arbitrage16 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:54 pmhttps://imgur.com/a/VnsXN6x
Above is the chart for Burj, a great steamer that I think looked a viable move from about 1.8 down to 1.5. I "knew" this was coming in, because of various other signals, but what I am struggling with here is getting the right entry, as I entered at about 1.7 and it drifted and so I exited, of course for it to duly come back in.
Currently I perceive my issue to be waiting for steamers to break out of their range before I back them i.e. I want a 'certain' trade, but am aware that thinking in probabilities is pertinent here also.
Perhaps the help I'm looking for is around the notion of support/resistance, or perhaps having better understanding from a technical analysis POV. Any guidance much appreciated
This was a pretty simple set up for me, odds on favourite with the 2nd favourite priced about 4 and the next runner was around 10 I think. I got on at 1.82, nothing else was being backed so I expected this to come in a long way, its amazing how often these kinds of runners will come all the way in and hit 1.50.
Arbitrage16 if I was you I wouldn't be too hard on myself, you were caught out by the market noise as another poster suggested but in this case the noise was pretty loud. I remember some pretty big money appeared on the lay side and caught my attention, I was ready to dump the position but first I checked to see if one of the horses legs had fallen off, horse looked fine and the 2nd favourite wasnt been backed plus as I said earlier I was thinking that this price could go all the way down to 1.50 so from a risk v reward point of view it was worth hanging on a little longer, I held the position and sure enough it turned and headed nearly all the way to 1.50.
In these scenarios its important to have an idea of how much you're willing to lose and it should never be more than how much you think you could make. Approach your trades lke that and it will be much easier to pull the trigger when you need to.