Trading Horse racing : 1000 Winner Conquest

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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2610
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:00 pm

After acheiving more then at times I thought was possible with trading I now and have been for some time been desperate to back a horse priced 1000 and win.

From betting I have had a 66/1 winner and an 80/1 second over the years but I have never managed to have a 100/1 winner. In fact probably only ever backed a couple priced that high.
Hence why ive never hit it lol.

However I am really eager to break the duck and eventually back a 100/1 winner with the bookies and a 1000 pre race and inplay.
Now I know this sounds crazy because I know how uncommon a 1000 winner is at pre race odds however I want to acheive it.

Obviously I could just back all at 1000 etc and just sit and wait until eventually one wins. Thats not really my aim as that is pointless.

I am looking to work on a methodical approach... even if the result doesnt turn out profitable but has reasons behind acheiving it.

So even if over 3 years i bet 3k and won 2k back using only certain runners to a selected criteria id be happy. Obviously a profitable system is ideal but i know is not realistic.

Looking for any stories or any advice... simply because of how little these things do happen. For example theres probably 10 horses everyday priced over 100/1 but we know 100/1 shots come about every few months. So i am looking for something just to acheive backing one but not betting them all. Something with some logic.

Welcome ideas.

Samo154
Posts: 90
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2015 11:44 am

Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:10 pm

Peterle and linusp.

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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2610
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:15 pm

If anyone has any pre race 1000 winner stats would be very appreciative.

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northbound
Posts: 512
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Mon Dec 04, 2017 8:40 am

Over the years I backed my fair share of 100/1+ winners (Betfair odds, pre-play). I did it by betting on plenty of unraced 2yo in Maiden horse races.

Be prepared to stomach plenty of losers before hitting a winner.

My bigger priced winners were probably Sweetchildomine (200/1, 2009) and another one at 330/1 in 2012.

Funny story about Sweetchildomine: I eyed it on Betfair one hour before the start but was unsure whether to throw money at it. Turned on the TV, the video for that Guns N Roses song was playing on, so decided to back the horse with about £7. It didn’t start well so I laughed at myself for being such a mug, but then picked up nicely in the last two furlongs to bring home the dough.

Another two related stories from my gambling days.

In January 2011 I sat really depressed in my office, turned on Betfair and saw Dorcas Lane at around 100/1. Thought about betting £100, but then told myself not to be stupid. I didn’t bet. The horse won. I probably went home even more depressed that night.

But the biggest miss of all was Navajo Chief in June 2009. I made around £1,000 betting the previous two days. When I came home from work that night, I saw Navajo Chief at around 100/1 and contemplated putting £200 on it. Didn’t have the balls. I only bet £33. The horse won.

If you like football, you can often get big priced winners by backing the draw at half time when the score is 3-0 in a match that should have been much tighter. Two weekends ago Dortmund led 4-0 and the draw was 500/1. It ended 4-4!

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marksmeets302
Posts: 505
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm

Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:04 am

I don't know your bankroll of course, but even 33 pounds sounds like a lot for such a bet. Let's do the math, and I'll give you very favorable conditions. Let's say you constantly bet on horses with odds 100, but they actually have odds 80 of winning (I'm sure you'll agree this a very healthy edge)

The optimum fraction of your bankroll to bet is given by the Kelly criterion and it is equal to (bp-(1-p))/b where b is the odds in the market and p is the probability of winning the bet. We have a 99 to 1 bet with a 79 to 1 chance of winning so b = 99 and p = 1/79. Plugging in those numbers gives 0.00269, so you bet slightly less than 0.3% of your bank to optimally grow your money. You bet 33, meaning that your bankroll is 12290.

Hmm, well okay I guess that's still very much in the realm of possibilities. But only with this nice edge. And take into account that overestimating your edge is worse than underestimating it; a reason most gamblers use half-kelly or quarter-kelly. If your bankroll is actually 12290 then with these conditions betting 200 will lead to sure ruin.

