The times they are a changing

The sport of kings.
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RicHep365
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:42 am

Have to say mine’s completely the opposite, smashes it all through the flat season and dies on the jumps, to the point you might as well turn it off November to March.
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Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Can't it profit on the AW?
RicHep365
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:42 am

Naffman wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:37 am
Can't it profit on the AW?


I find AW to be the least reliable in winter
Anna List
Posts: 157
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

ajdal wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:39 am
Anna List wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:14 pm
ajdal wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:28 pm


There are some very aggressive tactics in the markets recently... I primarily back to lay and this has been my most profitable year by a long stretch....
If I've got 'me logic the right way round' (not always) then your ROI should be improving and should have been improving since the start of November.

Am I correct?

If so, it should begin to dip in early April.

Actually, you're pretty much spot on.
I'm glad.
Anna List
Posts: 157
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

RicHep365 wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:09 am
Have to say mine’s completely the opposite, smashes it all through the flat season and dies on the jumps, to the point you might as well turn it off November to March.
What happens if you change the usage? ie. If it's a backing system, swap to laying in winter or vice versa? What then?

Also is the 'smashing it' part increasing, decreasing or is stable?

What about the 'dying' part? Is is getting better, worse or no different?
RicHep365
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:42 am

Anna List wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:13 pm
RicHep365 wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:09 am
Have to say mine’s completely the opposite, smashes it all through the flat season and dies on the jumps, to the point you might as well turn it off November to March.
What happens if you change the usage? ie. If it's a backing system, swap to laying in winter or vice versa? What then?

Also is the 'smashing it' part increasing, decreasing or is stable?

What about the 'dying' part? Is is getting better, worse or no different?
Profitability has declined all round over time, it was much better 5 years ago than now. But flat season has always outperformed jumps.

When I say it dies in jump season, I just mean it's not as good, rather than not profitable, so you'd lose your shirt laying the same horses.
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

See could this be an example of data deja vu?

I could offer data that suggests there's hardly any difference between jumps & flat; that said it could be important - but it depends on vital assumptions.

My data had the following assumptions: - I don't go in-play, highly specific technical setups (dependent on volume, price, time, etc).
Anna List
Posts: 157
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

RicHep365 wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:13 pm
Anna List wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:13 pm
RicHep365 wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:09 am
Have to say mine’s completely the opposite, smashes it all through the flat season and dies on the jumps, to the point you might as well turn it off November to March.
What happens if you change the usage? ie. If it's a backing system, swap to laying in winter or vice versa? What then?

Also is the 'smashing it' part increasing, decreasing or is stable?

What about the 'dying' part? Is is getting better, worse or no different?
Profitability has declined all round over time, it was much better 5 years ago than now. But flat season has always outperformed jumps.

When I say it dies in jump season, I just mean it's not as good, rather than not profitable, so you'd lose your shirt laying the same horses.
Ah, when you said that it dies on the jumps, I thought that you meant that it dies on the jumps.

If my logic's right, you are either backing the non-favourites or laying the favourites?

Is that correct?
RicHep365
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:42 am

Anna List wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:28 pm
RicHep365 wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:13 pm
Anna List wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:13 pm


What happens if you change the usage? ie. If it's a backing system, swap to laying in winter or vice versa? What then?

Also is the 'smashing it' part increasing, decreasing or is stable?

What about the 'dying' part? Is is getting better, worse or no different?
Profitability has declined all round over time, it was much better 5 years ago than now. But flat season has always outperformed jumps.

When I say it dies in jump season, I just mean it's not as good, rather than not profitable, so you'd lose your shirt laying the same horses.
Ah, when you said that it dies on the jumps, I thought that you meant that it dies on the jumps.

If my logic's right, you are either backing the non-favourites or laying the favourites?

Is that correct?
No trend following, backing at value vs SP
Anna List
Posts: 157
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

Anna List wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:28 pm
RicHep365 wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:13 pm
Anna List wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:13 pm


What happens if you change the usage? ie. If it's a backing system, swap to laying in winter or vice versa? What then?

Also is the 'smashing it' part increasing, decreasing or is stable?

What about the 'dying' part? Is is getting better, worse or no different?
Profitability has declined all round over time, it was much better 5 years ago than now. But flat season has always outperformed jumps.

When I say it dies in jump season, I just mean it's not as good, rather than not profitable, so you'd lose your shirt laying the same horses.
Ah, when you said that it dies on the jumps, I thought that you meant that it dies on the jumps.

If my logic's right, you are either backing the non-favourites or laying the favourites?

Is that correct?
Have you thought about splitting the results into 2 groups?

One group contains favourites only. The other contains non-favourites only.

Then compare the two?
RicHep365
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:42 am

Anna List wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:27 pm
Anna List wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:28 pm
RicHep365 wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:13 pm


Profitability has declined all round over time, it was much better 5 years ago than now. But flat season has always outperformed jumps.

When I say it dies in jump season, I just mean it's not as good, rather than not profitable, so you'd lose your shirt laying the same horses.
Ah, when you said that it dies on the jumps, I thought that you meant that it dies on the jumps.

If my logic's right, you are either backing the non-favourites or laying the favourites?

Is that correct?
Have you thought about splitting the results into 2 groups?

One group contains favourites only. The other contains non-favourites only.

Then compare the two?
The favourites (according to BSP) are much more profitable, but they probably weren't the favourite at the point I backed them. So I'm inherently getting better value on those than any other selection.

I don't have the data to check where in the pecking order the horses were at the point I placed the bets unfortunately.
Anna List
Posts: 157
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

RicHep365 wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:30 am
Anna List wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:27 pm
Anna List wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:28 pm


Ah, when you said that it dies on the jumps, I thought that you meant that it dies on the jumps.

If my logic's right, you are either backing the non-favourites or laying the favourites?

Is that correct?
Have you thought about splitting the results into 2 groups?

One group contains favourites only. The other contains non-favourites only.

Then compare the two?
The favourites (according to BSP) are much more profitable, but they probably weren't the favourite at the point I backed them. So I'm inherently getting better value on those than any other selection.

I don't have the data to check where in the pecking order the horses were at the point I placed the bets unfortunately.
Tien.
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