Am I on the right track?

[cookyweb]

Hi All,

I’ve been trading 4 months and followed the exact same erratic patterns as all new traders, you’ve heard it all a million times times I’m sure.

I’ve been reading through this forum and started reading trading in the zone today

Up until tonight I just seemed to lose 80% of my trades and generally make a mess and I’d get involved in pretty much every single race

Tonight In training mode I looked at it differently, if I couldn’t see something that I felt had a good chance of happening I didn’t get involved, out of I think 9 races I only traded 2 and profited comfortably in both, £8 and £7 profit with £50 fake stakes

In the ones I didn’t trade I just watched and was relaxed

In the ones I did trade and profited in I opened the race at 10 minutes out, I immediately saw one particular graph looking a certain way, every time I’ve seen that type of chart a certain thing has happened, so I waited and watched and the money started to build and the price went a couple of ticks where I expected so I entered and sure enough they both went where I thought and I exited.

Does that sound like the right way to start, study the charts and the ladder, look for patterns or similar occurrences, watch to see if it materialises as expected and then get involved ?

Then, over time hopefully spot more of these occurrences and get more experience of situations and build on this one situation that I feel I already have in my locker

I’ve been really down about trading for the last couple of weeks but just feel like I have some direction now

Any advice as ever is much appreciated

Cookyweb

[FrogThimble]

I'm very new too... but I think avoiding the urge to get involved in every single race is a big psychological step forwards and it's one that it took me too long to see sense on.

[Trader Pat]

1. If you're not able to watch the market and be relaxed while having an open position then chances are you're overstaking. You need to have stakes at a size where you're not panicking if the market goes a few ticks againt you so if this sounds like you then reduce stakes until you can literally sit back with your arms folded and not feel the need to dive on the keyboard.

2. This is something I wish I could go back in time and tell myself when I started out, at the beginning DON'T SET PROFIT TARGETS! Its very easy to get pulled into chasing daily targets. If you have a day where you make £20,40 or even £100 dont expect to make it the next day. I fell into this trap early on and thought because I'd make X amount one day then I should be able to do it everyday, the problem with this way of thinking is when you are halfway through your session and you're nowhere near your 'target' then you start making silly decisions and increasing risk which in my case led to going in play and blowing quite a few banks in the process. It got to the point with me where I had to take a complete break from trading for almost a year and when I came back I promised myself that I wouldnt set any targets, this simple rule stopped me going in play overnight and as a result I also stopped blowing banks.

These are just 2 of many many pieces of advice that could be given but they are the two I would tell my previous self if I could.

To answer your question youre on a well worn track as most traders can relate to what youre experiencing so youre on the right track in as much as you're making the same mistakes most of us have. Trading isnt about the profits its about the process, get the process right and the profits come naturally.

Good luck on your journey!

[to75ne]

Tonight In training mode I looked at it differently, if I couldn’t see something that I felt had a good chance of happening I didn’t get involved, out of I think 9 races I only traded 2 and profited comfortably in both, £8 and £7 profit with £50 fake stakes

In the ones I didn’t trade I just watched and was relaxed

Cookyweb

practice mode is not a very good yard stick for your performance or a good measure of your results, its not real. Its good for testing functionality of automation, excel sheets, learning to use various features and so on, but its not a good measure of your performance as it is in essence a best guess of what could of have happend, not what did happen.

you say the ones you did not trade (i assume trade in practice mode) you was relaxed and just watched, would you have been relaxed if you had traded the others in a live market and the outcome was negative?

Up until tonight I just seemed to lose 80% of my trades and generally make a mess and I’d get involved in pretty much every single race

I’ve been really down about trading for the last couple of weeks but just feel like I have some direction now


Cookyweb

take some time out away from trading give your mind a rest from it. You cant afford to let trading bring you down, you will just get into a downward negative spiral with each bad result/error/ minor loss/ small gain/ small loss feeding/adding to to your depressed negative mood. If you cant take the losses then you are wasting your time, a very large aspect of trading is taking and dealing with losses.

hopefully your just a bit jaded take a break for a while forget about trading, do something else for a while, let your mind refresh.

[ShaunWhite]

Like others have said, if you don't feel like you're in the groove have a break. Bad habits are as easy to ingrain as good ones.

