My trading journey so far (I'd love to hear yours too)

The sport of kings.
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brimson25
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LeTiss wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 2:45 pm
brimson25 wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 12:18 pm
Did you ever have a point Le Tiss when you thought - oh bvgger, I'm not going to make this?

Asking for a friend :oops:
Of course, yes

I had an eye watering loss on New Years Day 2008 (£2000), and decided I had 2 choices
A) Either Change
B) Accept Defeat

I'd got to the point where carrying on as before was no longer an option

Everytime I had a red screen, I would reward myself for trading out and accepting the loss. I remember having a phase of loving Toblerone at the time, so everytime a trade went wrong and I avoided going IP, I'd celebrate with a triangle of Toblerone! :lol:

Eventually, I found that it became second nature, and accepting red screens was simply part of the game

Another tactic of mine was how I staked. I'd noticed that my %S/R was about 75% - so even though my losing trades only equated for 25%, the losses would dwarf the winners, as I either got out too late, or would massively overstake to compensate for previous losers.

Therefore, I decided to approach this game as being all about ticks - if my tick sizes were always equal, then surely if I'm winning 75% of my trades, I must be able to at least break even, and that would be a start. If I set a target of winning £2 per tick (after greening), then that would safeguard me from disasters. That meant if I backed a 1.80 selection, the stakes would be £360. If I backed 2.42 the stakes would be £242. If I layed 6.60, the stakes would be £68 etc - I set up Excel to calculate all the permutations for me!

However, my losing trades were now always only £2 per tick, and this gave me the power to happily trade out for a loss, as I knew I was still going to be profitable over the course of the day. I basically tried to make a profit of level ticks each day, the money simply followed

Peter Webb has always been dubious about that tactic, but I can assure you, I wouldn't be here now if I hadn't done that. When you have a gambling background, the psychology of trading is far more problematic than reading graphs, or predicting the direction of a price

I don't do those level ticks now, but it was key in enabling me to intially navigate through those shark infested waters
Thanks for your reply.

I had a very predictable experience yesterday: I got dumbly frustrated with winning small amounts, I took stupid risks and had a losing day. I learnt that losing (a little) is worse than winning (a little).

I should know better.
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 3:58 pm
What is 'By tick size' supposed to acheive?
When I say ticks - I mean equal when hedged (i.e. £5 per tick - make 5 ticks (hedge it) - £25 profit after commision). Doesn't matter if it's a runner @ 10.0 or 2.0; if I make/lose 5 ticks, I know I'm making +/-£25

Just means that there's never a staking mistake (& allows more brain power devoted to market reading) - but you'd need to make sure the market/runner can take the per tick stakes. In theory that could be a new BA feature too! "Can the market take my stakes?"
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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 4:33 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 3:58 pm
What is 'By tick size' supposed to acheive?
When I say ticks - I mean equal when hedged
Yep I know, I mean't the existing 'By tick size' staking option.
eightbo
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Location: Malta / Australia

LeTiss wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 2:45 pm

Everytime I had a red screen, I would reward myself for trading out and accepting the loss. I remember having a phase of loving Toblerone at the time, so everytime a trade went wrong and I avoided going IP, I'd celebrate with a triangle of Toblerone! :lol:

Eventually, I found that it became second nature, and accepting red screens was simply part of the game

Another tactic of mine was how I staked. I'd noticed that my %S/R was about 75% - so even though my losing trades only equated for 25%, the losses would dwarf the winners, as I either got out too late, or would massively overstake to compensate for previous losers.

Therefore, I decided to approach this game as being all about ticks
thanks for posting, what you mentioned sounds scarily familiar!

Noticing high strike rate → leveling out tick sizes and seeing things in terms of ticks
Problems with loss aversion → switching tactics to rewarding/feeling good about taking a loss

I have an absolutely disgusting graph of market results from 2015 across 749 markets where I have 80% Strike rate (600W/149L) but ended up down massively due to OS/chasing. Actually, I incorporated in my routine to look at my graph of lifetime results before any trading session to remind me of what will happen if I don't accept losses as they arrive. Can't say for sure that taking losses is second nature to me but it feels noticeably more comfortable recently -- don't eat a bit of toblerone but use a visualisation technique to remind myself how taking the loss prevents the bigger and more destructive losses, then do some silly dance (recommended in a TED talk :lol:), of course I'll remain prudent but it's refreshing to hear you've eventually made it work with these methods :)
Last edited by eightbo on Wed May 23, 2018 6:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
trader44
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I'd celebrate with a triangle of Toblerone! "
when le tiss hit 48 stones he decided rewarding himself with an apple was the healthier option :lol:
trader44
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great thread by the way
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ruthlessimon
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eightbo wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 5:29 pm
I have an absolutely disgusting graph of market results from 2015 across 749 markets where I have 80% Strike rate (600W/149L) but ended up down massively due to OS/chasing.
Out of interest eight, would the 2015 - 2016 p&l look something like this?

Image

I think lots of people are happy talking about the OS/psychology bits etc. But once the breakeven grind starts - suddenly bog standard advice doesn't cut it - & those frictions are just as dangerous & will kill you!