(northbound: again, I have no idea what of bankroll you have and maybe your edge is even greater that what I offered. Since you have been doing this for many years you're probably fine. I just thought it would be nice to throw this calculation in. Hopefully I've scared a couple of people into lowering their stakes)

spreadbetting
Posts: 1689
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Mon Dec 04, 2017 1:04 pm

SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:15 pm
If anyone has any pre race 1000 winner stats would be very appreciative.
Here's the 1000 BSP winners off my database

Crianza GB / Redc 19th Jun 19-06-2010 17:20
Maoi Chinn Tire GB / Weth 29th Oct 29-10-2010 15:55
Capture The Drama IRE / GowP 19th Mar 19-03-2016 14:45

Here's the CSV data of winners that traded 1000 pre off and their BSP so you can see if it's a blip as obviously some of the data does appear flawed with plenty of sub 20 BSP horses trading at max odds before the off. Plenty of times you'll find people trying to skew the Betfair graphs by self matching at large odds when the market opens. I can't remember off hand the minimum amounts Betfair show within this data set but £10 springs to mind. Betfair do also provide much more detail matched bet data with the first recorded match nd last recorded match but I never scraped that. Maybe someone will have that for the dates you need or where the data is stored as it appears Betfair have ceased with the data.betfair.com site now they're charging for the info at https://historicdata.betfair.com/#/home. historicdata only seems to go back to 2015 but the free data may be of use for recent winners.

