School boy error today

The sport of kings.
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FrogThimble
Posts: 124
Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:26 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:13 pm



Why do you take a position pre off if you believe your forte is in play trading? I'm not sure why you say you can't make a profit pre-off and then open your trades pre-off. Surely the opening trade is generally where you'll pick up the initial value, and if not then why open it.
The only reason I say that I can't make a profit pre-off is that I can't make a profit pre-off. I have no science to back that up other than that I've never been able to overall. My skill set just does not include the ability to guess pre-off price movements.

On the other hand, doing what I am doing at the moment is going pretty well. I choose the horse to trade within the last minute before the off (based on my own extremely simple mathematical formula) and then trade out of my position for profit or loss during the race. I always do Lay to Back as I consider Back to Lay to be too risky - as, obviously, no trade out is possible from an initially backed horse that falls.

I suppose we all have to do what we each finds works for us? So far this is working out more than OK for me. All I know is that I mostly lose money pre-off, I tend to break even overall in pure in-play and I tend to make decent profits with this hybrid open pre-off to trade out in-play approach.
Dadders
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:36 pm

Hi FrogThimble,

Any chance you could explain your simple mathematical formula?

Regards,

Matt
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

One of the biggest reasons for people failing in sports trading - letting bad trades go 'IP', I used to be one of them

The way I look at it now though, is by asking myself this question -
If I've backed a team for a £250 trade and am faced with a disappointing red of £10, why would I not accept that and move on, as opposed to thinking it will go my way during the match. Before I'd entered that trade, would i be happy having a £250 gamble that the price will go a certain way IP? - NO is the answer!

Sometimes, you just need to step back and look at what you're doing with different eyes
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Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

I've only done it a few times in my early days of trading. My problem though, was that even though I knew from the outset that it was a bad bet, I was hoping it would go my way and as the race started I would swear to myself that I will never do it again. The motivation behind the madness was that I was desperate not to blow everything I've gained in the last two days. Needless to say, the end result is that sooner or later you blow everything you've gained in the last two weeks, or more!

The best advice I can give new traders from my experience, is that if you cut your losses in such circumstances, your biggest losses, however painful, will be a distant memory in a weeks time.
threedogs
Posts: 79
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:24 am

Have a look at this its trading with no idea where the price is going ...
Advanced Coin Flip Trading Strategy on Betfair - YouTube
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

threedogs wrote:
Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:37 pm
Have a look at this its trading with no idea where the price is going ...
Is it cctv of my screen?
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

threedogs wrote:
Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:37 pm
Have a look at this its trading with no idea where the price is going ...
Image
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