I do similar things to look for inefficiencies within these supposedly 'efficient' markets. The only way we profit from the markets as traders or punters is if we're getting value prices on a consistent basis.LinusP wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:44 pm
One thing I have started doing recently is analysing the 'edge' my bets get against SP (as a function of amount staked) this is helping me pinpoint when the market at 'x' was wrong. Of course looking at individual races its almost pointless but over just 1 day you tend to get a value which holds true long term. Would love to see how this value (edge) varies from manual trader to trader and if it has any relevance to their pnl.
A simple exercise for traders to find where they're obtaining most value is to download their betting history and simply sum the total of their back bets and the total of their lay bets. In an ideal world both figures should be positive otherwise, for various reasons, they're throwing away value when either opening or closing bets especially if they continually open from a fixed angle of backing or laying.