"EVENT_ID","MENU_HINT","EVENT_NAME","EVENT_DT","SELECTION_ID","SELECTION_NAME","WIN_LOSE","BSP","PPWAP","MORNINGWAP","PPMAX","PPMIN","IPMAX","IPMIN","MORNINGTRADEDVOL","PPTRADEDVOL","IPTRADEDVOL","CH_num"
"124802625","GB / Newb 13th May","1m2f Mdn Stks","13-05-2016 16:15","941390","Ulysses","1","1.38","1.54","1.96","1000.00","1.37","1.47","1.01","22331.02","536629.50","171135.62","124802625941390"
"101859242","IRE / Navan 20th Oct","1m5f Hcap","20-10-2010 17:25","21312","Table Mountain","1","2.90","2.60","2.42","1000.00","2.31","7.00","1.01","3599.62","185196.80","144807.88","10185924221312"
"124808497","GB / Newb 14th May","1m2f Hcap","14-05-2016 16:30","10509481","Imperial Aviator","1","6.28","5.03","4.84","1000.00","4.20","11.00","1.01","97174.00","402940.46","155664.22","12480849710509480"
"121818226","GB / Wolv 14th Nov","1m1f Hcap","14-11-2015 21:15","7334240","Dove Mountain","1","8.00","8.24","10.91","1000.00","7.20","11.50","1.01","62.06","42758.04","28988.78","1218182267334240"
"127217104","IRE / Fairy 27th Sep","7f Mdn","27-09-2016 16:30","10427396","Truffles","1","9.93","11.76","13.22","1000.00","9.20","9.00","1.01","66.52","23786.44","76073.20","12721710410427396"
"135651047","IRE / Punch 18th Oct","2m NHF Stks","18-10-2017 17:20","15557363","Cordovan Brown","1","12.50","12.07","13.11","1000.00","7.00","16.50","1.01","134.12","20393.12","57714.90","13565104715557364"
"124803404","GB / Ham 13th May","6f Hcap","13-05-2016 19:55","9438226","Dodgy Bob","1","13.71","12.42","21.74","1000.00","10.50","16.50","1.01","622.10","36228.32","56463.16","1248034049438226"
"124808482","GB / Newb 14th May","1m4f Grp3","14-05-2016 14:45","8455670","Astronereus","1","16.63","15.74","14.98","1000.00","13.50","55.00","1.01","7925.32","53407.56","66591.38","1248084828455670"
"21126362","IRE / Tipp 7th Aug ","7f Hcap ","07-08-2008 19:35","2620559","Springfort ","1","17.99","9.25","9.71","1000.00","8.60","30.00","1.01","6.34","6258.20","47556.72","211263622620559"
"127629887","GB / MrktR 15th Oct","2m Mdn Hrd","15-10-2016 13:35","3600412","Southport","1","19.78","22.15","10.29","1000.00","10.50","22.00","1.01","203.70","6764.16","75579.62","1276298873600412"
"124808380","GB / Aint 13th May","2m1f Stks NHF","13-05-2016 20:40","11167808","Gustave Mahler","1","50.00","41.81","115.74","1000.00","32.00","55.00","1.01","72.66","4215.06","46825.44","12480838011167808"
"101517287","GB / Hayd 2nd Jul","1m2f Hcap","02-07-2010 20:50","2098357","Snow Dancer","1","70.00","60.90","19.54","1000.00","19.50","100.00","1.01","72.48","5551.48","38972.46","1015172872098357"
"125785612","IRE / Gal 26th Jul","2m2f Beg Chs","26-07-2016 17:45","8673050","Talk The Lingo","1","383.27","412.09","1.00","1000.00","220.00","450.00","1.31","0.00","435.88","29079.00","1257856128673050"
"128711153","IRE / Navan 10th Dec","2m Mdn Hrd","10-12-2016 12:00","12218705","Any Second Now","1","724.53","674.97","1.00","1000.00","210.00","1000.00","1.01","0.00","128.44","39245.86","12871115312218704"
"104929708","GB / Ludl 22nd Feb","2m Hcap Hrd","22-02-2012 15:40","2415561","Tayarat","1","777.80","465.95","116.48","1000.00","150.00","840.00","1.01","10.90","845.98","101140.38","1049297082415561"
"101296522","GB / FfosL 6th Apr","6f Mdn Stks","06-04-2010 14:55","4283712","Fayre Bella","1","814.82","857.02","102.41","1000.00","70.00","910.00","1.01","53.22","1081.66","65776.34","1012965224283712"
"131123923","GB / Newb 22nd Apr","1m Mdn Stks","22-04-2017 16:45","12730660","Duke of Bronte","1","880.09","985.13","1000.00","1000.00","700.00","1000.00","1.01","89.00","1379.18","75445.70","13112392312730660"
"101490505","GB / Redc 19th Jun","6f Mdn Stks","19-06-2010 17:20","4741942","Crianza","1","1000.00","670.12","274.99","1000.00","250.00","1000.00","1.01","8.00","718.26","106870.00","1014905054741942"
"123703552","IRE / GowP 19th Mar","2m4f Mdn Hrd","19-03-2016 14:45","8914096","Capture The Drama","1","1000.00","971.88","219.96","1000.00","220.00","1000.00","1.01","4.00","120.44","94904.12","1237035528914096"
"101893696","GB / Weth 29th Oct","2m Juv Hrd","29-10-2010 15:55","3786827","Maoi Chinn Tire","1","1000.00","770.75","256.99","1000.00","190.00","1000.00","1.01","23.24","663.08","245569.66","1018936963786827"
"21174329","GB / Salis 29th Aug ","6f Mdn Stks ","29-08-2008 16:35","3136575","Bermondsey Bob ","1","1001.00","977.74","1.00","1000.00","340.00","1000.00","1.15","0.00","341.52","147815.80","211743293136575"


As for simple stats

3 1000 BSP winners out of 12,469 runners setting off at 1000

21,029 runners traded at 1000 pre off 21 won (the dataset above)

User avatar
northbound
Posts: 512
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Mon Dec 04, 2017 1:46 pm

marksmeets302 wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:04 am
I don't know your bankroll of course, but even 33 pounds sounds like a lot for such a bet...
It was indeed, but those were just tales from my gambling days. I’m not betting like that anymore because, you’re right, long term it doesn’t work.

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northbound
Posts: 512
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Mon Dec 04, 2017 2:11 pm

Further to spreadbetting's post, here are 2017 winners with BSP of 100 or above.

