Hi,
I was just wondering how many people take part in in-play horse racing trading. A strategy I have is to lay the fav in a jumps race and assess how it is travelling in running. If it's travelling well i close the trade but if it's struggling I let the trade run. My question is do you think this strategy can be profitable long-term and also I am using betfair live video to watch the race which is unreliable , how can i get a better quality feed?
In-Play Horse Racing Trading A big edge?
I use betfair live video feed and sometimes is a bit jerky but most of the time is ok.
Better than Channel 4 which is a few seconds behind. I would say be carefull in play speaking from experience. I know i am only a newbie at this. I would say sometimes you can get a few ticks looking at horses that are held up. You just get a feeling the way they are riding.
Better than Channel 4 which is a few seconds behind. I would say be carefull in play speaking from experience. I know i am only a newbie at this. I would say sometimes you can get a few ticks looking at horses that are held up. You just get a feeling the way they are riding.
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Crazyskier
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- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
If you were track side there are all manner of in-play strategies that can and do work. Attempting to do this by video link, whichever one you have, is always going to be behind the curve and though you might get some modest value some races, I'd suggest that you're always going to be picking up crumbs rather than 'a big edge' as per thread title.LaytheFav wrote:Hi,
My question is do you think this strategy can be profitable long-term and also I am using betfair live video to watch the race which is unreliable , how can i get a better quality feed?
altho laying, especially in the jumps, can bring significant gains, it all starts to get risky when you find you are either laying low and hoping for a stumble, or laying high when the runner drifts. i would say that the former (laying low), will probably lose you less money long term but will require you to set up a rigid set of metrics to determine if such a low odds runner is likely to fade during the race (or choosing the sweet spot to enter the trade as it drifts [sub 6.00 odds being a fair price point]).
i've churned thro many strategies that offer up heaps of promise on in-play, lay based strategies, only to find that you have 20-30 brilliant successes, wiped out by one rank outsider tanking back in. it's almost as tho a higher being takes a quick look at the current p&l and signals directly to the horse to get a move on and bring you back down to earth!!
anyway, that's been my experience.
i've churned thro many strategies that offer up heaps of promise on in-play, lay based strategies, only to find that you have 20-30 brilliant successes, wiped out by one rank outsider tanking back in. it's almost as tho a higher being takes a quick look at the current p&l and signals directly to the horse to get a move on and bring you back down to earth!!
anyway, that's been my experience.
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shakespeare
- Posts: 113
- Joined: Sat May 21, 2016 1:43 pm
You're not alone!jimibt wrote:i've churned thro many strategies that offer up heaps of promise on in-play, lay based strategies, only to find that you have 20-30 brilliant successes, wiped out by one rank outsider tanking back in. it's almost as tho a higher being takes a quick look at the current p&l and signals directly to the horse to get a move on and bring you back down to earth!!
anyway, that's been my experience.
It really depends on the race length and whether it's flat, short distances (5f -7f) or hurdles over a longer distance (1m to 3m). For me laying in running can only work 100% of the time by laying definite losers and then you're talking odds of +25 and therefore requiring a very large betting bank.
In recent times I have been trading 'laying the field' with a 'snipe' insurance. So I usually trade on longer races +1m4f, over the jumps, with a lay bet that depends on the number of runners. So, say we have at least 10 runners, then put in a lay the field bet at 3.0 and £20. With odds of 3.0 you need at least three runners to hit 3.0 but, and this is a fact, as soon as one runner hits 3.0, you 'snipe' and get a greening up opportunity. And 9 times out of 10, I take the green up profit (can be around £3 - £5) and don't even wait to see if three runners will hit 3.0. Of course there are those who will lay the field at 1.2 with much larger stakes (say £150) but my experience is that this is a stupid strategy and will not earn you bigger money in the long run.
Oh, and by the way, I only trade on handicap races where the field is all but equal (although that can be a fallacy).
In recent times I have been trading 'laying the field' with a 'snipe' insurance. So I usually trade on longer races +1m4f, over the jumps, with a lay bet that depends on the number of runners. So, say we have at least 10 runners, then put in a lay the field bet at 3.0 and £20. With odds of 3.0 you need at least three runners to hit 3.0 but, and this is a fact, as soon as one runner hits 3.0, you 'snipe' and get a greening up opportunity. And 9 times out of 10, I take the green up profit (can be around £3 - £5) and don't even wait to see if three runners will hit 3.0. Of course there are those who will lay the field at 1.2 with much larger stakes (say £150) but my experience is that this is a stupid strategy and will not earn you bigger money in the long run.
Oh, and by the way, I only trade on handicap races where the field is all but equal (although that can be a fallacy).
I've always traded inplay. I know many people say it a losing strategy but I don't agree. I don't use a live feed as the pictures can be delayed and misleading as well as a distraction. I find the best guide to the running are the ladders. I have the first four in the betting set up, then enter the market on the grid. I back horses for a 3% profit per trade, obviously the longer the race, the more trades you can get through...but never stay in the race beyond two thirds of it's running. I also lay, but always make sure I'm laying to liability, not stakes. That way you control your loss. Don't chase though, the market goes too fast. If the trade even looks like going south get out, accept the loss and move on.
Inplay trading is profitable with a very disciplined approach.
Inplay trading is profitable with a very disciplined approach.
Nothing will ever work 100% of the time and there's no such thing as a definite loser. People who try to make money that way are the ones who lay all the 1000 IR winners, because at one stage it looked a definite loser!oliver123 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 30, 2016 11:31 amIt really depends on the race length and whether it's flat, short distances (5f -7f) or hurdles over a longer distance (1m to 3m). For me laying in running can only work 100% of the time by laying definite losers and then you're talking odds of +25 and therefore requiring a very large betting bank.
"Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller"Derek27 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:13 pmNothing will ever work 100% of the time and there's no such thing as a definite loser. People who try to make money that way are the ones who lay all the 1000 IR winners, because at one stage it looked a definite loser!oliver123 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 30, 2016 11:31 amIt really depends on the race length and whether it's flat, short distances (5f -7f) or hurdles over a longer distance (1m to 3m). For me laying in running can only work 100% of the time by laying definite losers and then you're talking odds of +25 and therefore requiring a very large betting bank.
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ShaunWhite
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Well if they're miles ahead they usually trade at 1.02 1.03ish....so i'd guess the people who've studied it think about 2%