Drifter/Steamer statistics

[ruthlessimon]

BB is 41% bigger than WAP in my mind

I must say I've never done it like that before

Be interesting if Peter agrees with that method

[northbound]

Backing a drifter doesn't make much sense to me as a price can drift for many reasons. But laying a steamer does.

It makes sense doesn't it, except on my pre-off data - laying a drifting fav sucks massively (exit @ 0mins).

Si, Euler mentioned laying a STEAMER, not a drifter.

In any case, my data shows that laying a drifting fav works reasonably well in certain conditions. Not going to elaborate here, for obvious reasons, but happy to discuss in private.

[ruthlessimon]

Si, Euler mentioned laying a STEAMER, not a drifter.

In any case, my data shows that laying a drifting fav works reasonably well in certain conditions. Not going to elaborate here, for obvious reasons, but happy to discuss in private.

I know but this - "Backing a drifter doesn't make much sense" - can also be read in a pre-off sense; & I'm in the process of trying to work out whether it stacks up in my own data

[gstar1975]

BB is 41% bigger than WAP in my mind

I must say I've never done it like that before

Be interesting if Peter agrees with that method

Can anyone clear up this method of working out the % drift/steam. I have always taken of a 1 from each value then divided. Everyone seems to have a different way of calculating.

If you take the Betfair price at say 11am is 6.4 and it drifted to 8.4 so 7.4/5.4= 1.37 so the move is 37% or is it 8.4/6.4=1.31 which is saying a 31% move???

But when you take off 37% from 8.4 so 7.4 * ((100-37=63) so use 0.63)). 7.4*0.63 = 4.66 +1 = 5.66

Its very confusing can Euler please clear this up once and for all? And I'm not talking about % move in Implied odds either, I want a % move from the actual Price not imlplied odds.

Very much appreciated.

[MemphisFlash]

the way i would look at this would be from your example:-
the difference between you start figure of 6.4 and the drift to 8.4 = 2.
2/8.4 = .23809 so to me the drift is 23.81% and not the figure you have of 37%

[LinusP]

the way i would look at this would be from your example:-
the difference between you start figure of 6.4 and the drift to 8.4 = 2.
2/8.4 = .23809 so to me the drift is 23.81% and not the figure you have of 37%

That’s a very odd way of calculating this, basically makes it impossible to compare as you go up/down the odds. If it was 50 -> 100 you would get a 200% drift and 1.5 -> 2.0 is 25%...

6.4 - 8.2 is a percentage point difference (chance) of 3.4%, I strongly recommend using percentage point differences.