Horse Racing stats

[Angelbaby]

Does anyone use the winningwarlock.com site and if so have you found it useful for in play trades?

[iambic_pentameter]

I used it when I started out but thanks to some excellent advice on here, soon realised that there are a lot of other considerations when looking at an in running trade.

The best advice I can give, is not too assume that just because a runner is highly rated, that it will automatically trade lower in running.

A good starting point might be to focus on runners who have at least 10 previous trips - this way you can see if there are any patterns.

The other vital factor is stake size; ideally you want to only risk 2% of your bank for any in running trade and have an exit plan ie if the price goes against you, get out asap.

Best of luck

Iambic

[nigelk]

Have you considered the in-running comments? They could give a clue as to which way the price will initially go. For example:

Alsvinder is running in the 2:10 @ Lingfield tomorow (racing post f/cast 11/4). Have a look as his in running comments, Made all, soon led, took keen hold

Honeychile Ryder 1:45 Ayr, held up, mid division, in rear, always behind

[Angelbaby]

Thanks for advice.

I have been looking at horses that look like they are going to get a flyer or at least lead into the first fence (not looked at all weather in stalls yet) My success rate their has been pretty good so far watching betfair live feed getting out for around 10% on average (small stakes).

But as there are few opportunities for that I am considering dobbing as an addition. Patternform seems pretty good also has comments on previous runs.

I assume dobbing works better over the longer distances due to more chance of horses ability to shine through?

[ShaunWhite]

I assume dobbing works better over the longer distances due to more chance of horses ability to shine through?

It's a two edged sword, more time to shine but there's more time to fall too, unless it's an NHF.

[iambic_pentameter]

As Shaun says, it is a double edged sword.

Obviously there isn't a lot you can do if a horse falls (apart from wishing that jockey and horse are ok) but you would do well to watch videos of previous runs - I've found Sporting Life or Bet365's racing archive to be very good.

If you get any inkling that the horse isn't comfortable over the jumps, probably best to avoid.

Coming back to what I said about stakes earlier, it's important not to stake too much as if a horse does fall, then that is that and you will lose your full stake.

Even on the flat, if a horse doesn't get out of the stalls that can see the price go to 1000 never to return.

"Risk can always be calculated beforehand"

Iambic

[ANGELS15]

In answer to Angelbaby's question I use Winning Warlock site daily. I think it's a good site and definately useful for in play strategies.

However I've found that you have to be careful with their data as sometimes two horses with similar names get their stats combined. This tends to happen when you have a younger current horse's stats getting combined with another horse from several years ago with the same name. You tend to notice if say you have a 2yo maiden race and one of the horses has wins to it's name. on clicking on the horse you see form going back many years.

The guy who runs the site is really good when you point it out. Apparently he gets his data from betfair and that's how the mixups happen but he's able to amend the data once he has it.

[Angelbaby]

Thanks again everyone really good stuff.

I have another question regarding getting out in play when it goes your way.

I have been greening up to get out which I guess puts me at the back of the queue and I have missed my green and in some cases gone red. I am considering keeping a position in play to get out quicker but of course that wont allow my trade to run and fulfil its potential.

Ideally I would want to get out when I think the horse has reached its peak at the front and that is represented in the price.

How do you all in play traders approach this.

[ajdal]

Thanks again everyone really good stuff.

I have another question regarding getting out in play when it goes your way.

I have been greening up to get out which I guess puts me at the back of the queue and I have missed my green and in some cases gone red. I am considering keeping a position in play to get out quicker but of course that wont allow my trade to run and fulfil its potential.

Ideally I would want to get out when I think the horse has reached its peak at the front and that is represented in the price.

How do you all in play traders approach this.

There are a lot more profitable (and riskier) ways of trading the in-play market than front runners as that is the angle that many play, because it is so obvious with so much freely available data behind it.

However, if I might suggest... don't look for the point where it has reached its peak as you will be behind other traders who are watching the same things (unless you are prepared to pay big money to give you that time edge)... calculate how many times you are right to wrong... what % the price must move to turn those numbers profitable and get out at that point... the flaw with that is that you will be sometimes selling early on trades that look like they will shorten further... but what I do is remind myself it is just a numbers game.

[Angelbaby]

I'm obviously naïve in this why do some traders get a head start, are you referring to automation or something more sinister?

Are you also advising to have a predefined and lay bet in the marekt exit due to the above?

[ShaunWhite]

I'm obviously naïve in this why do some traders get a head start, are you referring to automation or something more sinister?

Are you also advising to have a predefined and lay bet in the marekt exit due to the above?

It's not sinister, they're just highly efficient traders, with very fast systems and possibly a team of people who are highly skilled at reading the progress of a horse in a race, maybe even communicating from the course itself.

By the time you've spotted a horse is doing well or badly on BF tv, someone with a lifetime's experience with horses, and a professional setup behind them, will have done their trade and be sat back with a cuppa.

Sinister things do happen though, remember that there's many ways a jock can communicate while riding, a glance behind just before a fence, an adjustment of the goggles, two whips on the right or one on the left....can all send a message to an insider that (s)he's about to push a horse forward or slow it down. You'll never know, and even BF analysing their data, as they do, would find it hard to prove.

[Angelbaby]

But we all have a 2 second delay on in play bets is that correct?

[trader44]

some people dont have 2 seconds delay. some people get live pictures in boxes on the course,some stand on the course itself and see it as its happening and trade on their i pads ,others get live feeds , basically RUK is approx 1-1.5 seconds behind the track players, betfair video can be 2 seconds behind and ATR is miles behind . so there are traders with a big advantage time wise but it doesnt mean it cant be done in running without those advantages as clearly it can

[ShaunWhite]

1 to 1.5 secs delay on RUK? It's been 6 since they went HD.

Yes Angel, everyone has the same 2sec bet placement delay imposed by BF.

[bobs71]

This guy apparently bets professionally in-running from home

http://www.starsportsbet.co.uk/meeting-matthew-mantle/