What is the expectancy?

The sport of kings.
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Maybe someone could help.

As some of you are aware. I chose one race meeting everyday and than pick 7 selections from that meeting.
When I chose the meeting their is no skill involved, usually the best quality meeting on the flat. If it’s the winter I will chose an AW meeting.

I chose 7 horses each time regardless of my confidence, if you haven’t read before I have spent the last 9 years trying to hit a 7 fold accumulator. Hit the bar a few times.

So I finished trading early today to work on some stats.

In 12 months since 1st April 2017 until today.

I have placed a total of 502 bets. Which is 3,515 selections.

Calculating my results at industry sp, if I placed £1 on each selection I would have made a loss of £40.93.

I am aware this is pretty good.

What I would like to know is their anyway to work out what I should have lost?

Should I have kept records for each over round of each market to work this out?
Each different market has a different overround. The lowest are usually around 110%. Should I mark that I should have lost around 10p to every selection?

If so that would -350. Which at sp seems like I didn’t really lose if I staked each singly for £1.

Cheers
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Whether it will help I had a 28.08% strike rate...
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Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Could you not obtain the average overround for races in the UK?

Alternatively you would calculate it yourself for a month and trust it would be similar for the year.
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