Trading Horse racing : Efficiency of Horse Racing Markets on Betfair

The sport of kings.
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Derek27
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Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:10 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:12 am

Thanks for pointing out that prices can move a long way in 5 minutes. But rather than assuming i'm some sort of idiot, it could have been that you didn't understand my reply or that I didn't understand your question.
Sorry, I mentioned 5 minutes in the previous post.

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to75ne
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Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:11 pm

Euler wrote:
Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:55 pm
When people talk about efficient markets, I ask..... Is the earth round or flat?
your day to day perspective and instinct would say flat, but your eduction and intelligence would overide your day to day experience and state round.

Derek27
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Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:13 pm

Ferru123 wrote:
Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:37 am
Hi Derek

I am no statistician, but I was pretty sure that was wrong, so I tested it.

The results of laying at BSP to a risk of 1 point per horse with zero commission for all runners in 2017 are as follows:

Risk 122409
P/L 1.093162656
ROI 8.93041E-06

The results when you assign each horse a random percentage chance between 1% and 99% are as follows:

Risk 122409
P/L: 451222.3991
ROI: 368.62%

I would therefore conclude that BSP beats randomness. :)
I think you may have applied the wrong test.

Did you apply random percentages adding up to 100% for each race?

If not, what was the overrounds, 500% ? That would explain the massive profit if you're backing.

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Euler
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Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:14 pm

Only 536 people have actually been high enough above the earth to see it as a globe, perhaps, unless that is a conspiracy. But 7bn people live on it, I'm plumping for flat.

Derek27
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Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:16 pm

Look at it this way, toss a coin 1000 times and offer 4/5 heads and 5/4 tails. That's an inefficient market without question, but back both of them or back them at random and you'll break even.

Derek27
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Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:18 pm

Euler wrote:
Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:14 pm
Only 536 people have actually been high enough above the earth to see it as a globe, perhaps, unless that is a conspiracy. But 7bn people live on it, I'm plumping for flat.
It's been a while since I've been at 40,000 feet, but I thought you could just about see the curvature of the earth from that height ?

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Euler
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Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:21 pm

Whether the earth is round or flat depends on your perspective and where you observing from. If you argue heavily for one or the other you can be both right and wrong at the same time.

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to75ne
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Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:24 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:18 pm
Euler wrote:
Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:14 pm
Only 536 people have actually been high enough above the earth to see it as a globe, perhaps, unless that is a conspiracy. But 7bn people live on it, I'm plumping for flat.

i dont believe for a minute your an idiot flat earther, so i can only assume this is part of your contrarian approach to trading (going against the crowd).
It's been a while since I've been at 40,000 feet, but I thought you could just about see the curvature of the earth from that height ?
i think you need a lot higher 15 to 20 miles

Derek27
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Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:29 pm

Could have been imagining it or seeing what I'm expecting.

(I don't know what we're all doing discussing the shape of the world early Saturday afternoon). :lol:

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to75ne
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Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:32 pm

[quote=Derek27 post_id=143222 time=1517059788 user_id=19806

(I don't know what we're all doing discussing the shape of the world early Saturday afternoon). :lol:
[/quote]

:)

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