Laying a Horse at random

[ANGELS15]

Good suggestion

[elofan0]

i agree with what your saying sometimes by trying to avoid the winner you end up laying the winner because maybe the way the betting odds are set up you are diverted to making the selection that sticks out like a sore thumb .. ie lay price is too high so you dont lay that one because the risk is too high and you start to look for a horse to lay that wont be high risk and vala you have fallen into the bookies trap !!!! kinda like one way signs

[iambic_pentameter]

OP

If you are going to lay horses, I'd suggest you do a lot of homework on any horse you want to lay - Timeform is excellent for IR prices and you can cross reference each run with the Racing Post notes and watch some replays.

As anyone who frequents these forums knows, plenty of horses who go off at less than 2.0 and/or hit low prices in running go on to lose.

That being said, there are also a lot of horses that can go off at a short price and then trade very high in running and then come back to win - do bear this in mind.

But please, for the sake of your health and wealth, do not lay horses at high prices - it's the fast route to the poor house

Best of luck

Iambic

[iambic_pentameter]

To add to my original post:

Kupatana in the 2.50pm at Chepstow is 1.54/1.55 at time of writing.

Whilst it won the previous race, it had a BSP of 1.74 but traded at 8.4 before going on to win.

This, could then, be a good Lay to Back opportunity.

Considerations:

The market will know this information so we cannot assume if will trade that high in running
There are traders with faster pictures who will be trading from the track
The horse is trained by Nicky Henderson who, as we all know, is destined for great things - did well at Cheltenham and I will be keeping an eye out on his progress

Am I suggesting that this horse will definitely lose? No, I am certainly not but it might be worth considering as this is the 3rd trip out so although it won last time, it cannot be guaranteed that it will win this time.

Have a look at the market before hand and see where the price goes and if you do play, have a very strict exit point if the price goes against you.

Iambic

[wearthefoxhat]

How about this one.

Lud300.PNG

Kerry Lee has an RTF% of 23% (down from 25% yesterday)

The horses form and RPR was far superior but was worth taking on with a BSP @1.05! (The eventual winner had finished a hopeless 3rd to Buveur D'Air 3 runs ago)

No such thing as a certainty!

[cmuddle]

I played around with data. Took the whole year 2016, all horses with BSP between odds 10 and 25 won 1 - 3.5 % of the time.

Some meetings are very low, like 1.2 % .

If one can do the right analysis to know exactly which tracks, which runs, which horses to lay, then one can maybe do it well.

Nothing will work at random.

But one question I have to this tread.
If I lay horses at odds of 10 with £100 for a £10 profit and in this type of race it has 1.2 % of winning at these odds, will that be in profit over long term?
Just don't know how to calculate it right.

Many Thanks

[Derek27]

You would make a massive profit, but a horse trading at 10 will have a much better than 1.2% chance - in theory it should be 10%.

(Laying a horse at 10 for a liability of £100 makes a £11.11 profit).

[ShaunWhite]

If one can do the right analysis to know exactly which tracks, which runs, which horses to lay, then one can maybe do it well.

Be mindful of not just pattern fitting. Ask yourself, if it was X last year why should it be X next year. Then take your 2016 assertions and see if they were true in 2015, 2014, 2013 etc. Then expect it to disappear next year because everyone is looking at the same data and finding what you did.

[foxwood]

Then expect it to disappear next year because everyone is looking at the same data and finding what you did.

So true !

Markets are constantly changing and wiping out "edges" in timescales far, far shorter that a year.

However when one door closes another one "apparently" opens. I say "apparently" because by the time you try to exploit the new "edge" it also will have vanished. The people who got there first were responsible for the new "edge" you spotted !

If you think about it, it does explain how/why contrarian first movers win over the long term.

[wearthefoxhat]

Then expect it to disappear next year because everyone is looking at the same data and finding what you did.

So true !

Markets are constantly changing and wiping out "edges" in timescales far, far shorter that a year.

However when one door closes another one "apparently" opens. I say "apparently" because by the time you try to exploit the new "edge" it also will have vanished. The people who got there first were responsible for the new "edge" you spotted !

If you think about it, it does explain how/why contrarian first movers win over the long term.

I'm not wholly convinced that once you find an edge, even a short term one, that all and sundry spot it too and jump on it. Most traders/gamblers/bettors aren't that adaptable and need more convincing before moving away from their existing way of doing things.

Even if you posted up all the rules or made a you-tube video visually demonstrating the edge (not sure why anyone would), it might only help those that haven't found a niche yet. Even then, the majority would lose interest and do something else.

[utubecomment21]

Laying at random is pretty dangerous IME. That approach works until it doesn't, and when it bites, it'll take you down and some. You'd be surprised how often a 100+ horse comes in! I would say at least 75% of my trading is 'Laying - InPlay'. The reason I say 75% because I'm getting into pre-race trading, which is getting better and better.

However, for a semi automated approach I have two laying systems, but each only comes in a few times a month. One system I've back tested for a year+ and the other for 6 months. Both are consistent given the set up. So now my problem is 'Not trading' (video below) to wait for my set up. Of course I find this difficult and so I'm getting more into
pre-race, which is more like work for me.

Even the Bravest Stock Traders Need to Take Time to Relax! - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0Wtc9lcpQg

I've done many variations of laying, many patterns and its taken me a while to get to where I am. But laying at random; the last time I did it was in-play, I layed £2 @ 45 ... the horse won and it took me down for a loss. I tried to exit my position by hedging but by then it was too late. I've never done it since!

This week alone I've done over 50% of my bank in three days, I would say 20% of that 50% was one of my 'Laying' set ups coming in, the rest is pre-race trading. But its a matter of efficiency. For my set up it took me all of 5 seconds to put my order in. Pre-race trading takes most of my trading day and I've done 3 full 8-9 hour days to to get another 30%.

So lets be generous:

20% for - for 5 seconds work
30% - for 20 hours work

What would you do?