Trading Horse racing : Section for Value

The sport of kings.
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2389
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:50 am

Thought I would start a topic for value. I have been creating my own betting forecast for my trading for a few months and have found it really helpful in finding value and good trades which help support those moves a little bit more and think a collection of knowledge can help us all.

I always create my book at 100%. My book is always created with no current price or book influence and entirely my own opinion.

I am using this as an experiment and hopeful we can all follow along,
I will use my trading knowledge using the same stakes to trade these races on betdaq with only one trade per runner allowed and any price that is priced over my forecast will be staked at sp at 1 minute to post time for the same stakes.

Obviously, it may not be possible to do this with 100% attention as I will be focusing on trading every day as normal but will chose a handful of races each day that I have no intention of trading and today I have two.


My stakes will be as follows. 1.01-2.00 £25 stake.2-3s £17.50 3-4s £12.50. 4-6s £6. 6-10s £3 anything over £10 will be £2 stake.

I stick with flat and AW racing (well currently just AW racing).

Chosen Lingfield today:

1.30 Lingfield.

1. Miss Munity 4.0
2. Assanilka 3.0
3. Lava Light5.0
4. Highland Pass10
5. French Mix 10
6. Hipz 10

2.00 Lingfield.

1. Clement 6.5
2. Iron Ryan 5.0
3. Outer Space 3.0
4. Varsovian 5.5
5. Captain Lars 10
6. Mr Andros 15
Last edited by SeaHorseRacing on Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2389
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:49 pm

Iron Ryan was 15 to 20ish when I posted my forecast. 6s now. Pretty pleased with that assessment.

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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2389
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:09 pm

About £2.80 profit on betting but made just short of £5 trading. Will post results when I can. Interesting.

LinusP
Posts: 1350
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:24 pm

SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:50 am
My stakes will be as follows. 1.01-2.00 £25 stake.2-3s £17.50 3-4s £12.50. 4-6s £6. 6-10s £3 anything over £10 will be £2 stake.
Not heard of Kelly?

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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2389
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:57 pm

Enlighten me. Always here to learn

Derek27
Posts: 1985
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:17 pm

LinusP wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:24 pm
SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:50 am
My stakes will be as follows. 1.01-2.00 £25 stake.2-3s £17.50 3-4s £12.50. 4-6s £6. 6-10s £3 anything over £10 will be £2 stake.
Not heard of Kelly?
Backing horses to return the same amount (which approximates to SHR's staking plan) is a form of the Kelly principle that assumes that the true chances of winning is very slightly greater than the odds. It's useful for testing strategies without spending excessive time calculating true chances.

It makes me laugh when people test systems/tipsters to level stakes, using the same stake for a 33/1 shot as they would an even money favourite.

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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2389
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:34 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:17 pm
LinusP wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:24 pm
SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:50 am
My stakes will be as follows. 1.01-2.00 £25 stake.2-3s £17.50 3-4s £12.50. 4-6s £6. 6-10s £3 anything over £10 will be £2 stake.
Not heard of Kelly?
Backing horses to return the same amount (which approximates to SHR's staking plan) is a form of the Kelly principle that assumes that the true chances of winning is very slightly greater than the odds. It's useful for testing strategies without spending excessive time calculating true chances.

It makes me laugh when people test systems/tipsters to level stakes, using the same stake for a 33/1 shot as they would an even money favourite.

Ah ok, I didnt know it was called Kelly principle. Yes I agree I have just done a rough method to try and make stakes abit more cleaner but this is just a test to compare difference between trading and betting and hopefully learn something.

LinusP
Posts: 1350
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:01 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:17 pm
LinusP wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:24 pm
SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:50 am
My stakes will be as follows. 1.01-2.00 £25 stake.2-3s £17.50 3-4s £12.50. 4-6s £6. 6-10s £3 anything over £10 will be £2 stake.
Not heard of Kelly?
Backing horses to return the same amount (which approximates to SHR's staking plan) is a form of the Kelly principle that assumes that the true chances of winning is very slightly greater than the odds. It's useful for testing strategies without spending excessive time calculating true chances.

It makes me laugh when people test systems/tipsters to level stakes, using the same stake for a 33/1 shot as they would an even money favourite.
Yeh your stake should be a function of your edge/bankroll.

Code: Select all

edge = odds/prediction-1.0  # can be clipped as full kelly is a bit scary
kelly_size = edge/(odds-1.0)*bankroll

User avatar
SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2389
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:14 pm

LinusP wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:01 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:17 pm
LinusP wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:24 pm


Not heard of Kelly?
Backing horses to return the same amount (which approximates to SHR's staking plan) is a form of the Kelly principle that assumes that the true chances of winning is very slightly greater than the odds. It's useful for testing strategies without spending excessive time calculating true chances.

It makes me laugh when people test systems/tipsters to level stakes, using the same stake for a 33/1 shot as they would an even money favourite.
Yeh your stake should be a function of your edge/bankroll.

Code: Select all

edge = odds/prediction-1.0  # can be clipped as full kelly is a bit scary
kelly_size = edge/(odds-1.0)*bankroll
Anyone have a spreadsheet on that formula or could pinpoint me in the direction of doing so in excel?

Derek27
Posts: 1985
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:44 pm

The old Timeform phone service used to stake to return 10% of bank, if betting on the true chance odds. i.e. 5% stake on an even money chance, 2% on a 4/1 chance, 1% on a 9/1 chance.

This is exactly the same as using the Kelly criterium where you assume the odds you get are 11% higher that the true odds, 10/1 for a 9/1 chance or 5/1 for a 9/2 chance.

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