From Gambler To Trader But With A Big Edge

[mhorro]

Hi,

I have my own bespoke software which I have mentioned on this forum before that crunches UK Horse racing form data and then produces a condensed list of horses for me to gamble on.

I have now stopped gambling and now trade these horses in running with green offset and I must say my nerves are better and profit as increased.

Plus I can easily automate this strategy with nominated runner.

It's quite funny I do not have the stress anymore if the horse comes 2nd etc. as if it runs well I have my money ( Green ).

I usually trade 5 to 7 horses per day this way.

Thanks,

Mark

[spreadbetting]

Most people are willing to sacrifice some profits for an easier ride and smoother pnl when switching to trading, so you're lucky your software is now finding the sweet spot to automatically exit the market and find extra value if it's increased profits too. I've actually gone the opposite way and the longer I've botted the more I'm prepared to hold onto any value I've obtained rather than risk throwing it away by closing for an easier ride.

[Derek27]

I'm probably getting a reputation for being negative on this forum, but how do you know you have a big edge if you've just started trading - you need to give it a fair amount of time before establishing whether you have an edge or how big it is.

Good luck with it though.

[SeaHorseRacing]

Hi,

I have my own bespoke software which I have mentioned on this forum before that crunches UK Horse racing form data and then produces a condensed list of horses for me to gamble on.

I have now stopped gambling and now trade these horses in running with green offset and I must say my nerves are better and profit as increased.

Plus I can easily automate this strategy with nominated runner.

It's quite funny I do not have the stress anymore if the horse comes 2nd etc. as if it runs well I have my money ( Green ).

I usually trade 5 to 7 horses per day this way.

Thanks,

Mark

I think your point is flawed IMO.

I think your best way forward in whatever you do is to learn to accept the losers, understand why you have losers...

Here's an example: I only look at my trading balance once a week, If you asked me what my profit was two races ago unless it was spectacular I wouldn't be able to tell you.

You're emotionally involved, what happens in that very bad week of trading in running, will you go back to just betting again? You will have bad spells, understand the odds of your system, there are plenty of calculators online.

I bet on the horses too and I know every year I will hit a run of around 12/15 losers... doesnt mean Im a loser.

The exchanges markets are practically 1% on most markets, the reason why so many people lose is they cannot handle losers. Money management and mind control is all you need, when you over come this I would recommend doing either trading or betting depending on what makes the most cash.

[Derek27]

I only look at my trading balance once a week,

I was on to Betfair pretty quick when I was hit with the turnover charge without warning, and eventually got the money refunded. But if Betfair find out that you don't check your balances on a daily basis they might just take £50 out of your account and go down the pub with it.

[SeaHorseRacing]

My question to you and I am doing this only to help.

Are you now making more money because you are less emotionally involved?

Traders make money on turn over, your turn over so much so quickly, whereas with gambling you can use much bigger stakes and you usually have a massive return investment in comparison.

If you have a good betting system which is capable of having large stakes with a high return on investment I think it's likely you will make more money there... but its questions i think you should be asking yourself as I or others cant really answer.

[LinusP]

I think your best way forward in whatever you do is to learn to accept the losers, understand why you have losers...

Here's an example: I only look at my trading balance once a week, If you asked me what my profit was two races ago unless it was spectacular I wouldn't be able to tell you.

So how does this work?

[SeaHorseRacing]

I only look at my trading balance once a week,

I was on to Betfair pretty quick when I was hit with the turnover charge without warning, and eventually got the money refunded. But if Betfair find out that you don't check your balances on a daily basis they might just take £50 out of your account and go down the pub with it.

It took me about 4 weeks to give me the discipline to not look at my balance, it was life changing from a trading perspective. The whole point of trading is to take a chunk out at the end of the month, that's the way I look at it. Only on rare occasions, where I think I may have not hedged by mistake will i check my balance

[LinusP]

It's quite funny I do not have the stress anymore if the horse comes 2nd etc. as if it runs well I have my money ( Green ).

So you sacrifice profit so you can sleep better? Also not quite sure what the point of this thread is.

[SeaHorseRacing]

I think your best way forward in whatever you do is to learn to accept the losers, understand why you have losers...

Here's an example: I only look at my trading balance once a week, If you asked me what my profit was two races ago unless it was spectacular I wouldn't be able to tell you.

So how does this work?

By not looking at my balance I am completely eliminating small cycles of winners and losers, which is having no effect on my mental stability.

When you know youve had 4 losers on the trot, it can get to you.

My decision making is not emotionally charged just objective.

[LinusP]

I think your best way forward in whatever you do is to learn to accept the losers, understand why you have losers...

Here's an example: I only look at my trading balance once a week, If you asked me what my profit was two races ago unless it was spectacular I wouldn't be able to tell you.

So how does this work?

By not looking at my balance I am completely eliminating small cycles of winners and losers, which is having no effect on my mental stability.

When you know youve had 4 losers on the trot, it can get to you.

Yes but what you said in the first paragraph is contaradicting the second. How do you learn to accept losers / understand them if you don’t even know / ignoring the fact that you have had them?

[mhorro]

Everyone thanks for your comments.

I automate my process on horse selections and then firing the trades into Betangel via automation.

I love this as it gives me time to spend on other things outside of racing.

I do not want to sit in front of a computer screen all day. I have spent so much time on clients sites in the past when in business doing this!

So basically I am looking for a automation process that is devoid from emotion as well.

PS: My wife puts all my horses in a Betfair multiple on her account every day so I am not totally away from it!!!!

Thanks,

Mark

[ruthlessimon]

Yes but what you said in the first paragraph is contaradicting the second. How do you learn to accept losers / understand them if you don’t even know / ignoring the fact that you have had them?

Solid +1

[mhorro]

I have access to Betfair in-play data so can I can check my horse selections for any given day against Betfair in-play data too see what was the minimum price in-running of my horse selection.


I use native SQL against a commercial database on my own computer that holds 10+ years of every horse race across the world.

This database is bespoke as I wrote it and the data marts I use to get my horse selections via SQL.

This data feed is updated every day!

[SeaHorseRacing]

So how does this work?

By not looking at my balance I am completely eliminating small cycles of winners and losers, which is having no effect on my mental stability.

When you know youve had 4 losers on the trot, it can get to you.

Yes but what you said in the first paragraph is contaradicting the second. How do you learn to accept losers / understand them if you don’t even know / ignoring the fact that you have had them?

Ah good point Linus
Reading it back is very contradicting.

For me the way I accept winners and losers is by eliminating any type of emotional effect they have on me, one by not concentrating on short term p &ls.

If your to not to aheard my advice, understanding short term profit and losses and likely winning and losing runs will stop an emotional attachment.

Its not easy to accept, but ignoring my p & l did wonders.