FLAT

Code: Select all

datetime            cou  racecourse       description      name               bf_sp   
------------------  ---  ---------------  ---------------  -----------------  --------
2017-01-18 16:50    GB   Kempton          1m Hcap          Magic Mirror       151.75  
2017-03-09 15:20    GB   Southwell        7f Hcap          Hammer Gun         234.71  
2017-04-11 17:10    GB   Pontefract       1m Hcap          Rockwood           125.17  
2017-04-20 14:50    GB   Ripon            5f Nov Stks      Capla Dancer       131.85  
2017-04-22 16:45    GB   Newbury          1m Mdn Stks      Duke of Bronte     880.09  
2017-05-13 14:40    GB   Nottingham       5f Hcap          Mighty Zip         114.07  
2017-06-03 18:10    GB   Doncaster        2m PA Hcap Stks  Saleemah           205.31  
2017-06-04 15:40    IRE  Listowel         1m Mdn           Elusive Duchess    163.96  
2017-06-11 16:05    GB   Nottingham       1m Mdn Stks      Best of My Love    104.89  
2017-06-15 13:30    GB   Newbury          6f Nov Stks      Bullington Bandit  195.42  
2017-06-22 21:00    IRE  Leopardstown     1m7f Hcap        Eight And Bob      130.0   
2017-07-01 18:00    IRE  Curragh          2m Hcap          Three Kingdoms     220.18  
2017-07-03 17:00    GB   Pontefract       1m2f Hcap        Exclusive Waters   110.0   
2017-07-06 14:30    GB   Haydock          6f Nov Stks      Staxton            170.0   
2017-07-10 15:15    GB   Ayr              1m5f Hcap        Glenbank King      108.92  
2017-07-18 19:10    GB   Thirsk           1m4f Hcap        Hayward Field      120.6   
2017-07-29 15:00    GB   Ascot            7f Hcap Stks     Stamp Hill         137.97  
2017-08-01 15:00    GB   Goodwood         7f Grp2          Breton Rock        163.8   
2017-08-01 16:10    GB   Goodwood         6f Mdn Stks      Thechildrenstrust  499.64  
2017-08-07 19:15    GB   Windsor          1m2f Mdn Stks    Lawless Secret     250.0   
2017-08-28 14:45    GB   Ripon            1m2f Hcap        Bahkit             204.55  
2017-08-30 16:15    IRE  Bellewstown      1m Mdn           Accladora          160.0   
2017-09-05 18:20    GB   Kempton          6f Mdn Stks      Razzmatazz         170.0   
2017-09-30 15:35    GB   Newmarket        1m1f Hcap        Dolphin Vista      130.0   
2017-10-03 19:10    GB   Kempton          1m4f Mdn Stks    Isaac Bell         379.57  
2017-10-03 19:55    IRE  Dundalk          1m4f Mdn         Panther Soul       246.21  
2017-10-04 19:10    GB   Kempton          1m Nov Stks      Kassar             151.02  
2017-10-07 16:20    IRE  Limerick         7f Stks          Hit The Silk       130.99  
2017-10-13 18:30    IRE  Dundalk          7f Hcap          Vincita            247.17  
2017-10-14 18:45    GB   Kempton          1m Nov Stks      Indiscretion       560.0   
2017-10-17 17:30    GB   Leicester        1m2f Hcap        Villette           140.0   
2017-10-19 19:15    GB   Newcastle        6f Nursery       Cuppacoco          148.44  
2017-10-27 20:30    IRE  Dundalk          1m2f Hcap        Gilded Reflection  102.63  
2017-11-08 20:55    IRE  Dundalk          1m2f Hcap        Tropic Thunder     116.96  
2017-11-10 17:45    GB   Newcastle        7f Nov Stks      Blue Harmony       192.88  
2017-12-01 15:20    GB   Southwell        1m Hcap          Tilly Devine       463.21

JUMPS

Code: Select all

datetime            cou  racecourse       description      name               bf_sp   
------------------  ---  ---------------  ---------------  -----------------  --------
2017-01-15 13:10    GB   Kelso            2m Nov Hrd       Seemorelights      216.8   
2017-01-28 14:50    GB   Cheltenham       3m6f XC Hcap Ch  Urgent De Gregain  129.08  
2017-02-22 13:55    IRE  Punchestown      2m Mdn Hrd       Kilfenora          231.47  
2017-04-01 15:05    GB   Uttoxeter        2m4f Hcap Hrd    Classic Tune       135.13  
2017-05-01 14:05    GB   Warwick          2m Mdn Hrd       Rebel Yeats        253.85  
2017-05-21 15:35    IRE  Limerick         2m3f Chs         Windsor Higgins    286.27  
2017-05-25 19:45    IRE  Tipperary        2m Mdn Hrd       Tay Lane           268.88  
2017-07-05 16:50    GB   Worcester        2m7f Hcap Hrd    Amber Flush        166.63  
2017-11-11 15:30    IRE  Naas             2m3f Beg Chs     Mossback           168.49  
2017-11-30 12:40    GB   Towcester        2m5f Nov Hrd     Royal Magic        210.61  
2017-11-30 14:55    IRE  Thurles          2m Hcap Hrd      Pound A Stroke     136.32  
2017-12-02 13:55    IRE  Fairyhouse       2m2f Mdn Hrd     Discorama          470.65 

