Trading Horse racing : The times they are a changing

The sport of kings.
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Anna List
Posts: 143
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:22 am

I've read a few posts on this forum that state that the betting environment is changing.

My apologies to their authors. I don't have time to seek them out.

I can tell you about my experience and hope that others are able to comment.

I have 3 backing systems, 3 laying systems and 1 trading system. For the purposes of this discussion, let's ignore the trading system for obvious reasons.

In most cases, I have data going back years for these systems and they are all exhibiting the same trend, even though the rules are different for each system. Over time, I have noticed the trend increasing and is getting stronger and stronger.

What's the trend?

My backing systems are far more effective over the jumps than over the flat.

My laying systems are far more effective over the flat than over the jumps.

Knowing the stats of flat and jumps races, this is hardly surprising.

What is surprising is that these trends are increasing. They shouldn't be because I'm not changing the systems in any way, shape or form. The system rules are the same and have been for years. The trends should be static. Yet, they are not. They are increasing and have been steadily increasing for a few years now.

Others have stated in their posts that the betting environment is changing. Well, now, so am I and I have no logical explanation.

Comments welcome.

ajdal
Posts: 94
Joined: Tue Jun 09, 2015 1:05 am

Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:06 pm

Anna List wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:22 am
I've read a few posts on this forum that state that the betting environment is changing.

My apologies to their authors. I don't have time to seek them out.

I can tell you about my experience and hope that others are able to comment.

I have 3 backing systems, 3 laying systems and 1 trading system. For the purposes of this discussion, let's ignore the trading system for obvious reasons.

In most cases, I have data going back years for these systems and they are all exhibiting the same trend, even though the rules are different for each system. Over time, I have noticed the trend increasing and is getting stronger and stronger.

What's the trend?

My backing systems are far more effective over the jumps than over the flat.

My laying systems are far more effective over the flat than over the jumps.

Knowing the stats of flat and jumps races, this is hardly surprising.

What is surprising is that these trends are increasing. They shouldn't be because I'm not changing the systems in any way, shape or form. The system rules are the same and have been for years. The trends should be static. Yet, they are not. They are increasing and have been steadily increasing for a few years now.

Others have stated in their posts that the betting environment is changing. Well, now, so am I and I have no logical explanation.

Comments welcome.
I have pretty much the same results..

I think the small fields in NH have resulted in traders over backing favs...

Anna List
Posts: 143
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:56 pm

ajdal wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:06 pm
Anna List wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:22 am
I've read a few posts on this forum that state that the betting environment is changing.

My apologies to their authors. I don't have time to seek them out.

I can tell you about my experience and hope that others are able to comment.

I have 3 backing systems, 3 laying systems and 1 trading system. For the purposes of this discussion, let's ignore the trading system for obvious reasons.

In most cases, I have data going back years for these systems and they are all exhibiting the same trend, even though the rules are different for each system. Over time, I have noticed the trend increasing and is getting stronger and stronger.

What's the trend?

My backing systems are far more effective over the jumps than over the flat.

My laying systems are far more effective over the flat than over the jumps.

Knowing the stats of flat and jumps races, this is hardly surprising.

What is surprising is that these trends are increasing. They shouldn't be because I'm not changing the systems in any way, shape or form. The system rules are the same and have been for years. The trends should be static. Yet, they are not. They are increasing and have been steadily increasing for a few years now.

Others have stated in their posts that the betting environment is changing. Well, now, so am I and I have no logical explanation.

Comments welcome.
I have pretty much the same results..

I think the small fields in NH have resulted in traders over backing favs...
Thanks for the reply, good sir, but what of Rome, er, sorry, the flat?

spreadbetting
Posts: 1688
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:10 pm

Without knowing the exact details of your systems and the amunts you're taking out it's hard to say why you're on an upward trend. I'd say well done and milk it for all it's worth whilst you can. The markets are continually evolving and in that evolution it does leave behind quirks in the market that others may either have not spotted or have more profitable edges so simply ignore them. For horseracing the in-play and pre off markets have pretty much merged now people are aware they can close out their pre off postions inplay on say front runners or held up horses.

Anna List
Posts: 143
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:26 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:10 pm
Without knowing the exact details of your systems and the amunts you're taking out it's hard to say why you're on an upward trend. I'd say well done and milk it for all it's worth whilst you can. The markets are continually evolving and in that evolution it does leave behind quirks in the market that others may either have not spotted or have more profitable edges so simply ignore them. For horseracing the in-play and pre off markets have pretty much merged now people are aware they can close out their pre off postions inplay on say front runners or held up horses.
Thanks for your reply. Much appreciated.

I hear what you say but this is an ongoing trend that has been getting stronger and stronger over a 10 year period and over thousands of races. It doesn't look like a quirk the markets left behind to me although some would argue that a 10 year period isn't very long and thousands of races isn't very many.

If I was the only one noticing this, I would have subscribed to idea that markets are quirky and left it at that. However, I'm not the only one noticing the strangeness of the markets these days. I read more and more comments about this subject as time goes by. They are by people who run their own methods and systems.

Something is afoot and it's not twelve inches. :D

ajdal
Posts: 94
Joined: Tue Jun 09, 2015 1:05 am

Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:28 pm

Anna List wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:26 pm
spreadbetting wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:10 pm
Without knowing the exact details of your systems and the amunts you're taking out it's hard to say why you're on an upward trend. I'd say well done and milk it for all it's worth whilst you can. The markets are continually evolving and in that evolution it does leave behind quirks in the market that others may either have not spotted or have more profitable edges so simply ignore them. For horseracing the in-play and pre off markets have pretty much merged now people are aware they can close out their pre off postions inplay on say front runners or held up horses.
Thanks for your reply. Much appreciated.