A break doesn't necessarily mean not working, just a break from clicking ladders. Something about the work ethic makes people think you only make money when you're clicking, but that's just withdrawing the money you put in the bank when you do everything else.

Go read a book, setup a results spreadsheet, think about a market scoring system so you can stake according to risk, watch some vids again, sort out your bookmarks, restock the atm.

4 months is no time at all really so also try and be sensible about expectations and don't beat yourself up, I was happy to just lose slightly less each month rather than be making regular money at that stage.

[eightbo]

4 months is no time at all really so also try and be sensible about expectations and don't beat yourself up, I was happy to just lose slightly less each month rather than be making regular money at that stage.

This. I'm sure you have read and/or experienced first-hand that by default, humans are not good at trading. We succumb to our emotions and generally have to change our current behavioural patterns when it comes to decision-making to start making some progress. If you can come to appreciate that, then when you think about how much impact even 1 year of trading experience will have on the average person's behavioural patterns, you can start to see how it will take way longer to make the necessary changes. Sure this varies depending on the life you've had etc. and you may be able to pick it up fast, but the inverse for this is also true -- perhaps you've had gambling or trading experience in the past and have formed beliefs that will further harm your trading ability.

Are you on the right track?
Your being patience is good don't get me wrong, but perhaps your idea of what the fastest way to become a trader is could be adjusted.

If nabbing just two profits in a row leads you to believe you are on the right track, I would instantly take a step back for 2 reasons:

• 1. It is important to remember that any trades you open only have the potential to make money -- if you took those same exact trades and they became losers would you still have thought you were on the right track?

• 2. Two trades just isn't even close to being enough data to work with - it's extremely possible (25% chance) that you just got lucky in these instances, which may mean you could be positively affirming some idea you have about the market that is wrong

Instead of trying to go from:
Rookie   Pro (significantly losing -> winning) -- the trader is focusing on how to win

Go for the more... mundane route:
Rookie   Beginner   Average  (significant loser -> slight loser -> break even) -- the trader is focusing on how to not lose

If you can reach break-even over a longer period you will have done the lions share of the work, be miles ahead of most market participants, and probably have some idea about how to become profitable.

To do this it's a process of eliminating mistakes. You should actually welcome the fact that you are losing 80% of trades in the beginning! Sounds counter-intuitive but if you think about it that would be much better than getting lucky and only losing 50% of trades because it means you can learn what not to do, which is just as valuable as learning what you should be doing (if not more).

To wrap it up... embrace being a loser!


Your goal in the beginning should just be to lessen the extent to which you're losing over time, rather than trying to become a winning trader.

I would advise trading actively and record as much data as you can along the way. Seek to observe patterns in your losers and don't take similar trades in the future. Continue to do this over and over. Given that commission is 5%, I'd actually put being break-even in the winners camp anyway. It may help you psychologically to view being break-even in this way as you may not find much motivation having a goal to 'not lose money' and I suspect you'll be more prone to deviating from your trading plan etc. at times along the way

Peter has a great video on this called "Winning the loser's game"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RScvKMK-fy4

[ShaunWhite]

eightbo's nailed it.

ruthlesssimon posted the sketch below quite a while ago, and he didn't get anyone saying it was completely wrong. It's obviously slightly different for everyone, but probably not a million miles off. (I never liked the menace that came with where the X crosses the Y but I let it go )

Si's named another zone since that isn't on there which a lot of people go through, the 'breakeven grind of death', I think it's somewhere in the zigzag valleys of doom. This trading lark is all fun fun fun, fasten your seatbelt.

Screenshot at Jun 26 16-18-05.png

[mcgoo]

Must be about 17 months of trading manually for me..grind, grind, grind of death indeed Either way, loving it-well 75% of the time anyway .
Playing the loser's game was definitely a turning point video for me
Bought the ol 4TB drive today..videos taking up space All the best pal.Stick at it

[coldtrader47]

Love this stuff you all take the time post , been fannying around for nearly a year now but all your advice is setting correct expectations for me - thanks

[Korattt]

I think 3 years is bang on, but you do need to work at it & then some,

over the past few weeks I've come round to the idea that trading is very much like fishing, reminiscing now but years ago I used frequent a local carp lake, the carp in the lake used to like taking dog biscuits "off the top", used to sit there for hours.. watching & waiting, then if you sat there for long enough one would get impatient & take the bait, I'd wait a couple of seconds & watch for the fish to disappear then I'd strike, after a bit of thrashing about it'd get tired & I'd pull it out, if nothing took the bait then it didn't cost me anything, only my time & the cost of the bait.

