Trading Horse racing : The going in-play problem. Yes, another thread about it.

The sport of kings.
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spreadbetting
Posts: 1535
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:55 pm

First thing you need to realise is that going In-Play is not the problem, the problem is you can't seem to close out once your market has gone red so you're hanging in hoping things will turn then blaming in-play.

How many trades do you usually scratch or red out?

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Dallas
Posts: 8119
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm

Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:56 pm

DLB999 wrote:
Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:49 pm
Deposited a very small bank to get going again, I managed to last a couple of days without going in play. I thought I had got it down. Clearly not, picture attached of what happened today. The big red is the inplay loss, then I got nailed by a grey hound race, that is a different matter though as the market suspended then went in play.

How long shall i keep trying before banning myself from all exchanges? Serious question here.
Approx how much was your loss at the time you should of greened up / market went in-play?

DLB999
Posts: 12
Joined: Sat Jan 14, 2017 12:14 am

Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:02 pm

Scratch quite often, towards the end of the day I had decided to up my stakes, things where ok, than suddenly I found myself about -£4.50ish. It happened very quickly and there were seconds to go before it went in play.

I should have just stuck to the original £2/5 stakes I was using I guess. This p/l is pretty much how most of my trading days go. Hardly any loses and the majority of green. I dont even know what to say really.

Spreadbetting, you're right.

spreadbetting
Posts: 1535
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:25 pm

As soon as you see newer traders with screenshots of all winning markets you instinctively know they're usually overstretching themselves to keep that 100% green record. So many will take unneccessary risks to ensure they have a winning market and because they usually take risks at higher odds they usually go in their favour and it reinforces that risk taking mentality until they inevitably get caught out. I know we all trade differently but 100% green rates are just unacheivable, think my strike rate is around 75%

DLB999
Posts: 12
Joined: Sat Jan 14, 2017 12:14 am

Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:39 pm

Well this one shot is from yesterday. I had way more loses and they were heavier, but I didnt go in play. I was more swing trading yesterday, where today I just stuck to scalping. Just once again today I lost my mind.
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spreadbetting
Posts: 1535
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:48 pm

It's not the problem you went in play but why didn't you just red up, it was a NH race and the winner was held up so surely the chance to close would have been there.

Derek27
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Location: UK

Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:21 pm

DLB999 wrote:
Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:49 pm
Deposited a very small bank to get going again, I managed to last a couple of days without going in play. I thought I had got it down. Clearly not, picture attached of what happened today. The big red is the inplay loss, then I got nailed by a grey hound race, that is a different matter though as the market suspended then went in play.

How long shall i keep trying before banning myself from all exchanges? Serious question here.
Dallas asked you how much would be your loss if you closed before going in-play. It's difficult to help you if you don't answer.

It's entirely up to you how long you go on for, but personally I would do one of two things. Either give up immediately, or give myself on final chance. Perhaps if you know it's your last chance you would be less likely to do it again ?

It's obviously a psychological problem but if you can't get to grips with this quickly trading may not be your game. Closing trade and cutting losses is one of the very basics of trading and one of the first things you need to master.

DLB999
Posts: 12
Joined: Sat Jan 14, 2017 12:14 am

Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:33 pm

I did put a figure in the reply I gave, it was about £-4.50 before going in play. Original bank was £20 a few days ago, i started at £24.50 today. So the red would have been about 18%. I see now allowing such a situation to happen was ridiculous. Not as ridiculous as losing the lot though.

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ShaunWhite
Posts: 3194
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:57 pm

DLB999 wrote:
Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:39 pm
Well this one shot is from yesterday. I had way more loses and they were heavier, but I didnt go in play. I was more swing trading yesterday, where today I just stuck to scalping. Just once again today I lost my mind.
Everyone's different but I heard something in a book the other day that might help. It's not new or groundbreaking but you never know what nugget is going to help...

The author was talking about setting your maximum risk % before you open a position. (but if you set it too small or you stake too big you'll hit it before your stopping point). How about starting at something like 10% of your stake so if you have £20 on the table you're allowed to lose up to £2. You'll start to accept reds up to £2 as being job well done instead of it being a loss. Go over £2 and you've lost control. You'll see that 10% puts your out quite a long way away so gives you plenty of breathing space. Once you're used to it then maybe 5% of stake would be more like it.

The other thing that's an interesting exercise is to do yourself a chart or table with stake, strike rate, max allowed loss, average win you need to break even, what you'd like to win, number of races etc . You'll see that if you keep the losses within what you are allowed to lose then even with a modest strike rate the wins don't need to be especially big or you might only need a lesser strike rate than you think. It's very illuminating seeing what size the cogs need to be in your trading machine.

Anyway, one way or another start your session knowing what's normal, ie how the figures you're seeing relate to what you hoped to do. To survive the psych you have to make losing feel like a win, if it's on your plan and within budget, it is. The aim isn't to win, it's to trade well. Trade well and you win.

Here's where the old timers chime in about the long game and not having targets in a market.... But if you can't get through the day without a mistake then you'll never get to a month's worth of decent results to review and start to see the long game.

Btw that 10% loss of stake assumes your stake is just a fraction of your bank. I'm not advocating losing your bank in 10% chunks.

Anna List
Posts: 143
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:05 pm

I'm probably being a butinsky and have written about this before but I'll write about this again.

I see two problems here:

1. Staking

2. Race analysis.

Let's look at staking first:

Analyse your past performance as a trader and determine the maximum number of trades in a row that you have actually lost. Let's call this the Actual Longest Losing run or ALLR.

Now, using your strike rate and the number of past trades, determine the maximum number of trades in a row that you ought to have theoretically lost. Let's call this the Theoretical Longest Losing run or TLLR.

Now, take the longer of the TLLR and ALLR and multiply by 3.5. Let's call this the maximum LLR or MLLR.

Now take your betting bank and divide it by the MLLR.

This is your maximum exposure per bet (stake if you place a back bet first and liability if you place a lay bet first).

Exceed the maximum exposure on a bet and you are asking for trouble.

Now let's look at Race Analysis.

Hands up all those traders who have a reasonable idea which horses in the race might win and which horses will probably lose.

Those who put their hands up, you can go because you don't need me. You know whether or not it's safe-ish to let your unmatched trade go in play.

Now, those who didn't put their hands up, why didn't you?

Ah, yes, I see. You don't know the first thing about horses. That's fine. I don't know the first thing about trading. We can't know everything. AND THAT'S WHY I DON'T TRADE and it's the reason why YOU SHOULDN'T LET YOUR UNMATCHED BETS GO IN PLAY.

Ah, but you want to let your unmatched bets go in play. Fine. THEN LEARN ABOUT RACING AND HORSES.

You don't want to.

Fine. Then don't let your unmatched trades go in play.

You want to let your unmatched bets go in play and you don't want to learn about horses and racing?

Fine. If losing is fine with you, JFDI.

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