Horses : Laying The field At 1.34

[Derek27]

Tried this for a week but eliminating certain races some good days and bad days. Started with £2 then cranked it up to £10 and then £50. Will try and see what happens this week.

Thanks,

Mark

What's the point in cranking up your stakes?

Did you actually win anything?

Increasing stakes by 2500% is not a good idea until you've found a successful strategy.

[mhorro]

So basically it does not work!

[Derek27]

So basically it does not work!

That's right - you can see that from the stats. But if you do have any ideas you want to test use £2 stakes. There's really no need to use £50 and you can often work out if something has a chance of success by looking at the stats.

[ShaunWhite]

So basically it does not work!

On every race, no, on some races, yes.

Make life easy for yourself.
Get the data (link available onthis forum). Then you can find out what courses, field sizes, times of year, market shapes etc atc work best and go from there.

[spreadbetting]

Here's some stats on the courses to give you a starter, plenty of links to the data on the forum so should be easy enough for you to query by course, distance, runners per race etc

Code: Select all

Course,Races ,Runners,1.34 and under
Aint,576,6735,773
Ascot,1603,18029,2051
Ayr,1914,17177,2412
Ballin,640,7385,817
Bang,949,7731,1184
Bath,1421,12126,1813
Belle,362,4089,479
Bellew,16,204,22
Bev,1376,12959,1819
Brig,1438,11511,1847
Carl,1467,12987,1887
Cart,497,4227,651
Catt,1761,16555,2248
ChelmC,1338,11223,1597
Chelt,1084,13401,1397
Chep,1882,17929,2480
Chest,972,8474,1248
Clon,810,10004,1050
Cork,1236,15433,1573
Curr,1375,16209,1755
Donc,2305,23849,2997
DownP,658,7161,867
DownR,819,9376,1062
Dund,2559,29057,3130
Epsm,712,6091,931
Extr,971,8903,1276
Fairy,1394,16897,1829
Fake,654,4574,853
FfosL,1340,9995,1717
Folk,661,5262,852
Font,1465,11926,1912
Gal,850,10400,1092
GLghs,311,2976,381
Good,1383,13830,1776
GowP,1181,14484,1465
Ham,1200,9733,1550
Hayd,2034,18292,2636
Here,550,5527,726
Hex,907,7923,1164
Hunt,1080,9452,1344
Kelso,841,7535,1059
Kemp,6367,62048,8101
Kilb,551,6673,674
Killar,771,8531,1016
Layt,54,517,67
Laytown,6,55,11
Leic,1909,16525,2468
Leop,1616,17449,2079
Lim,1290,15158,1673
Ling,6439,55919,8040
List,666,7633,830
Ludl,961,8792,1244
MrktR,1349,11241,1774
Muss,1761,15058,2211
Naas,1080,12410,1378
Navan,1218,15250,1601
Newb,2062,20853,2656
Newc,2326,22142,2946
Newm,2750,27547,3458
Newt,1158,10102,1489
Nott,1451,14257,1834
Perth,952,7752,1211
Plump,1015,7976,1327
Ponte,1075,9968,1374
Punch,1212,15607,1560
Redc,1276,13631,1615
Ripon,1044,9625,1322
Rosc,632,7670,814
Salis,1083,10024,1357
Sand,1656,14822,2124
Sedge,1168,9733,1512
Sligo,518,5505,641
Sthl,4438,37805,5687
Strat,1123,10202,1464
Taun,885,8204,1132
Thirsk,1061,11150,1385
Thurl,741,9172,971
Tipp,834,9482,1036
Towc,968,8846,1266
Tral,35,496,45
Tram,746,8271,945
Uttox,1628,15272,2153
Warw,1266,11682,1636
Weth,1135,10112,1486
Wex,737,8764,926
Winc,1018,8845,1307
Wind,1713,16391,2098
Wolv,6934,63606,8784
Worc,1310,12135,1696
Yarm,1517,12927,1911
York,1106,13367,1453

[SeaHorseRacing]

A lot of sharp tracks as you would expect to see there trading low.

