Your carpenter isn't efficient, he's inept.Derek27 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:33 amI think the problem with this thread is that we haven't clearly defined efficiency, and may have different ideas of what it is, hence the confusion.
If you instruct a carpenter to cut two three-foot planks of wood, he cuts one 2 feet 10 inches and the other 3 feet 2 inches - is he an efficient carpenter because they average 3 feet exactly ?
Efficient, implide chance = actual chance. Deviates on individual selections, accurate over a large sample.
'Efficient Market Hypothesis - EMH'
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is an investment theory that states it is impossible to "beat the market" because stock market efficiency causes existing share prices to always incorporate and reflect all relevant information. According to the EMH, stocks always trade at their fair value on stock exchanges, making it impossible for investors to either purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices. As such, it should be impossible to outperform the overall market through expert stock selection or market timing, and the only way an investor can possibly obtain higher returns is by purchasing riskier investments.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/ef ... thesis.asp
Find and replace Stock with Horse...it's a 'hypothesis' because the individual case described can't be proven although the overall effect can.