The times they are a changing
I'm glad.ajdal wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:39 am
Actually, you're pretty much spot on.
What happens if you change the usage? ie. If it's a backing system, swap to laying in winter or vice versa? What then?
Also is the 'smashing it' part increasing, decreasing or is stable?
What about the 'dying' part? Is is getting better, worse or no different?
Profitability has declined all round over time, it was much better 5 years ago than now. But flat season has always outperformed jumps.Anna List wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:13 pmWhat happens if you change the usage? ie. If it's a backing system, swap to laying in winter or vice versa? What then?
Also is the 'smashing it' part increasing, decreasing or is stable?
What about the 'dying' part? Is is getting better, worse or no different?
When I say it dies in jump season, I just mean it's not as good, rather than not profitable, so you'd lose your shirt laying the same horses.
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See could this be an example of data deja vu?
I could offer data that suggests there's hardly any difference between jumps & flat; that said it could be important - but it depends on vital assumptions.
My data had the following assumptions: - I don't go in-play, highly specific technical setups (dependent on volume, price, time, etc).
I could offer data that suggests there's hardly any difference between jumps & flat; that said it could be important - but it depends on vital assumptions.
My data had the following assumptions: - I don't go in-play, highly specific technical setups (dependent on volume, price, time, etc).
Ah, when you said that it dies on the jumps, I thought that you meant that it dies on the jumps.RicHep365 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:13 pmProfitability has declined all round over time, it was much better 5 years ago than now. But flat season has always outperformed jumps.Anna List wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:13 pmWhat happens if you change the usage? ie. If it's a backing system, swap to laying in winter or vice versa? What then?
Also is the 'smashing it' part increasing, decreasing or is stable?
What about the 'dying' part? Is is getting better, worse or no different?
When I say it dies in jump season, I just mean it's not as good, rather than not profitable, so you'd lose your shirt laying the same horses.
If my logic's right, you are either backing the non-favourites or laying the favourites?
Is that correct?
No trend following, backing at value vs SPAnna List wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:28 pmAh, when you said that it dies on the jumps, I thought that you meant that it dies on the jumps.RicHep365 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:13 pmProfitability has declined all round over time, it was much better 5 years ago than now. But flat season has always outperformed jumps.Anna List wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:13 pm
What happens if you change the usage? ie. If it's a backing system, swap to laying in winter or vice versa? What then?
Also is the 'smashing it' part increasing, decreasing or is stable?
What about the 'dying' part? Is is getting better, worse or no different?
When I say it dies in jump season, I just mean it's not as good, rather than not profitable, so you'd lose your shirt laying the same horses.
If my logic's right, you are either backing the non-favourites or laying the favourites?
Is that correct?
Have you thought about splitting the results into 2 groups?Anna List wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:28 pmAh, when you said that it dies on the jumps, I thought that you meant that it dies on the jumps.RicHep365 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:13 pmProfitability has declined all round over time, it was much better 5 years ago than now. But flat season has always outperformed jumps.Anna List wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:13 pm
What happens if you change the usage? ie. If it's a backing system, swap to laying in winter or vice versa? What then?
Also is the 'smashing it' part increasing, decreasing or is stable?
What about the 'dying' part? Is is getting better, worse or no different?
When I say it dies in jump season, I just mean it's not as good, rather than not profitable, so you'd lose your shirt laying the same horses.
If my logic's right, you are either backing the non-favourites or laying the favourites?
Is that correct?
One group contains favourites only. The other contains non-favourites only.
Then compare the two?
The favourites (according to BSP) are much more profitable, but they probably weren't the favourite at the point I backed them. So I'm inherently getting better value on those than any other selection.Anna List wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:27 pmHave you thought about splitting the results into 2 groups?Anna List wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:28 pmAh, when you said that it dies on the jumps, I thought that you meant that it dies on the jumps.RicHep365 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:13 pm
Profitability has declined all round over time, it was much better 5 years ago than now. But flat season has always outperformed jumps.
When I say it dies in jump season, I just mean it's not as good, rather than not profitable, so you'd lose your shirt laying the same horses.
If my logic's right, you are either backing the non-favourites or laying the favourites?
Is that correct?
One group contains favourites only. The other contains non-favourites only.
Then compare the two?
I don't have the data to check where in the pecking order the horses were at the point I placed the bets unfortunately.
Tien.RicHep365 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:30 amThe favourites (according to BSP) are much more profitable, but they probably weren't the favourite at the point I backed them. So I'm inherently getting better value on those than any other selection.
I don't have the data to check where in the pecking order the horses were at the point I placed the bets unfortunately.