Actually, perhaps a nice analogy: A breakeven trader has Ebola & will eventually bleed to death... unless they've got a good supply of intravenous capital :D ... however, the proper medicine needed to get out of the breakeven grind, is incredibly difficult to come across; but I have heard rumours there are stockpiles of the stuff in Hook! Although it only works on 5% of the population.
newaustralian
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Firstly what an interesting lot of posts. Secondly I know nothing about racing except in general the starting price is an indication of the chance of picking the winner and that in Australia 58% of racing are won by the top three in betting. Also not all races are suitable for trading or betting. Armed with this information making money out of betting must be easy!!!. ( I am conservative and usually lay). My first 12 bets were wins. Increase your bet was the voice in my head , you are on a winner!!. Bet 13 wiped out my winnings and 50% of my bank. My bank just kept reducing ( along with the extra funds) but that same voice in my head kept telling me the reduction in cash was the price of learning. Over the next few day I was picking ( usually at random) maybe 85% winners, note I lay only, but my bank was heading south. Something was wrong!!! - that story was from 9 years ago. I am still here so I must now be doing something correct.
I still know nothing about racing and the race statistics have not changed and I am selection about 86% lay winners, BUT I now have a money management system that is suitable for me. Rather than thinking race to race I think monthly and more importantly each bet is in isolation to the previous bet.
Over the past few year I have collected so much racing statistics I need a new filing sysytem. I know what type of races I find the best for me. I have found that betting for a place is not for me. I know what tracks suit my betting best etc. In general I know what conditions suit my way of betting. However, without a suitable money management all this statistical information would be of no value. My advice to any person who wants to, not only enjoy the fun of trading as well as the financial rewards, is firstly work out a money management system that works for you and then start determing your bets. As we all work within small margins record collecting is also essential. Happy punting!!
eightbo
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 6:51 pm
Out of interest eight, would the 2015 - 2016 p&l look something like this?
Image
@ruthlessimon
Saw you post this somewhere before, but yes it's pretty similar actually after aligning the start points and matching the lows! -- Check your inbox
Must have made in excess of 50 major mistakes that year! :oops: I see them as necessary straws on the camels back, though (given no mentor)


@newaustralian
Interesting! Your story makes me think of a staking example which made things click for me that money management is more important than your trading ability. I could see from my results that I'd often be overstaking way past 2K Kelly Criterion but was completely oblivious as to why  that was so suicidal/inefficient (and so never changed my behaviour).

The example for anyone interested:
You have the chance to play a coin flip game which returns 2/1 on winners -- even though you have a huge edge, if you don't stake appropriately you can destroy that edge and more.

With £100 start bank and 75% bet size
Game 1) bet £75 on heads (W), new bank = £250
Game 2) bet £187.5 on heads (L), new bank = £62.5
OverstakingExample.PNG

p.s. Call me sad but since then I've had a lot of fun working out how much risk one should  be taking in any one market given the various factors, + I really look forward to applying some of that theory when it comes to scaling up
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Last edited by eightbo on Thu May 24, 2018 6:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Naffman
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LeTiss wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 4:01 pm
Also, I've lost count about the number of new posters we've seen over the years, saying they want £100 per day, £200 per day.......
Peter literally creams his pants when he reads a newbie say that
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Crazyskier
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newaustralian wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 10:12 pm
I now have a money management system that is suitable for me. Rather than thinking race to race I think monthly and more importantly each bet is in isolation to the previous bet.
This simple sentence, when enacted rigorously, can transform the fortunes of 'traders' like me. Really great advice!

CS
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jimibt
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Crazyskier wrote:
Thu May 24, 2018 6:50 pm
newaustralian wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 10:12 pm
I now have a money management system that is suitable for me. Rather than thinking race to race I think monthly and more importantly each bet is in isolation to the previous bet.
This simple sentence, when enacted rigorously, can transform the fortunes of 'traders' like me. Really great advice!

CS
+1 on that sentence as well. tallies with how i see (but don't enact) my view of things
stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Really great posts in this thread, many thanks.

I won't bore anyone again about my blowouts I've experienced (hopefully in the past for me now anyway), but I've certainly been there.

I believe another big factor in getting 'off-tilt' and steady is to really learn about how trading fits with you, your personality, life and goals in general. I've often been trading while not in a good place in life, and it doesn't work. You have to know where you are heading (or trying at least).

As for trading making you money and happiness, that's an interesting combo too - see some mention that boredom happens even in steady wins. Then the inevitable crashes can follow that. I think again that relates to what your aims are for trading. I had to stop trying to see trading as solving my life - it won't do that in many cases. It might help, but that's all it can do for most.

Be realistic would perhaps be my golden nugget of advice.
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ShaunWhite
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stueytrader wrote:
Sat Jun 02, 2018 1:56 pm
see some mention that boredom happens even in steady wins.
You get steady wages in a 9 til 5 but it doesn't stop you getting bored. Trading isn't a magical fairyland of happiness, it's just a job like any other. Good days and dull ones.
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Cards37
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LeTiss wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 11:25 am
In 1989 I finished my A-Levels. I was a number cruncher and begrudgingly decided Accountancy might be the career for me. The problem was the prospect of Accountancy bored me - I was a young lad who enjoyed the wrong things too much - I liked to drink, loved having a bet, and was constantly looking for fresh bit of skirt to chase. I thought taking a year out would be a good idea, and ended up as a Trainee Betting Shop Manager for Ladbrokes. I was the last batch of trainee managers to get sent on a course for settling bets on a calculator - we were taught how to form markets etc, and as a number cruncher I excelled. I stayed for 5 years, and didn't go into Accountancy.
This might be an exceedingly dumb question, but are there any online resources/books etc on "how to form markets". It seems like a black art that bookmakers are wonderful at keeping to themselves. While I appreciate advanced models arent going to be out there, surely conceptually the material must have a common base that is freely available?
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