Nice to see ya again JGJollyGreen wrote: ↑Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:53 amI know that sounds simplistic but read on. So we can see the money coming for the favourite and it's slowly gathering momentum. They fancy this one and the money is coming. Suddenly, there is large amount queued and this strikes fear into some people. I take a simple view "if the market is supporting this horse, why would a savvy person go against the move?" The chances are they wouldn't!!
Talking of simplicity, couldn't this be simplified to just time & price (i.e. avoiding spoof entirely - for say a newbie trader), who could then learn to incorporate volume in the future?
Below are two ideas, put forward by two traders, & I just wondered, 1. Which strategy would you recommend 2. Where would you see the problems in the following ideas? 3. If you recommended a strategy, what steps would you take to improve the strategy further (after all volume is completely omitted)
Strategy 1. A trader is looking to only trade markets priced at 2.xx. The trader finds that over a large sample size, the average race end is xx:xx. Said trader then takes the price of the fav at xx:xx, & sets two boundaries (these will be the trader's future entries) 2.xx + x ticks, & 2.xx - x ticks (let's assume x is 8 ticks - a decent "sustained" move in one direction). If one of those boundaries gets hit, he enters in that direction & holds to 00:00.
Strategy 2. A trader is only looking to trade markets price at 2.xx. The trader finds that over a large sample size, the average race end is xx:xx. The trader backs at xx:xx & holds to 00:00.