Dobbing - Today's DOB's

[wearthefoxhat]

I could be way off, but thought I'd post it up anyway.

Looking for a runner with a predicted chance of running a god race, good draw, pace setter. The ATR predicts a 3rd place, the draw is green, the Pace map is 10... and a M.Johnston runner too! Also on strong HCAP mark (Gold Icon)

Price is around 14/1 at the time of writing. (17.00 for small beer).

Southwell 2.50 1 Mile. Sunbreak

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[wearthefoxhat]

No joy on Sunbreak today, will forgive as it was it's first run for over a year.

The winner and second got on the front end and stayed there as tends to mostly happen @ Southwell.

[ANGELS15]

No joy on Sunbreak today, will forgive as it was it's first run for over a year.

The winner and second got on the front end and stayed there as tends to mostly happen @ Southwell.

I've found this month my selections have been performing below expectations. Can't really understand it as there's no real excuses: The weather's been ok no abandonments so it's not as if trainer's have been unable to exercise their horses. Also the season's well underway?

[ANGELS15]

One thing I've noticed is that just purely by bad luck this month there's been several instances when I've expected a horse to front run as it's the most likely front runner and it's been held up and something that doesn't normally front run has done so to good effect.

[wearthefoxhat]

No joy on Sunbreak today, will forgive as it was it's first run for over a year.

The winner and second got on the front end and stayed there as tends to mostly happen @ Southwell.

I've found this month my selections have been performing below expectations. Can't really understand it as there's no real excuses: The weather's been ok no abandonments so it's not as if trainer's have been unable to exercise their horses. Also the season's well underway?

It could be that "connections" have more accurate information available to them pre-race (as we all do), to develop a game plan. This in many cases requires a more prominent front running role that in itself can result in a clear winner. All Weather Racing and the draw/pace elements certainly do this, so you may suddenly see a charge by a jockey to get that position. The closers/held up types can also benefit in some cases, but in the main can be readily ignored for this exercise.

Also, if a trainer thinks their horse has a poor handicap mark, it's very easy to get it beat by positioning it badly in a race and allow something else to charge off in front...allegedly...

[wearthefoxhat]

Just for interest, using the posts recently made, there are 3 that have got interesting profiles, 1 is a Hcap Hurdle.

Lingfield 12.40 Fieldsman
Leicester 2.00 Jacbequick
Kempton 6.45 Champagne Champ

With AWR, I visualise the race as I do with greyhound races. Likely EP/Fast Away types, get in front at the first bend and have a profile to run a big race overall, maybe actually win...

[wearthefoxhat]

Only 1 (Jacbequick) Dobbed, all 3 of their prices got well bashed before the off though. (not by me)

I did have some success with Qobs (Quarter or bust) scoring a full house....9/9.

Dec12Qobs.PNG

Somewhere back in this thread I highlighted this approach with some success, but didn't want it going off-thread re-Dobs.

For me, it does show with a little planning, there are different ways to approach IP trading using free resources, available to anyone.

[ANGELS15]

Only 1 (Jacbequick) Dobbed, all 3 of their prices got well bashed before the off though. (not by me)

I did have some success with Qobs (Quarter or bust) scoring a full house....9/9.


Dec12Qobs.PNG


Somewhere back in this thread I highlighted this approach with some success, but didn't want it going off-thread re-Dobs.

For me, it does show with a little planning, there are different ways to approach IP trading using free resources, available to anyone.

Does this mean the horses odds only have to fall by 25%? Not sure if my mental arithmetic is right but example back at odds 12.0 for £10 lay at 9.0 for £12.50?

[ANGELS15]

Only 1 (Jacbequick) Dobbed, all 3 of their prices got well bashed before the off though. (not by me)

I did have some success with Qobs (Quarter or bust) scoring a full house....9/9.


Dec12Qobs.PNG


Somewhere back in this thread I highlighted this approach with some success, but didn't want it going off-thread re-Dobs.

For me, it does show with a little planning, there are different ways to approach IP trading using free
resources, available to anyone.

Does this mean the horses odds only have to fall by 25%? Not sure if my mental arithmetic is right but example back at odds 12.0 for £10 lay at 9.0 for £12.50?

[wearthefoxhat]

Only 1 (Jacbequick) Dobbed, all 3 of their prices got well bashed before the off though. (not by me)

I did have some success with Qobs (Quarter or bust) scoring a full house....9/9.


Dec12Qobs.PNG


Somewhere back in this thread I highlighted this approach with some success, but didn't want it going off-thread re-Dobs.

For me, it does show with a little planning, there are different ways to approach IP trading using free
resources, available to anyone.

Does this mean the horses odds only have to fall by 25%? Not sure if my mental arithmetic is right but example back at odds 12.0 for £10 lay at 9.0 for £12.50?

B2Lcalc.PNG

£12.50 @ 9.60 will give the 25% QOB.

I would then roll on the profit from each coup. (The only risk is the initial unit stake)

[wearthefoxhat]

Going for 5 Qobs's in a row = Approx 2/1 (5*1.25 cumulative)

QobsDec13.PNG

It's not a system as that would require rigid ABC rules, it's more a method that requires fluidity and in some cases interpretation. The ATR predictor is a personal choice as it's all under one website. Other predictors can be personal ratings, RPR, Betting Forecasts....etc

If ATR website info changes from Jan 1st, pace info can be found on other websites fro free, RUK, Winning Warlock (angels15 mentioned). Also there ones you can pay for.

[wearthefoxhat]

4/5 Qobs today.

Shankrlys Dawn @ Tramore drifted from 5.50 to 22.0 pre-off! Normally clear pace setter, kept in mid-div and the gambled on Rocky's Silver picks up race easily from a long way out. Have put Shanklys Dawn in my tracker for next time. (All other Qob's all went as expected)

[wearthefoxhat]

Todays Qobs.

Cross referenced the RUK maps with the ATR ones. Noticed a couple of steamers already.

Qob14Dec.PNG

[wearthefoxhat]

Great day today 6/6
(Also 6 others on my original list also would of hit their Qob's too)

It goes without saying, trying to find the entry point "sweet spot" is crucial to trading. (The 25% exit point is already established). As already highlighted in the thread, the information is easy to find and IMO fairly easy to visualise how the race will pan out.

I set up in the morning and let the automation take over through-out the day and go IP, if the Pre-trade hasn't matched. The only one that had to go in-play was Rag Tatter. (needn't had worried on that one)

I feel I left money on the table with a couple of later ones. (now I'm getting greedy) but that's hindsight.

lygon rock.PNG

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So there you have it. Good luck if you follow something on these lines.

[rkylax]

Hey guys, not sure if people here use the in-running-trading-tool to gather info on possible Dobbers. (I'm not very active on forums and usually just do my own thing

Anyhow I created a plugin that I'm testing out, it highlights the rows that are interesting enough to have a closer look into.
(in my case I want >75%, more than X amount of runs before I even consider looking closer)...

Anyhow, just wanted to share a screenshot



http://prntscr.com/m8d3cj

http://prntscr.com/m8d3cj