Dutching with margin maker- a question

[Llosgi]

I'd appreciate some thoughts on this strategy that I use on some selected races.

I use the margin maker on the excellent dutching section of Betangel to back the entire book, usually seeking a profit of between 3% and 5%. To set this up I consider market movers, especially drifters/ steamers and try to pitch my price orders appropriately. This is obviously vital when it comes to the choice of the one horse I select as the margin maker. This may be the short priced favourite, but not always.

I get a good rate of success with this strategy, often with all bets matching even before the race starts. But not always and then I take them in play and more often than not ( as I do my homework) the prices match and the whole book gets covered.

But of course, the occasional time it doesn't. This is the reason for my post. This tends to happen when a rank outsider steams in from the start and the lay price plus 1 or 2 ticks I'd asked for never gets touched. (Or if I make the wrong call on the favourite and it goes unchallenged and doesn't go out 5% in running. Not common in fact).

Anyway, the best I have managed to do to address this is to use the same stake as originally planned but fire in a bet at lower odds. This reduces the potential loss on that one horse but keeps the potential profit on every other horse ( in case this steamer does in fact lose).

I have sometimes simply taken BSP on any unmatched bets as the race begins- but this is not the best solution as this strategy requires some in play movement to work well.


So I thought I'd ask the collective wisdom of the board. Is there anything else that can be done to save the occasional margin maker Dutch from an unpleasant loss?

[wearthefoxhat]

Thought I'd pitch in FWIW.

I subscribed to BA (pro version) because of the dutching programme and the facility to adjust profit for dutching and use the margin maker now and again. The Peter Webb you-tube vids explain things well.

When I've used the M.M, I've been willing to trade out IP if the tactics have changed from the jockey. (more prominent instead of Held Up). This is important as the M.M only really works best at single odds prices, much bigger than that, it has to reach 1000.00 for the book% to be realised. (in effect you would be just laying the outsider).

Definite potential in your approach.

I try to find 3 or 4 winners for a profit, 2 or 3 for insurance (0 profit), 2 or 3 with an acceptable loss or find one for the M.M if I can. I may use the M.M if there are good reasons to oppose a selection and is likely to be held up.

[Derek27]

When I used to lay or back the entire field, I always matched my unmatched bets before the off at whatever price was available, for a green book, or if necessary, a red book.

Unless you are knowledgeable about horse racing and have an opinion of your position, leaving a liability on one horse for a profit on the rest of the field will probably balance itself out in the long run, as the equivalent of greening or redding up every time.

[Llosgi]

Thanks for replies chaps. Very helpful. To be clear, this strategy works very well for me as I am careful in my price selection, using methodology similar to what you describe, on selected races, doing my research. But occasionally it goes pear shaped as outlined in my post.
In your experience is there more capacity to 'rescue' a trade if you've done a bookmaking Dutch rather than a backing Dutch? Am I right in thinking more lays can be fired in across the 'losing' field to reduce liability on the one horse that drifted out and never matched the original order. (Unlike with the backed Dutch where it's extremely hard to rescue it below 2.)
I'm going to experiment in trial mode and test this hypothesis.

[wearthefoxhat]

Thanks for replies chaps. Very helpful. To be clear, this strategy works very well for me as I am careful in my price selection, using methodology similar to what you describe, on selected races, doing my research. But occasionally it goes pear shaped as outlined in my post.
In your experience is there more capacity to 'rescue' a trade if you've done a bookmaking Dutch rather than a backing Dutch? Am I right in thinking more lays can be fired in across the 'losing' field to reduce liability on the one horse that drifted out and never matched the original order. (Unlike with the backed Dutch where it's extremely hard to rescue it below 2.)

I'm going to experiment in trial mode and test this hypothesis.

I would say that's the way forward.

Maybe use the IP Trader tool (finishing post icon left of the tennis ball ) with the 20ms speed setting. That way you have the best information available IP with the odds on display and can react accordingly.

IPTrader.PNG

With these settings you can left click the mouse to the right of the horses yellow dot. (click to the left for better odds)

As you say, take a go in practice mode to see if it suits you or not.

I also use the radio commentary, with delay, as a confirmation of what has happened with the IP Trader. I find if I use the live pictures, my interpretation is slower. Probably due to listening to extel commentaries years ago.