Trading Horse racing : US Races

The sport of kings.
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cmuddle
Posts: 51
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:12 pm

Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:27 pm

Have I observed it correctly that short priced favourites seem to lose more frequently in the US races than UK races?

gazuty
Posts: 1022
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am

Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:06 am

cmuddle wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:27 pm
Have I observed it correctly that short priced favourites seem to lose more frequently in the US races than UK races?
How big is your observation set? How long have you been capturing the data?

Derek27
Posts: 1998
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:46 am

I don't keep stats but I trade both sides of the Atlantic and haven't noticed much difference.

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ShaunWhite
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Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:59 am

Without proper stats over at least 500 races it's just guesswork. Recentism plays a big part in anecdotal observations.

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ANGELS15
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Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

Sat Mar 03, 2018 7:45 am

I agree you need to look at a large sample and at all the tracks. However what I've observed is the opposite. If anything the favourites seem to have a much higher strike rate than UK racing. However I doubt you could find it profitable to back them blind. In the US there seem to be large numbers of races where you have the equivalent of a 5/4 favourite, 6/4 second favourite and 15/8 third favourite with the winner coming from the top 3 in the betting a high percentage of the time. Also they have a different type of racing i.e mainly claimers and maidens often uncompetitive and favourites seem to mop up a lot. All tracks are left handed, fields seem to be limited to a maximum of 12. Races are run at full blast from the off and the distances are usually from sprint up to 1m, the odd 1m 1f. Favourites very rarely seem to be run off their feet and are often well in contention by the final bend.

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ShaunWhite
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Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:15 pm

ANGELS15 wrote:
Sat Mar 03, 2018 7:45 am
seem to have a much higher strike rate than UK racing.

However I doubt you could find it profitable to back them blind.

There seem to be large numbers of races.... a high percentage of the time.

often well in contention by the final bend.
It's all a bit vague. You can't tell anything about the climate by looking at the weather.

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cmuddle
Posts: 51
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:12 pm

Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:43 pm

just yesterday I layed all of the selections between odds 2 and 3 at Tampa Bay and Turf Paradise and all of them lost :?

you are maybe right it is good to get the data and do proper analysis.

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