I hear what you say but this is an ongoing trend that has been getting stronger and stronger over a 10 year period and over thousands of races. It doesn't look like a quirk the markets left behind to me although some would argue that a 10 year period isn't very long and thousands of races isn't very many.

If I was the only one noticing this, I would have subscribed to idea that markets are quirky and left it at that. However, I'm not the only one noticing the strangeness of the markets these days. I read more and more comments about this subject as time goes by. They are by people who run their own methods and systems.

Something is afoot and it's not twelve inches. :D
There are some very aggressive tactics in the markets recently... I primarily back to lay and this has been my most profitable year by a long stretch....

Anna List
Posts: 143
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:14 pm

ajdal wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:28 pm
Anna List wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:26 pm
spreadbetting wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:10 pm
Without knowing the exact details of your systems and the amunts you're taking out it's hard to say why you're on an upward trend. I'd say well done and milk it for all it's worth whilst you can. The markets are continually evolving and in that evolution it does leave behind quirks in the market that others may either have not spotted or have more profitable edges so simply ignore them. For horseracing the in-play and pre off markets have pretty much merged now people are aware they can close out their pre off postions inplay on say front runners or held up horses.
Thanks for your reply. Much appreciated.

I hear what you say but this is an ongoing trend that has been getting stronger and stronger over a 10 year period and over thousands of races. It doesn't look like a quirk the markets left behind to me although some would argue that a 10 year period isn't very long and thousands of races isn't very many.

If I was the only one noticing this, I would have subscribed to idea that markets are quirky and left it at that. However, I'm not the only one noticing the strangeness of the markets these days. I read more and more comments about this subject as time goes by. They are by people who run their own methods and systems.

Something is afoot and it's not twelve inches. :D
There are some very aggressive tactics in the markets recently... I primarily back to lay and this has been my most profitable year by a long stretch....
If I've got 'me logic the right way round' (not always) then your ROI should be improving and should have been improving since the start of November.

Am I correct?

If so, it should begin to dip in early April.

LinusP
Posts: 1416
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:09 am

Anna List wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:22 am
What is surprising is that these trends are increasing. They shouldn't be because I'm not changing the systems in any way, shape or form. The system rules are the same and have been for years. The trends should be static. Yet, they are not. They are increasing and have been steadily increasing for a few years now.

Others have stated in their posts that the betting environment is changing. Well, now, so am I and I have no logical explanation.

Comments welcome.
Good to see you posting again Anna.

I am always intrigued by posts like this, my strategies work right up to the limit of market capacity to the point that almost all my time is spent on being faster or more invisible. So if a strategies ROI is increasing I put more money in, if you don't someone else will! So I guess my question is why are you not taking advantage?

Anna List
Posts: 143
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:57 am

LinusP wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:09 am
Anna List wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:22 am
What is surprising is that these trends are increasing. They shouldn't be because I'm not changing the systems in any way, shape or form. The system rules are the same and have been for years. The trends should be static. Yet, they are not. They are increasing and have been steadily increasing for a few years now.

Others have stated in their posts that the betting environment is changing. Well, now, so am I and I have no logical explanation.

Comments welcome.
Good to see you posting again Anna.

I am always intrigued by posts like this, my strategies work right up to the limit of market capacity to the point that almost all my time is spent on being faster or more invisible. So if a strategies ROI is increasing I put more money in, if you don't someone else will! So I guess my question is why are you not taking advantage?
Thanks LinusP.

I am taking advantage. Believe me, I am.

One friend of mine, a few years ago, said, "Who the hell cares why a system works if it wins?". Well, the fact is, he should have because he lost so much money using his system that he ended up declaring himself bankrupt. He admitted to losing £300k but my feeling is that he lost more.

Through his mistakes, I learned.

I like to understand, if I lost, why I lost. That allows me to improve.

I like to understand, if I won, why I won. That also allows me to improve.

In short, I like to understand.

Maybe I'm a control freak. Maybe I'm just a freak. Dunno.

If the markets are changing, I'd like to understand what is changing and why. In that way, I can take even more advantage than I already do. But that's not the main reason. I figure that the more I understand, the more that I can protect and control what I already do. That way, there is less chance of me ending up in the poor house. Call it self preservation if you will.

Basically, if the markets are changing, I wanna know what, how and why.

I'm also not so stupid as to believe that I can't do this on my own.

Look what happened to Andrew Wiles when he worked on his own.

ajdal
Posts: 94
Joined: Tue Jun 09, 2015 1:05 am

Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:39 am

Anna List wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:14 pm
ajdal wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:28 pm
Anna List wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:26 pm


Thanks for your reply. Much appreciated.

I hear what you say but this is an ongoing trend that has been getting stronger and stronger over a 10 year period and over thousands of races. It doesn't look like a quirk the markets left behind to me although some would argue that a 10 year period isn't very long and thousands of races isn't very many.

If I was the only one noticing this, I would have subscribed to idea that markets are quirky and left it at that. However, I'm not the only one noticing the strangeness of the markets these days. I read more and more comments about this subject as time goes by. They are by people who run their own methods and systems.

Something is afoot and it's not twelve inches. :D
There are some very aggressive tactics in the markets recently... I primarily back to lay and this has been my most profitable year by a long stretch....
If I've got 'me logic the right way round' (not always) then your ROI should be improving and should have been improving since the start of November.

Am I correct?

If so, it should begin to dip in early April.

Actually, you're pretty much spot on.

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