Cheltenham Festival 2018
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3219
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
In my experience, as a smaller trader, I found the In-Play Trader invaluable. After all the millions matched pre-race by the pro's, I settled down and picked up the scraps.Groovyelms wrote: ↑Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:07 pmHi All,
I can't beleive I am the only person that hates cheltenham week, I feel it is reserved for the very very very big traders only.
Great racing of course and the spectacle is eyecatching. But trading.....is at best questionable, to get matched you have to have started trading last week or possibly last year! you know what I mean....
groovy
Focussed on the 5 TV races only, 1 lay to back trade only, resulted in 5 out of 5, increasing the initial bank by 12.5%.
My strategy is L2B the front runners when there's cause to do so. (That's my entry point). I then use the automation to green up. (My exit point).
Example on day 1 was Faugheen. The stable companion of the favourite lit him up and the pace was too quick. First signs of distress the market reacted first, I then saw what I needed and entered with one click. In micro seconds the green up completed. (L 12.00 B 16.11). (be prepared to red trade if market goes the other way)
It's important to remain adaptable and use the delay in the feed to your advantage. If in doubt, stay out and be aware of F.O.M.O.
Betdaq/matchbook have identical pricing to Betfair, with mkts often deeper.
If u pure punter, at 0% comm, into a 100.5% over-round, it would be hard to beat matchbook, unless u prefer Betfair Apps etc.
Betfair have had it to themselves for too long .. competition has to be good, and I hope we see a new landscape.
If u pure punter, at 0% comm, into a 100.5% over-round, it would be hard to beat matchbook, unless u prefer Betfair Apps etc.
Betfair have had it to themselves for too long .. competition has to be good, and I hope we see a new landscape.
- SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
I agree, If I was betfair I would have had the sportsbook/casino under a different brand.megarain wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:59 amBetdaq/matchbook have identical pricing to Betfair, with mkts often deeper.
If u pure punter, at 0% comm, into a 100.5% over-round, it would be hard to beat matchbook, unless u prefer Betfair Apps etc.
Betfair have had it to themselves for too long .. competition has to be good, and I hope we see a new landscape.
- SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
- SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
I used to struggle with big markets, say used to been doing this only 3 years, but for anyone struggling. A profitable trader may trade differently but for me in a Cheltenham market. You cannot allow your position to go behind "generally" you should be scratching a swing position very quickly.Groovyelms wrote: ↑Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:07 pmHi All,
I can't beleive I am the only person that hates cheltenham week, I feel it is reserved for the very very very big traders only.
Great racing of course and the spectacle is eyecatching. But trading.....is at best questionable, to get matched you have to have started trading last week or possibly last year! you know what I mean....
groovy
They tend to move one way or the other, I also wouldn't advise opening swing trades in the last few minutes as the actions pretty much gone and your never get that move.
With scalping and swing trading, I am out of the trades for 0 profit the second I see the money going and going the opposite direction. Wheras in a normal day to day race, if I am confident I would allow my position to happen even if it starts to move the other way and only close if I think something has changed.
Love how their adverts say Betfair have had the best odds for the last decade on most races, problem is they don't mention that it's the exchange that has achieved that, they just want people betting on the sportsbook product that has just about the same odds as every other bookie.megarain wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:59 amBetdaq/matchbook have identical pricing to Betfair, with mkts often deeper.
If u pure punter, at 0% comm, into a 100.5% over-round, it would be hard to beat matchbook, unless u prefer Betfair Apps etc.
Betfair have had it to themselves for too long .. competition has to be good, and I hope we see a new landscape.
Btw saw a vlog of someone betting at the festival and put a back bet on Kalishnikov (first race) at 11/4, that is exactly the reason why bookies (especially big firms) think that punters aren't price sensitive.
can only echo that, only got involved in two Cheltenham markets yesterday & made 0.01pSeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:14 amI used to struggle with big markets, say used to been doing this only 3 years, but for anyone struggling. A profitable trader may trade differently but for me in a Cheltenham market. You cannot allow your position to go behind "generally" you should be scratching a swing position very quickly.Groovyelms wrote: ↑Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:07 pmHi All,
I can't beleive I am the only person that hates cheltenham week,
groovy
They tend to move one way or the other, I also wouldn't advise opening swing trades in the last few minutes as the actions pretty much gone and your never get that move.
With scalping and swing trading, I am out of the trades for 0 profit the second I see the money going and going the opposite direction. Wheras in a normal day to day race, if I am confident I would allow my position to happen even if it starts to move the other way and only close if I think something has changed.
Here is what happened to the favourites at Cheltenham yesterday to £100 stakes from ten minutes out: -
Chelt - 13:30 - Lay to open @ 3.10 to 3.15 for 1 ticks & £1.59
Chelt - 14:10 - Lay to open @ 1.90 to 1.93 for 3 ticks & £1.55
Chelt - 14:50 - Lay to open @ 6.20 to 6.80 for 3 ticks & £8.82
Chelt - 15:30 - Lay to open @ 1.69 to 1.73 for 4 ticks & £2.31
Chelt - 16:10 - Back to open @ 1.62 to 1.51 for 11 ticks & £7.28
Chelt - 16:50 - Back to open @ 5.90 to 5.70 for 2 ticks & £3.51
Chelt - 17:30 - Lay to open @ 6.40 to 6.60 for 1 ticks & £3.03
Chelt - 13:30 - Lay to open @ 3.10 to 3.15 for 1 ticks & £1.59
Chelt - 14:10 - Lay to open @ 1.90 to 1.93 for 3 ticks & £1.55
Chelt - 14:50 - Lay to open @ 6.20 to 6.80 for 3 ticks & £8.82
Chelt - 15:30 - Lay to open @ 1.69 to 1.73 for 4 ticks & £2.31
Chelt - 16:10 - Back to open @ 1.62 to 1.51 for 11 ticks & £7.28
Chelt - 16:50 - Back to open @ 5.90 to 5.70 for 2 ticks & £3.51
Chelt - 17:30 - Lay to open @ 6.40 to 6.60 for 1 ticks & £3.03
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
12 ticks one way and 13 ticks the other way? Last 10mins looks pretty stable.
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- Posts: 1248
- Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:22 pm
Douvan price looks huge or am I missing something here