Halliday
Posts: 401
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:40 pm

Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:20 pm

SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:00 pm
After acheiving more then at times I thought was possible with trading I now and have been for some time been desperate to back a horse priced 1000 and win.

From betting I have had a 66/1 winner and an 80/1 second over the years but I have never managed to have a 100/1 winner. In fact probably only ever backed a couple priced that high.
Hence why ive never hit it lol.

However I am really eager to break the duck and eventually back a 100/1 winner with the bookies and a 1000 pre race and inplay.
Now I know this sounds crazy because I know how uncommon a 1000 winner is at pre race odds however I want to acheive it.

Obviously I could just back all at 1000 etc and just sit and wait until eventually one wins. Thats not really my aim as that is pointless.

I am looking to work on a methodical approach... even if the result doesnt turn out profitable but has reasons behind acheiving it.

So even if over 3 years i bet 3k and won 2k back using only certain runners to a selected criteria id be happy. Obviously a profitable system is ideal but i know is not realistic.

Looking for any stories or any advice... simply because of how little these things do happen. For example theres probably 10 horses everyday priced over 100/1 but we know 100/1 shots come about every few months. So i am looking for something just to acheive backing one but not betting them all. Something with some logic.

Welcome ideas.
Back in March 2017 in a thread about systems I said

" 2 This is an odd one and requires knowledge of trainer profiles etc and assessing quality of a trainers horse and the level of form of a stable over previous seasons ... In 2013/ 2014 Johnathon Portman had some huge priced placed horses making their debut but no winners

From Jan 1st 2015 up until now . He had 50 debut runners ... and 5 winners at odds of 66/1, 33/1, 25/1, 25/1 and 20/1 producing a level stakes profit of 124 points !!
Will it continue into 2017 or has it had its shelf life ? . Who knows ..."

Since then Indiscretion won for him at Kempton in October 2017 at odds of 100/1

Depending on what criteria you use . E.g. If you backed just 2/3 yo starting at odds of 66/1 or more that would have produce two winners since 2015 at odds of 66/1 and 100/1 but he had none in 2013/14

He's just a trainer whose stats I analyse . So who knows SHR you might do a lot worse than to back certain of his horses to get that that huge priced winner !!

LinusP
Posts: 1416
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:19 pm

SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:00 pm
After acheiving more then at times I thought was possible with trading I now and have been for some time been desperate to back a horse priced 1000 and win.

From betting I have had a 66/1 winner and an 80/1 second over the years but I have never managed to have a 100/1 winner. In fact probably only ever backed a couple priced that high.
Hence why ive never hit it lol.

However I am really eager to break the duck and eventually back a 100/1 winner with the bookies and a 1000 pre race and inplay.
Now I know this sounds crazy because I know how uncommon a 1000 winner is at pre race odds however I want to acheive it.

Obviously I could just back all at 1000 etc and just sit and wait until eventually one wins. Thats not really my aim as that is pointless.

I am looking to work on a methodical approach... even if the result doesnt turn out profitable but has reasons behind acheiving it.

So even if over 3 years i bet 3k and won 2k back using only certain runners to a selected criteria id be happy. Obviously a profitable system is ideal but i know is not realistic.

Looking for any stories or any advice... simply because of how little these things do happen. For example theres probably 10 horses everyday priced over 100/1 but we know 100/1 shots come about every few months. So i am looking for something just to acheive backing one but not betting them all. Something with some logic.

Welcome ideas.
So where you on it?

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/h ... 21399.1410

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