Ноrsе rасіng: bеttіng оn mоnеу bасk іf уоur hоrsе fіnіshеs 2nd оffеr.

The sport of kings.
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angels
Posts: 16
Joined: Tue May 08, 2018 2:16 pm

mу lосаl bооkіе wаs dоіng аn оffеr fоr nеwmаrkеt sаt/sundау whеrе уоu саn bасk а hоrsе аnd іf fіnіshеs sесоnd, уоu stіll gеt уоur stаkе bасk - whаt kіnd оf rасеs wоuld уоu rесоmmеnd dоіng wіth thіs оffеr, іf іt еvеr арреаrs аgаіn? І wаs thіnkіng іn rасеs wіth 8 оr lеss hоrsеs fоr аn іnсrеаsеd сhаnсе оf hіm соmіng 2nd - аnуthіng еlsе уоu'd аdd?
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jimibt
Posts: 3641
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

i'd say that it's such a once in a blue moon happening with an even smaller liklihood of the bookies balancing it to favour a smallr field as to honestly not give it a second thought... of course, if you're certain that the runner will romp home in 1st place, then you're quids in -as for playing so as to get your stake back, can't see the profitability there, unless you were laying on BF also.
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Niko
Posts: 282
Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2016 9:36 am

People making money on these offers every day over on the matched betting forums. Several versions of the offer. Back and lay a horse for a few pence loss (usually) and free bet if your horse meets whatever criteria the offer stipulates. Corals Beaten by a Length built my MB bank!!
angels
Posts: 16
Joined: Tue May 08, 2018 2:16 pm

Wоuld уоu rесоmmеnd оnlу bасkіng shоrt рrісеd hоrsеs thеn? Ѕіnсе lоng рrісеd hоrsеs аrе unlіkеlу tо соmе 2nd tо gеt thе frее bеt аnуwау
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Firstly check that stake back isn’t paid as a free bet. Usually this offer will apply to the most competitive meetings on offer. Thus making it more difficult.

Your aim should be to look for horses that you think will win, once achieved become price sensitive. By all means back an even money shot but only if you think it should be priced 1/2.

These offers are just ways to get punters through the door.

Personally if your just playing for fun. Stay away from odds on favs. Usually they don’t win because of things excluding form. From experience very short priced horses usually win or get stuffed.

Smaller fields are easier to pick winners simply because of less runners however, it is far easier to find value in very small fields. If you have a horse who is 6/4 fav in a four runner race and would be 6/4 in a 10 runner race you can already quickly sense it’s priced wrong or a weak fav.

Anything evens or bigger in very small fields is actually a weak price imo.

Something priced evens in 15 runner race would probably be 1/4 in a four runner race.

If your betting for fun. Personally... I would look at 6/7 runners and will be looking to appose any fav that’s priced 6/4. But remember at the same time 6/4 could be huge value in a 4 runner race.

Just try to find value, however only a horse you think can win. Easy to spot a 22/1 that should be 10/1 but you want to pick winners. Try find a winner than decide if it’s value. If not skip.
angels
Posts: 16
Joined: Tue May 08, 2018 2:16 pm

@SeaHorseRacing

mу mіstаkе, іt wаs асtuаllу а frее bеt оf thе sаmе vаluе nоt mоnеу bасk

whаt І'm сurrеntlу dоіng tо sее іf а hоrsе іs vаluе іn а rасе іs соmраrіng thе рrісе tо bеtfаіr ехсhаngе аnd іf thе hоrsе іs bеttеr price wіth mу bооkіе І bасk hіm -іs thіs а gооd mеthоd tо tеll іf а hоrsе іs vаluе?
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Your struggle to find a better price imo. They are out there.

Best way to find value to keep it simple this time of year. Up until about mid June. Think about apposing any favourite who has ran on soft/heavy ground last time out. Particularly if they ran well. If their a two year old makes it even stronger. Horses who have been off for winter and have run back on soft ground takes a lot out of them.

To find an outsider look for horses who were over the top last season. If you can find a horse that has had about 20 runs last season and they still mananged to produce good form in their recent runs at the end of last season they are very good first time out bets. Usually priced bigger than they should be.

Avoid horses who have shown Poor turf form and have run well this season on a AW track. They quite often fail to show. Usually this type of form is with poor unknown trainers. Think horse is good enough to win on turf and have improved but they usually don’t.

Don’t be afraid to bet a horse who has good form last season and has ran a stinker first time out this season. A lot of horses need a run, a good indication of a horse needing a run is their previous price drifting or usually they run over a short than optimum distance.

First time out headgears are real negatives this time of year. July onwards are when headgear is the time to take notice. It is early season and any first time out headgear is a sign that young horse hasn’t improved or filled out. Not exact science but good trainers want to get a run into their horse. Headgear would give you a higher handicap rating winning this time of year. So any fav who has shown strong form last season who now has headgear for first time you want to investigate. Check videos out need a strong case to put them on.


Don’t back 2 year old newcomers at Pontefract, Thirsk, Beverley, Hamilton on soft or worse going. Find one of these a fav writhing a week of running. You’ve probably found a weak fav.

Lightly raced horses who have ran last season between September and Nov who have shown improvement are ones to take seriously.

Don’t be afraid to bet 6,7,8 year olds who are exposed aslong as they have had one run this season.
They know the game and with a run in them can beat unexposed types, but only one run this season.
With exposed horses, look for ones where the same jockey who rode it late last season back onto day.
Some trainers are long term lookers and like to plan inadavance for the spring.

Hope this can give you some ideas of help, these are generally only for this time of year and wouldn’t advise these at a different time of year.
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