Backtesting irregularities

[ruthlessimon]

Perhaps; but I'm about furthering understanding & challenging trading dogma He's been trading 4 yrs, I'm expecting Webb style trading from Korattt with that level of experience (i.e. regular 3fig days & quitting the day job permanently)

True. I don't have the current understanding for dealing with "changes", but like Tony mentioned - I think this pattern has been there for yr's, but "concept drift" is certainly a bridge I wanna cross soon

[ShaunWhite]

Old data might tell you the climate, but the weather is what's tight up against the right hand side of the charts.

Take the WC late goals phenomenon: markets seemed efficient re late goals in the past (climate), something changed and opportunity arose (weather), the market adjusted to take account of the weather (opportunity gone). Your question now is has there been climate change, or will futher opportunity arise when the climate returns and everyone is still dressed for the weather?

I'm guessing still, but I think I'm not far off with that. It fits the continual reassessment idea more closely than anything else I've thought of so far.

[ShaunWhite]

This 'quick look at the forum' has blown away what''s supposed to be an afternoon off (shame the sun's gone in).
I'll catch up with you later.

[ruthlessimon]

But what's your defence for this?? (http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/Recency_bias)

-k catch ya soon

[ruthlessimon]

by studying the charts of the day thread, there is practically the fundamentals there to put oneself in positive trading territory

Although the way I tested it was very crude (i.e. only price). I made sure the strategy was guaranteed to trade all the markets that would make graph of the day (short fav's only). Here's what the equity curve looks like for April, May, start of June



The hallmarks of a random strategy

[ruthlessimon]

by studying the charts of the day thread, there is practically the fundamentals there to put oneself in positive trading territory

What I'm getting at is, the graphs alone, are useless for understanding the logic behind the trader winning on that said market. If they were doing it just via price (as you assume) they'd be unprofitable. Their logic is far deeper & more complex

[Korattt]

by studying the charts of the day thread, there is practically the fundamentals there to put oneself in positive trading territory

What I'm getting at is, the graphs alone, are useless for understanding the logic behind the trader winning on that said market. If they were doing it just via price (as you assume) they'd be unprofitable. Their logic is far deeper & more complex

Simon, who said anything about looking at the graphs?

[ruthlessimon]

Simon, who said anything about looking at the graphs?

Sorry if you meant something else, I just assumed "studying the charts of the day thread" meant literally looking at patterns in the charts posted on that thread (i.e. one-way movers)

[Korattt]

Simon, who said anything about looking at the graphs?

Sorry if you meant something else, I just assumed "studying the charts of the day thread" meant literally looking at patterns in the charts posted on that thread (i.e. one-way movers)

think you were thinking too fast there my friend