Trading Horse racing : Section for Value

The sport of kings.
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2550
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:07 pm

8.45 Wolverhampton

1. Gold Flash 10.0
2. Chaucer's Tale 8.0
3. Joey's Destiny 8.0
4. Awesome Allan 23.0
5. Lucky Lodge 5.5
6. Kafoo 4.0
7. Corporal Maddox 12.0
8. Prince Jai 13.0
9. Frank The Barber 34.0

spreadbetting
Posts: 1605
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:49 pm

SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:50 am
I will use my trading knowledge using the same stakes to trade these races on betdaq with only one trade per runner allowed and any price that is priced over my forecast will be staked at sp at 1 minute to post time for the same stakes.
Why will you only be backing? Surely a lot of value will be available to lay also, i.e. you have Gold Flash at 10 and it's currently 4.5. Also what 'edge' will you be taking , backing at any price over your 100% forecast book would give you little worthwhile edge on many runners.

I'm not having a dig btw as I've done similar things in the past making my own tissues and all it showed me was I was useless at it, but also the providers of newspaper tissues were just as bad :) The other thing I always noticed with out of line tissues is that the value to be had is usually early doors as markets do start to correct the more people that enter them. That's why it's very easy for people like Hugh Taylor to show long term profits by picking off and quoting bets on bady priced runners where little if any real money is actual laid at the prices.
Last edited by spreadbetting on Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Derek27
Posts: 2560
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:06 pm

I used to gamble successful but the reason I never laid horses (other than very short priced) is that it's the same as backing long odds-on. The potential for profit is quite small.

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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2550
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:12 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:49 pm
SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:50 am
I will use my trading knowledge using the same stakes to trade these races on betdaq with only one trade per runner allowed and any price that is priced over my forecast will be staked at sp at 1 minute to post time for the same stakes.
Why will you only be backing? Surely a lot of value will be available to lay also, i.e. you have Gold Flash at 10 and it's currently 4.5. Also what 'edge' will you be taking , backing at any price over your 100% forecast book would give you little worthwhile edge on many runners.

I'm not having a dig btw as I've done similar things in the past making my own tissues and all it showed me was I was useless at it, but also the providers of newspaper tissues were just as bad :) The other thing I always noticed with out of line tissues is that the value to be had is usually early doors as markets do start to correct the more people that enter them. That's why it's very easy for people like Hugh Taylor to show long term profits by picking off and quoting bets on bady priced runners where little if any real money is actual laid at the prices.

One other thing would be remove any reference to the wife's account, they do read forums.
Thanks for your input buddy.

I just want to try and build a comparison to see if trading based on a tissue price. For example. Only interested in a selection to trade if I believe it has been priced incorrectly.

I am also really curious to know if and how many winners are winning much shorter then what i think they should be, there's no point backing value in every race if 75% of races are won by horses that are priced too short. Just found this way of thinking really interesting lately.

After your input it has alswo got me thinking.

Is it easier to find a value bet or is it easier to find a value lay? Are most winning horses overpriced or are they underpriced. Is their a bias in any way?
For example, On the AW Charlie Apple Godolphin newcomers, are always favourite and are always short. Surely these are priced too short..

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SeaHorseRacing
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Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:20 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:06 pm
I used to gamble successful but the reason I never laid horses (other than very short priced) is that it's the same as backing long odds-on. The potential for profit is quite small.
I didn't even think about laying until spreadbetting said so :lol:

But thinking about it, taking value it should all be about turnover and laying would increase that... wouldn't it?

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SeaHorseRacing
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Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:22 pm

poetic today wtaf! :lol: :lol:

spreadbetting
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Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:23 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:06 pm
I used to gamble successful but the reason I never laid horses (other than very short priced) is that it's the same as backing long odds-on. The potential for profit is quite small.
I don't quite get that way of thinking, the potential profit is in your edge over the market not in the price of the runner.

Derek27
Posts: 2560
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:28 pm

It would but it's highly risky - imagine 3 losing lays on the bounce taking a large chunk of your bank. Sure, you'll get it back if the value is there but it'll test your nerves to the limit!

I think it's bettet to look for the overpriced horses resulting from the underpriced favourite.

Derek27
Posts: 2560
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:34 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:23 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:06 pm
I used to gamble successful but the reason I never laid horses (other than very short priced) is that it's the same as backing long odds-on. The potential for profit is quite small.
I don't quite get that way of thinking, the potential profit is in your edge over the market not in the price of the runner.
Back a horse at 1/9, even if you got 93% winners it's a small percentage profit with large potential losses. At odds of 3/1 a 20% profit from 30% winners is achievable with far less risk.

bobs71
Posts: 50
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:22 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:41 pm

SeaHorse - Re - Kelly criterion - These may assist
Kelly Criterion Calculator.xlsx
Kelly Criterion spreadsheet example.xls
and a manuscript written by Ed Thorp (google him) in pdf on how best to use it
https://www.dropbox.com/s/dk94pmjcveyvd ... p.pdf?dl=0
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