Can a logical approach be applied to an illogical market?

The sport of kings.
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Derek27
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Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:58 am
...my youngest son is planning university in September and he'll be taking a degree in CSc with a year's paid work in the 4th year. I'll try and steer him in the trading direction, who knows where it may lead.... 8-)
Gambling addition and destitution?

If he has any sense he'll do what appeals and is best suited to him.
Wolf1877
Posts: 367
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:59 am

25 years IBM mainframe analyst/programmer from age 18
8 years linux/apache/mysql/php
3 years MS SQL Server/Visual Studio/Integration Services with a little bit of C#

7 months into trading mainly spent building lots of data extraction/collation tools alongside manual trading.
I now have tons of data but I have definitely suffered from too much from paralysis by over analysis.
After all that number crunching I do at least now have a very clear idea of where I can build a profitable automation strategy.
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wearthefoxhat
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Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Derek27 wrote:
Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:12 am
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:58 am
...my youngest son is planning university in September and he'll be taking a degree in CSc with a year's paid work in the 4th year. I'll try and steer him in the trading direction, who knows where it may lead.... 8-)
Gambling addition and destitution?

If he has any sense he'll do what appeals and is best suited to him.
Quite right.

He's more interested in gaming development, coding...etc. (although he knock a spready together for me to help with the automation side of things) :)
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Euler
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Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

This is actually an interesting thread and a sort of coders anonymous.

I see that you can model an activity then profit from it by: -

Finding errors in the model versus the market.
Anticipating something that is going to happen.
Benefiting from the underlying market activity.
Exploiting a technical or information advantage.

I may think of others, but that's what popped into my head. I've often found the market to be completely illogical As Buffett said but is misquoted here, short term the market is a voting machine, long-term a weighing machine. I think that applies in sports also.
mhorro
Posts: 112
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

Thanks for all the comments it is much appreciated.

I think Bet Angel is a great product and I have been using it since 2007 and it has certainly evolved in the right direction.

What would be great is some sort of API's that allow for further extraction of data from the markets in standard format to be used for easy load into a database for modelling ( not excel ). I feel that there is a layer missing here as signals are ok i.e. provide some direction but prices/time would be great. The data is not easily aggregated and modelled. Plus it would be great to play back markets ( without video ) so you could replay and fast forward events historically using the Bet Angel product.

With respect to the computing industry in the UK I have steered my 2 children away from this. In the 1980's after graduating with a computer science degree my first job I earned £14K per year! Now Graduates are being paid £20K for the first job in the 2018!
So After 30+ years this cannot be right. I feel so sorry for graduates nowadays as I see the troubles my two children are having. Students loans etc.

I think this is happening in every industry, people working for less and more hours!

Thank god I retired at 50 years old.
LinusP
Posts: 1873
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

mhorro wrote:
Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:57 am
Thanks for all the comments it is much appreciated.

I think Bet Angel is a great product and I have been using it since 2007 and it has certainly evolved in the right direction.

What would be great is some sort of API's that allow for further extraction of data from the markets in standard format to be used for easy load into a database for modelling ( not excel ). I feel that there is a layer missing here as signals are ok i.e. provide some direction but prices/time would be great. The data is not easily aggregated and modelled. Plus it would be great to play back markets ( without video ) so you could replay and fast forward events historically using the Bet Angel product.

With respect to the computing industry in the UK I have steered my 2 children away from this. In the 1980's after graduating with a computer science degree my first job I earned £14K per year! Now Graduates are being paid £20K for the first job in the 2018!
So After 30+ years this cannot be right. I feel so sorry for graduates nowadays as I see the troubles my two children are having. Students loans etc.

I think this is happening in every industry, people working for less and more hours!

Thank god I retired at 50 years old.
https://developer.betfair.com/exchange-api/
mhorro
Posts: 112
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

I posted this thread a while ago and have manged to perform further analysis of the UK horse racing markets capturing stored values like Volume traded, WOM etc and in my opinion the markets are totally random. You can have 300K traded on a favourite and it means nothing!

Checking prices on the top 3 favs in a horse race at various time intervals pre-off is not really beneficial as large order spikes distort the markets.

I am now 100% convinced the market is completely illogical.

Some good news I now know the beast I am dealing with and I am now happier as my strategy has changed!

Thanks,

Mark
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