Becoming a student of the market

[ShaunWhite]

.... example, when I started out I soon realised I could pretty much break even (excl commish for arguments sake) with my eyes shut. But being impulsive, ill disciplined, wreckless and an ex gambler, everyday I'd f it up. I hit the psych stuff hard and after a looong battle I broke my bad habits (6 months probably) The problem then became turning the breakeven into profit so the numbers took priority. I never look at the psych stuff these days, but if I start to slip into old habits, I'll be closing excel and getting the books out again pronto.

Work on whatever is your highest priority bug, but make some time available every week for the lower priority stuff or it will always be at the bottom of your in-tray.

[ShaunWhite]

I wonder; when Peter was in his trading infancy; how much of the "out of market hours time" (devoted to trading related activities); was specifically aimed at psychology. I struggle to believe 80%, more like 20% max IMHO.

From what I recall, sorry Peter if this is wrong, other than learning to take more risk (ie no serious personality flaw) his early priority was always stats. It's as time has progressed he's become more interested in the human condition.

Exact opposite to my position and I suspect many others. I sense you're starting from a position close to Peter's, my starting point is far nearer LeTiss who, and I hope he doesn't mind me saying, began with an unwelcome compulsion to gamble and to see red mist from time to time. Now both successful guys.

[Korattt]

for me I think people can look for stuff that isn't there, & with my experience with what I know now I'm guilty of that.

For example Monday's & Tuesday's I'm starting to get the message that they really aren't bothering with because the edge I've become confident with doesn't really work on those days, what I'm saying is that I used to treat all days the same & look for the same opportunities all day every day but for me just doesn't work.

I use to meticulously copy & paste the BF Graphs & 'chop them up' to see of I was able to spot anything - just ain't worth it - total waste of time, feel stupid & silly now even thinking of me doing that.. what a numpty.

What moves markets?, money, when do punters put their money down?, when they've lost their money on the last race, the trick is to spot where the money is.. the genuine money at that, basically have an idea what you want to do, wait until you see something & then act on it, this isn't easy but you can do it, you can, just takes time.. a lot of time, I've been off work since mid February with a broken foot, every day, I've watched videos I've recorded, been in the markets day in day out from, I've had the PC on from 6am sometimes watching Euler's videos, getting them carved into my brain, asking myself, "why, how, when, why, how, when" & the work out how you are able to get the best out of what tools are available to you to achieve similar results.

Peter on his YT videos mentions that he is quite rare with the fact that he has the ability to read markets like no one else, that's what I aspire to, that's the level I look to, if I can get near that then it will be all worth it but I will need to work at it, we all do & damn hard as well, the thing is many people will attempt trading in their spare time, maybe over two weekends a month (due to work / social commitments et al) but not get down & dirty with it so to speak, that's where people fail (I think), not prepared to take the time it needs to tackle it seriously, to go through the mistakes, the money lost, the head scratching through looking for stuff that ain't there et al, the desk banging & everything else that goes with it.

[stueytrader]

There is a bottom line to this discussion, in that ultimately all trading comes down to psychology in a certain sense.

Even bots were programmed by humans, with their own psychology at work during that time. And if we move into manual trading then of course every single action comes essentially from a person's psychology.

To ignore that (especially in your own trading) is surely missing a key point.

[ruthlessimon]

Even bots were programmed by humans, with their own psychology at work during that time. And if we move into manual trading then of course every single action comes essentially from a person's psychology.

Cor blimey, you've really blurred the lines with that one

That's like saying "exams are all psychology". True, but not applicable.

The people who do best in those exams (the top 5%) - tend to have revised, tend to have had expert 1to1 tuition (tailored to themselves). Now yes, they could crack under the pressure - but by revising - they've stacked the cards in their favour (hedging against the psychological pitfalls). In a trading sense, people simply don't know how to revise. & the people who do know how to revise, are bloody quiet! "Do I look at a market then back fit something? But if I cut my losses... How do I prove that this is better than a coin flip? etc etc?"

Maybe there are some super talented people who just "get it"; but most consistent top performers, don't "wing it". Imagine Guardiola at halftime going, "yeah just wing it lads, it's all in your head". No, he doesn't do that, he's a tactical genius never resting on his laurels. "As soon as we lose the ball, you've got to track 8. As soon as we win possession, I need you getting chalk on your boots. 6 is a lazy defender consistently ball watching - go exploit him, quick one-two should be all it takes.". It's quantifiable, actionable advice.

Note how if the advice is "yeah just wing it lads", I could be a football manager; we all could. Exactly the same with trade psychology, & why it's so prevalent - anyone can be an expert.

[eightbo]

:looks around:

Fact: About 80% of your brain is water
and judging from this thread, the other 20% must be psychology

[stueytrader]

Even bots were programmed by humans, with their own psychology at work during that time. And if we move into manual trading then of course every single action comes essentially from a person's psychology.

Cor blimey, you've really blurred the lines with that one

That's like saying "exams are all psychology". True, but not applicable.

To be fair, my post was partly tongue-in-cheek, but only partly. I did post earlier that of course you need more than a good mindset, and of course knowledge about how to trade is also essential.

But, the point I'm trying to make clear is that everything we do comes down to our own (fallible) psychology in essence, and that this is a far wider issue than simply not losing discipline. So keeping that 'in mind' (pardon the pun) is pretty important to all traders IMO.