[cookyweb]

Hi All,

I’m working away today so will read properly and digest it all tonight but just wanted to say a massive thank you for the replies!

The good thing about this forum is people don’t seem to get one line replies, everyone goes out of their way and takes time to write great replies and reasoning behind them.

Thanks again the advice is greatly appreciated

Cookyweb

[wearthefoxhat]

Everyone else's post explain things very well. I certainly picked up some points to take on board.

FWIW, I recognised early on I needed some firm guidance on trading generally. Peter Webb's you-tube videos (and some others), helped me initially cut through and clarify, but felt I needed an extra push, so I attended Peter Webbs Masterclass recently, and for me, that has done the trick. (famous last words)

Key areas of improvement;

Discipline
Selectivity
Psychology
Entry/Exit points
Managing the trade
Forming/creating my trading plan(s) on any sport.
328 page "bible" and excellent handouts.
Enjoying the process!!

In 4 weeks or so, have made back the cost of the course and some. This has been mainly achieved by cutting out bad trading habits and fine tuning main areas of profitability. Also plenty of scaleability potential on the trades so can attack the higher liquidity markets when ready.

Peter is running a competition where you could win a 1to1 trading session with him...that would be an amazing opportunity. I would go one step further and find out how much Peter would charge independently for a similar trading session.

[brimson25]

Everyone else's post explain things very well. I certainly picked up some points to take on board.

FWIW, I recognised early on I needed some firm guidance on trading generally. Peter Webb's you-tube videos (and some others), helped me initially cut through and clarify, but felt I needed an extra push, so I attended Peter Webbs Masterclass recently, and for me, that has done the trick. (famous last words)

Key areas of improvement;

Discipline
Selectivity
Psychology
Entry/Exit points
Managing the trade
Forming/creating my trading plan(s) on any sport.
328 page "bible" and excellent handouts.
Enjoying the process!!

In 4 weeks or so, have made back the cost of the course and some. This has been mainly achieved by cutting out bad trading habits and fine tuning main areas of profitability. Also plenty of scaleability potential on the trades so can attack the higher liquidity markets when ready.

Peter is running a competition where you could win a 1to1 trading session with him...that would be an amazing opportunity. I would go one step further and find out how much Peter would charge independently for a similar trading session.

What do you mainly trade now?

[Korattt]

get into good habits with small micro stakes to start off with, not bad habits with large stakes

[wearthefoxhat]

Everyone else's post explain things very well. I certainly picked up some points to take on board.

FWIW, I recognised early on I needed some firm guidance on trading generally. Peter Webb's you-tube videos (and some others), helped me initially cut through and clarify, but felt I needed an extra push, so I attended Peter Webbs Masterclass recently, and for me, that has done the trick. (famous last words)

Key areas of improvement;

Discipline
Selectivity
Psychology
Entry/Exit points
Managing the trade
Forming/creating my trading plan(s) on any sport.
328 page "bible" and excellent handouts.
Enjoying the process!!

In 4 weeks or so, have made back the cost of the course and some. This has been mainly achieved by cutting out bad trading habits and fine tuning main areas of profitability. Also plenty of scaleability potential on the trades so can attack the higher liquidity markets when ready.

Peter is running a competition where you could win a 1to1 trading session with him...that would be an amazing opportunity. I would go one step further and find out how much Peter would charge independently for a similar trading session.

What do you mainly trade now?

Football - Dutching Correct scores (certain games) Have posted up some stuff on it already.

In-Play horse racing (personal preference) using BA's info to help entry point and automation to exit.

Pre-trading on races that have less volatility using PW's info to maximise and set acceptable loss. Key is close out before off time and not let position go In-Play as I have a seperate setup for IP.

When Wimbledon starts will tread carefully, but can see some potential, especially in the womens game(s).

Automation will be important as there is so much choice and opportunity and little time...