I never really looked into this but as a thought from the top of my head, I would recommend.

Stay away from races where there are very short priced favs. likely to be strong travellers and thus unlikely to drift out and only when they're beaten.

Different types of races... Novice or handicap?

Pace in the race... really strong paces will allow bigger prices from the back to get up late. Far more likely to get more to travel low if you can spot a fast pace. (Especially if well fancied runners are front runners) And the reverse. Well fancied horse that is held up running in slow paces.

[wearthefoxhat]

Also consider laying the first qualifier only. (1.34 may not be the magic figure)

In many instances, laying more than one is just giving away any profit.

[mhorro]

Just missed Kempton 18.45 21/03/2018

4 horses traded at 1.34

[SeaHorseRacing]

Just missed Kempton 18.45 21/03/2018

4 horses traded at 1.34

The question is. Did you see the type of race there that caused that... inexperienced horse more likely to cause trouble in running.

[spreadbetting]

There were 4 losing under 1.34 bets yesterday too, you'd be raking it in.

[Derek27]

Just missed Kempton 18.45 21/03/2018

4 horses traded at 1.34

You'd have made a good profit but it only takes 11 non-eventful markets to get back to where you started!

[ocze0107]

Here's some stats to help you from the stats Betfair make available. Out of 123,217 races there were a total of 1,194,965 runners, 157,525 of those hit 1.34 or under.

That would suggest at £2 stakes the 123,217 winners would lose £83,787.56.

The 34,308 matched that didn't win would have won back £68,616, netting a loss of £15,171.56.

That may not be accurate because is assumes all bets were matched but it doesn't look promising.

Interesting statistic, i play since few week this. I lay inplay the first Horse if it hit 1.6 I don't have stats like you guys but i see it makes profit. After 18 Days i played 320 Races, 108 Wins, 159 Loss, and 52 Horses not matched. Currently my profit is about 13%. Lets see what happen in few months, if anyone have statistics let me know. Thank you.

[Derek27]

Here's some stats to help you from the stats Betfair make available. Out of 123,217 races there were a total of 1,194,965 runners, 157,525 of those hit 1.34 or under.

That would suggest at £2 stakes the 123,217 winners would lose £83,787.56.

The 34,308 matched that didn't win would have won back £68,616, netting a loss of £15,171.56.

That may not be accurate because is assumes all bets were matched but it doesn't look promising.

Interesting statistic, i play since few week this. I lay inplay the first Horse if it hit 1.6 I don't have stats like you guys but i see it makes profit. After 18 Days i played 320 Races, 108 Wins, 159 Loss, and 52 Horses not matched. Currently my profit is about 13%. Lets see what happen in few months, if anyone have statistics let me know. Thank you.

Hi ocze0107, welcome to the forum.

The calculation I made above was for laying the entire market pre-race rather than laying the first horse to trade at a certain price, but it is interesting to hear, using your strategy, that you're in profit after 320 markets, which is a good sample.

I'm asking this question for the OP's benefit rather than mine. Are you selective or have any criteria for selecting which races you apply this strategy to?

[ShaunWhite]

Interesting statistic, i play since few week this. I lay inplay the first Horse if it hit 1.6 I don't have stats like you guys but i see it makes profit. After 18 Days i played 320 Races, 108 Wins, 159 Loss, and 52 Horses not matched. Currently my profit is about 13%. Lets see what happen in few months, if anyone have statistics let me know. Thank you.

Don't be surprised if things change when we go from NH to Flat racing.

[ocze0107]

@Derek27

Hi and thank you,

currently i have no criteria about my bets and played all markets in the last 18 Days. I played all bets flat, so there was no compounded staking or any other stakin plan. If this strategy works long term good i think about other staking methods. I compared last night a lot of system but for my reason first its important to have a good bank management. I study math long time so i know enough about calculation. Do betting since about 15 Years and make good profits, never trade. I make updates from time to time. Currently i must loss 22 Races to be break even.

@ShaunWhite

lets see what happen, if flat is a disaster i know what to change then.