Trading Horse racing : Dobbing - Today's DOB's

The sport of kings.
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BetScalper
Posts: 810
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Wed May 23, 2018 11:33 am

Hi,

Is the Racing Post Predictor just a gimmick or is it in anyway accurate ?

Never seen it before, I ran the simulation on the 2.00pm at Ayr and it seems to suggest Wild Hope has a good chance, which seems to go against what everything else is saying. Is it worth using for an in-running place DOBBER ?

Be kind

:D

Cheers,

User avatar
Korattt
Posts: 1324
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

Wed May 23, 2018 11:37 am

BetScalper wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 11:33 am
Hi,

Is the Racing Post Predictor just a gimmick or is it in anyway accurate ?

Never seen it before, I ran the simulation on the 2.00pm at Ayr and it seems to suggest Wild Hope has a good chance, which seems to go against what everything else is saying. Is it worth using for an in-running place DOBBER ?

Be kind

:D

Cheers,
:roll:

Derek27
Posts: 2808
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Wed May 23, 2018 2:18 pm

BetScalper wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 11:33 am
Hi,

Is the Racing Post Predictor just a gimmick or is it in anyway accurate ?

Never seen it before, I ran the simulation on the 2.00pm at Ayr and it seems to suggest Wild Hope has a good chance, which seems to go against what everything else is saying. Is it worth using for an in-running place DOBBER ?

Be kind

:D

Cheers,
Are you being serious? Of course it's just a gimmick - there's either a human tipster behind it or it's just a simple system that works on basic facts/data.

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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 245
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Wed May 23, 2018 7:46 pm

BetScalper wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 11:33 am
Hi,

Is the Racing Post Predictor just a gimmick or is it in anyway accurate ?

Never seen it before, I ran the simulation on the 2.00pm at Ayr and it seems to suggest Wild Hope has a good chance, which seems to go against what everything else is saying. Is it worth using for an in-running place DOBBER ?

Be kind

:D

Cheers,
Not sure about the DOBBER idea, but it might be fun to see if there is anything that the predictors more or less agree on.

Lo and behold!

Kempton 8.55 tonight -----> Chetan currently trading at 12.00 to 12.50.

Racing Post Predictor;
RPost855.PNG
At The Races Predictor;
ATR855.PNG
For good measure Timeform 1-2-3. (an indicator of sorts)
Timeform855.PNG
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 245
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Wed May 23, 2018 7:47 pm

Also a pace map from Racing UK.
RUKPace855.PNG
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BetScalper
Posts: 810
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Wed May 23, 2018 7:57 pm

Interesting.....

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BetScalper
Posts: 810
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Wed May 23, 2018 8:06 pm

I put a small BTL trade on it for a laugh. :lol:
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2610
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Wed May 23, 2018 8:23 pm

If your looking for a systematic approach to d.o.b for example something that requires no effort than I would recommend concentrating on certain race types but most importantly the pace of the race.

Front runners in slow paces.

These predictors use ratings which include ground, tbh they are pretty basic. ATR predictor is by far the most reliable and I know they average about 12% strike rate. Which isnt too bad as not very often they are on the favourite.

I use to waste so much time, I mean 10 hours a day testing and think of systems to try and find a holy grail but racing is a bit like trading. Start fresh and find out the whys.

Questions to research:

Do horses really improve from long lay offs?
Do horses improve for quick turn outs?
How do horses perform after running on soft ground last time?
What age do horses regress?


I know it sounds crazy but their are literally thousands of questions you could research, not everything can give you answers sometimes can make it more puzzling but atleast you can look at race and go, ok this favourite ran 4 days ago on soft ground, now stepped up in trip. I know from my research this is a negative...

For example, the bounce factor on horses from a long break after they win... Its actually true and untrue. If they win from a very long break on soft or worse going they are incredible more likely to bounce and I would suggest its just because it takes effort to win on that going, whereas running on quick ground, is little effort for a horse superior to beat its apponents. John Gosden has his debut runners about 85% fit first time out but they still win, but if you looked on heavy ground they really dont.

User avatar
SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2610
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Wed May 23, 2018 8:37 pm

BetScalper wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 8:06 pm
I put a small BTL trade on it for a laugh. :lol:
I would change that to Fortune and Glory personally. :D

User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 245
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Wed May 23, 2018 8:43 pm

SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 8:23 pm
If your looking for a systematic approach to d.o.b for example something that requires no effort than I would recommend concentrating on certain race types but most importantly the pace of the race.

Front runners in slow paces.

These predictors use ratings which include ground, tbh they are pretty basic. ATR predictor is by far the most reliable and I know they average about 12% strike rate. Which isnt too bad as not very often they are on the favourite.

I use to waste so much time, I mean 10 hours a day testing and think of systems to try and find a holy grail but racing is a bit like trading. Start fresh and find out the whys.

Questions to research:

Do horses really improve from long lay offs?
Do horses improve for quick turn outs?
How do horses perform after running on soft ground last time?
What age do horses regress?


I know it sounds crazy but their are literally thousands of questions you could research, not everything can give you answers sometimes can make it more puzzling but atleast you can look at race and go, ok this favourite ran 4 days ago on soft ground, now stepped up in trip. I know from my research this is a negative...

For example, the bounce factor on horses from a long break after they win... Its actually true and untrue. If they win from a very long break on soft or worse going they are incredible more likely to bounce and I would suggest its just because it takes effort to win on that going, whereas running on quick ground, is little effort for a horse superior to beat its apponents. John Gosden has his debut runners about 85% fit first time out but they still win, but if you looked on heavy ground they really dont.
Nice post!

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