I know there was an official Betfair report from 2008 or so which implied you would have been far better off backing horses where BSP was significantly higher than average matched price on a runner.
However my personal impression without having much data to back it up is opposite, does anyone know if this is still generally the case and what would be the easiest way to analyse statistics like that? Like for example how often did BSP 10 win, if odds drifted more than 20% etc.
Thank you
Drifter/Steamer statistics
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
I queried this with another user a while back, because it makes sense that it should be an edge (if auction market theory is valid).
If I understand it correctly, this is what BF suggest is a value back (screenie taken at exact offtime):
My source said it wasn't an edge (but maybe he would ), & also I'm not quite sure how he set up the test.
Unfortunately, I don't collect inplay myself - maybe I should
If I understand it correctly, this is what BF suggest is a value back (screenie taken at exact offtime):
My source said it wasn't an edge (but maybe he would ), & also I'm not quite sure how he set up the test.
Unfortunately, I don't collect inplay myself - maybe I should
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
If the technical definition of "fair value" is 2.46 - 2.5; then considering (relatively) little to no volume traded @ 3.0 makes it a completely "unfair" lay price.
Although markets are extremely complex beasts; people forget that!
Although markets are extremely complex beasts; people forget that!
- northbound
- Posts: 737
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm
I went through my pre-race snapshots (Oct2017-Apr2018) and simulated bets on all horses with the following criteria:
- Bet at scheduled race start time (if the race started 5min later, my data doesn't know)
- BestBack price 10-15% bigger than WeightedAverage price
- BestBack price between 2.20 - 4.00
- Bet £1 on the horse to win the race
- Subtract 5% commission on winnings
Here are the total profit/loss figures:
UK Races P/L (Total): -£0.08
IRE Races P/L (Total): £5.54
Here are the total profit/loss figures for the better performing race types:
UK Races P/L (Flat Handicaps): £4.25
UK Races P/L (Jumps Handicaps): £4.63
IRE Races P/L (NHF): £4.77
- Bet at scheduled race start time (if the race started 5min later, my data doesn't know)
- BestBack price 10-15% bigger than WeightedAverage price
- BestBack price between 2.20 - 4.00
- Bet £1 on the horse to win the race
- Subtract 5% commission on winnings
Here are the total profit/loss figures:
UK Races P/L (Total): -£0.08
IRE Races P/L (Total): £5.54
Here are the total profit/loss figures for the better performing race types:
UK Races P/L (Flat Handicaps): £4.25
UK Races P/L (Jumps Handicaps): £4.63
IRE Races P/L (NHF): £4.77
Last edited by northbound on Mon May 07, 2018 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- northbound
- Posts: 737
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm
Here are the results for what the original poster suggested:
- Bet at scheduled race start time (if the race started 5min later, my data doesn't know)
- BestBack price 20%+ bigger than WeightedAverage price
- BestBack price between 6.00 - 20.00
- Bet £1 on the horse to win the race
- Subtract 5% commission on winnings
The profit/loss figures for these higher priced selections are really lousy:
UK Races P/L (Total): -£140.74
IRE Races P/L (Total): -£115.50
- Bet at scheduled race start time (if the race started 5min later, my data doesn't know)
- BestBack price 20%+ bigger than WeightedAverage price
- BestBack price between 6.00 - 20.00
- Bet £1 on the horse to win the race
- Subtract 5% commission on winnings
The profit/loss figures for these higher priced selections are really lousy:
UK Races P/L (Total): -£140.74
IRE Races P/L (Total): -£115.50
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
Was the sample size of trades for both strategies meaningful?northbound wrote: ↑Mon May 07, 2018 1:59 pmThe profit/loss figures for these higher priced selections are really lousy
- northbound
- Posts: 737
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm
All UK / IRE races from Oct 2017 until Apr 2018.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Mon May 07, 2018 2:17 pmWas the sample size of trades for both strategies meaningful?
I don't have snapshots prior to that.
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
It's just that on my data a 20% drift is extremely rare; let alone from the WAP, which would have formed very late!northbound wrote: ↑Mon May 07, 2018 2:18 pmAll UK / IRE races from Oct 2017 until Apr 2018.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Mon May 07, 2018 2:17 pmWas the sample size of trades for both strategies meaningful?
I don't have snapshots prior to that.
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
It makes sense doesn't it, except on my pre-off data - laying a drifting fav sucks massively (exit @ 0mins).
April:
May (so far):
Interesting that the start of both months saw a blind lay strategy doing well(ish). & then both pretty much down the same amount as the previous
- northbound
- Posts: 737
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm
20% drift on a 6.00 - 20.00 horse doesn't look so uncommon in my data.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Mon May 07, 2018 2:26 pmIt's just that on my data a 20% drift is extremely rare; let alone from the WAP, which would have formed very late!northbound wrote: ↑Mon May 07, 2018 2:18 pmAll UK / IRE races from Oct 2017 until Apr 2018.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Mon May 07, 2018 2:17 pmWas the sample size of trades for both strategies meaningful?
I don't have snapshots prior to that.
I'm talking about snapshots taken at scheduled start, so perhaps the data at the actual off is a bit tighter as more money arrived in the next few minutes of a late race, thus reducing the gap between WAP and BB.
Here are a few random horses from my sample:
2018-03-20 Newcastle Velvet Vision WAP 5.39 / BB 7.60 41%
2017-12-27 Wolverhampton Jumping Around WAP 15.22 / BB 18.50 21%
2017-10-20 Redcar Essential WAP 13.11 / BB 16.5 25%
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
I'd calculate that as a 5% drift, not 40%!northbound wrote: ↑Mon May 07, 2018 2:37 pm2018-03-20 Newcastle Velvet Vision WAP 5.39 / BB 7.60 41%
- northbound
- Posts: 737
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm
BB 7.60 / WAP 5.39 = 1.41ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Mon May 07, 2018 2:39 pmI'd calculate that as a 5% drift, not 40%!northbound wrote: ↑Mon May 07, 2018 2:37 pm2018-03-20 Newcastle Velvet Vision WAP 5.39 / BB 7.60 41%
BB is 41% bigger than WAP in my mind