The going in-play problem. Yes, another thread about it.

[utubecomment21]

I do understand your dilemma and i used to do the same, use inplay to get me out of trouble. It kinda worked ... until it didn't!!!!!!

For me, this looks like a simple matter of discipline. Trading is not rocket science, if one particular method doesn't work for you, stop doing it. For me, I never was any good at pre-race trading. I'd win a few pennies then pick up a £10 fine! It doesn't matter how Peter or anyone else does it, for whatever reason I just couldn't get the hang of it.

I've been far more successful with inplay trading where i can sort of 'semi-automate' the process with various methods; off-tick, inplay trader (my fav), or simply hitting the back or lay and letting it run. Of course these methods are backed up by a lot of analysis when relevant, or by the simple fundamentals including 'watching the race live'.

I tailor my trading method to me, not to what others are doing, and i have to be super disciplined. OK occasionally i go outside my rules, but then i get bitten, which then serves to remind me why I've established the rules in the first place.

[Crazyskier]

I swore to myself that day never ever to do this again, yet still find myself doing the same as so very often lay to back IP with horses at SPs of 15s DO pay off and even though they often win, they usually reach 25+ IP... The issue is that on the odd occasion they run a smooth race and go on to win without the price ever exceeding the SP which is what happened to me.

One of the things you might wish to consider when laying your 15/1 shots is that even though the market may have slight inefficiences at that price point the simple fact is those stats will be from laying every single 15/1 shot. It's very likely you'll miss a few races here and there, if we look at the probabilities of the races you'll miss, are you likely to miss one of those 15 losers or the 1 winner?

Probabilities mean that the likelihood of missing one will be a loser - as most are at 15s. Not sure I get the point Spreadbetting, but am sincerely interested in hearing more from you on this?

CS

[spreadbetting]

I'm just saying when you use simple stats to enter or exit positions you really need to be using that strategy every race it occurs if you expect to benefit from any real or perceived 'edge'. The more people dip in and out because things go wrong the more likely they are to erode any slight edge they originally may have had. Forums are littered with threads of people astonished of their bad luck at paying a 100/1 shot with a cheeky lay. The higher the odds the more chances you have at getting away with it short term and the more ingrained these habits become. When the inevitable happens it's usually far too ingrained into your trading 'get out of jail' strategy even though you know at the back of your mind it doesn't really work.

[Derek27]

If you have a large liability on an outsider, don't just think of the likelihood of it winning but how much you stand to lose - and trade out for a loss!

I remember numerous occasions as a child saying "please get me out of this god, and I'll be a good boy from now on". The reality, as you might guess, is that I never did become a good boy and carried on the old same mischief.

Embarrassing to admit it, but I've done the same thing as a trader in the past. Rather than blow a day's profit I let a big liability run thinking I'll be more careful in future - and bang went two weeks profit!

[Crazyskier]

Forums are littered with threads of people astonished of their bad luck at paying a 100/1 shot with a cheeky lay. The higher the odds the more chances you have at getting away with it short term and the more ingrained these habits become. When the inevitable happens it's usually far too ingrained into your trading 'get out of jail' strategy even though you know at the back of your mind it doesn't really work.

If you have a large liability on an outsider, don't just think of the likelihood of it winning but how much you stand to lose - and trade out for a loss!
Rather than blow a day's profit I let a big liability run thinking I'll be more careful in future - and bang went two weeks profit!

I guess that's the thing we all must learn to accept if we're to be successful at this 'game' long term. Loss management is surely as important if not more so, than winning exit points / green ups. Thanks for the replies guys.

CS

[mcgoo]

I recall how a month or 2 ago(I forget exactly when), I had traded over 250+ horse markets without going in play.. I had just increased my stake level to $100 (big trader me ). I thought I was ready but the trade instantly went into loss ..the psychology of the increased stake had got to my monkey brain and I couldn't take the bigger red..I let it go IP.I was lucky and didn't get done over but it shocked me so much I have since somehow mentally blocked the capacity not to close out and have thus far refused to go IP at all but I remain wary.I also realise I still suck at manual trading and will probably do for the rest of time. A few weeks later I wasn't concentrating and accidentally went IP...tried desperately to get out but couldn't get there fast enough and took a big loss....Karma
It's a great hobby, I love the challenge & will keep trying...but this game is truly not suited to everyone as a profession. I have found more success in tennis and cricket than horses so will probably tinker there for a while, ..while I wait for my wife (scary maths brain and better risk appetite than me) to supersede my vain efforts if she ever stops changing the world one business at a time .
I reckon a safety servant consistently (and there in lies the rub) applied should sort your issue mate. Good luck

[spreadbetting]

People need to stop treating going in play as some kind of bogeyman where it's inevitable you'll lose all your money. Until the race has finished you've always a chance to close your trades inplay, obviously if you're inexperienced with inplay odds movements you'll probably have to close at worse odds but you can still close even in a 5f race. People just need to have a set plan for the few times they get caught out and close, the same they would if the trade was running away from them pre off.

It almost seems that once the market's gone inplay people are using it as an excuse for their bad trades to become straight bets. I'd guess they're already in some kind of 'sod' it mode because things aren't going their way, the off time is loaming and letting bets run has come off for them in the past. There are enough TV, radio feeds etc to give you a good indication of when a race is due so people really shouldn't be getting caught out too often and even if they do it's only one race. They need to start addressing the reasons why they have some reluctance to close rather than using inplay as some kind of excuse when it doesn't work out.

[Niko]

Not experienced enough to comment but deliberately going in play back to lay seems to be working ok for me at the moment. From my earliest caan berry videos it's always been seen as taboo,:but with a bit of thought in running is fun!!

[Niko]

at the forced edit caan berry

[Derek27]

The issue isn't so much letting a trade go in play - if it was your original intention to let the trade go in play and you accept that the trade may not get closed, that's fine. The problem is letting a trade go in play at a far greater risk than intended, simply because you don't want to take a loss.

[LeTiss]

I have no idea how many times I've posted my own quote on the BA Forum, but I'm gonna do it one last time. The reason I keep posting it, is because it's the one thing which trips people up again and again - "The difference between a successful trader and a bankrput one, is what they do when face with a red screen"

I'd love to never post that again here, but I fear it won't be the last, as having an aversion to losses is what kills many traders. You can study graphs until you're blue in the face, but everybody occasionally loses, even PW. If you can't accept that, if you can't 'red up' and move on, then you're in big trouble

[spreadbetting]

People love to look for scapegoats to hide their failings, in play is just a convenient one for trading.

[ShaunWhite]

People love to look for scapegoats to hide their failings, in play is just a convenient one for trading.

+1
Going in-play isn't the problem it's the consequence of a problem.
Anyone can take the small day to day reds, it's the unexpected big ones that freak people out and do unplanned things.

[RicHep365]

People love to look for scapegoats to hide their failings, in play is just a convenient one for trading.

+1
Going in-play isn't the problem it's the consequence of a problem.
Anyone can take the small day to day reds, it's the unexpected big ones that freak people out and do unplanned things.

100%, when I've let it go inplay it's because I've f*cked up in an epic manner, doubled down on a losing position that just continues going against me and compounds the misery, then let it go inplay to try and claw it back.

I have an automatic green up at 10 secs before the off at the moment, although if a race is delayed a while I'll turn it off.

[gutuami]

watch it from minute 10: https://youtu.be/DUd8XA-5HEk?t=10m20s