Hi all,
I've been digging through some data and I think I may have cocked something up but I'm looking to see if it's my data, or if this is actually the case.
My data is telling me that the overwhelming majority of races in UK/IE go off late. I make that 90% of races go off at least 4.5 minutes late and 50% go off over 7 minutes late, with 10% being over 11.5 minutes late. My data doesn't contain a single race that started early.
I'm a little new to this so I'm looking to do a sanity check my data and I'm asking you lot.
So tell me: Does this make sense?
Races on time
Ok thanks I found my mistake.
I'll share my stats again for people who are curious so that this post isn't a total waste of time for everyone:
90% of races are at least 20 seconds late minimum.
50% of races are at least 75 seconds late.
10% of races are 3.5 minutes late or more.
I only have 1 race in my sample (approx. 1000 races) going off early.
I'll share my stats again for people who are curious so that this post isn't a total waste of time for everyone:
90% of races are at least 20 seconds late minimum.
50% of races are at least 75 seconds late.
10% of races are 3.5 minutes late or more.
I only have 1 race in my sample (approx. 1000 races) going off early.
no
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spreadbetting
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Betfair would only void if the race was declared void by the racecourse stewards. I'm sure there used to be a rule to void races that set off earlier than the official off time but pretty sure that rule was cancelled a while back, it was basically a throw over from ye olde days before people had phones/internet etc so bookies didn't get stung by some scam or other. These days everyone can see when a race sets off so no need to void early races. Never seems to happen in the UK but you do see a few Irish races going off early.
Here's the BHA's stats for late off times, I'm sure anyone doing this day out will be well aware of courses like Newmarket who continually run late. If you're getting 10% over 3.5 it seems things have started to go backwards as they went from 10% in 2008 to 6% in 2013
https://www.britishhorseracing.com/wp-c ... ummary.pdf
Here's the BHA's stats for late off times, I'm sure anyone doing this day out will be well aware of courses like Newmarket who continually run late. If you're getting 10% over 3.5 it seems things have started to go backwards as they went from 10% in 2008 to 6% in 2013
https://www.britishhorseracing.com/wp-c ... ummary.pdf
US racing can go off early or very late - there's no off course betting for most tracks.
Not only do French races go off late but they seem to make no effort whatsoever to catch-up with the schedule.
The Australians are probably the best time keepers in the world with most races no more than 1-2 minutes late.
Not only do French races go off late but they seem to make no effort whatsoever to catch-up with the schedule.
The Australians are probably the best time keepers in the world with most races no more than 1-2 minutes late.
I'd guess I have a bad sample but I make 16% of races going off later than 3 mins in the UK. The irish actually do better in this data. I'm also basing my off times by when betfair turns in-play but as I understand it those are not usually far wrong.spreadbetting wrote: ↑Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:00 pm
Here's the BHA's stats for late off times, I'm sure anyone doing this day out will be well aware of courses like Newmarket who continually run late. If you're getting 10% over 3.5 it seems things have started to go backwards as they went from 10% in 2008 to 6% in 2013
https://www.britishhorseracing.com/wp-c ... ummary.pdf
EDIT:
There's a lot of auto-correlation between the data, so if one race on a card is late - the chances another is late is far higher. It only take 1 or 2 very bad meetings to really mess up the statistics, and that doesn't seem like it's particularly unlikely given my sample size.
As someone who trades/snipes in-play, we now have the start of the flat racing season, which means starting stalls. For me, it is the most frustrating aspect of racing - full stop. I mean take last Sunday 22nd April; the race was the 17:20 at Navan with THREE runners - three! The race was exactly three minutes late in taking off. Okay, if you have a field of 12, 15, 25, okay three or four minutes late in taking off. But three bloody runners and three minutes late in starting? I ask you!