Trading Horse racing : Spotting spoof money

The sport of kings.
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JollyGreen
Posts: 2011
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:19 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:10 pm
JollyGreen wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:49 pm
So Peter does his analysis but when it comes to trading he does it naturally and performs what works without getting bogged down in over analysis
I told you Simon, he's just winging it :) aka Pragmatism

Your comments bouy me up no end JG, I dabble with the data out of a sense of 'he does so I should'. I say 'dabble' but it's about 20hrs a week.... But I don't have a 1000yrs worth and a PhD in stats so it's never going to be what gives me all the answers. I'm more your duck hunting type anyway.

I was concerned though that I only clung onto this view because, frankly, that's all I've got to go on....especially when my trading buddy is so incredibly staty.

Si, it's a shame our double act looks like Cannon & Ball compared to JG&PW's Morecombe and Wise but there's hope yet:)
Good reply, made me :D

It's true though, Peter and I can sit and talk trading all night and we often do. In fact, it is usually over a curry and we are still talking when the meal is over. We talk about all aspects from placing an order to the psychology and some of the crazy comments and messages we have received. I talk about crazy things I have seen and even crazier ideas I have come up with. Some are total nonsense and are short lived, others really do work and Peter is off analysing them. I know if I share something with him it will not be splashed all over the place and it is reciprocal. There are far better people out there than me, I have no doubt about that but I do know what works and I plough on accordingly.

I have shown stuff to Peter and it's been a WTF moment, it just seems crazy. I have no idea why it is happening, I just know it is. Peter will then analyse it, we'll check it again and then we get a grasp on why. I personally do not believe you can understand it 100% but if it works.....well it's duck hunting season!! :D

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ruthlessimon
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Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:27 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:10 pm
Your comments bouy me up no end JG
You're a victim of confirmation bias Shaun :D

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ShaunWhite
Posts: 3704
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:38 pm

:) It's true JG, I'll give him an idea, and when he nods his head, I'll hit it.

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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:40 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:27 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:10 pm
Your comments bouy me up no end JG
You're a victim of confirmation bias Shaun :D
....say's Mr sunk cost fallacy :) I'm not a victim Si, I think the correct term these days is 'survivor'

...we're here all week folks, tickets from the pier box office.

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ruthlessimon
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Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:46 pm

I think it's been interesting :D

But it's unfair!! How can I fight the data corner solo when I'm up against yourself & JG???

I need some backup from the proper quants Peter, Dallas, PeteLe, SB, Linus etc :)

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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:52 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:46 pm
I think it's been interesting :D

But it's unfair!! How can I fight the data corner solo when I'm up against yourself & JG???

I need some backup from the proper quants Peter, Dallas, PeteLe, SB, Linus etc :)
I look forward to that.
Now I like quant, and I like pragmatism.....but which ones best?....fight !!!!

Truth is Simon they're bedfellows, queue more Morcombe & Wise imagary :)

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JollyGreen
Posts: 2011
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:13 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:46 pm
I think it's been interesting :D

But it's unfair!! How can I fight the data corner solo when I'm up against yourself & JG???

I need some backup from the proper quants Peter, Dallas, PeteLe, SB, Linus etc :)
PeterLe is another good friend, great guy! I met him when his ideas were in their infancy. He contacted me and asked if I would show him manual trading and help him understand the markets more. He hated manual trading but kudos to him he made the automation pay. Hand on heart, he never showed me what he did and I never asked. He offered to run it for me in privacy but I was happy with what I was doing. He is one of the few people I know who have made automation pay. I am not saying there aren't plenty more, just that I don't know them!

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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:17 pm

Can I throw traders' money into the spoof money issue? Those times when everyone's sat with a couple of specultive orders, waiting for a bounce at evens or whereever, sat at what's expected to be support or resistance.....and if it starts getting taken too quickly or something changes....it gets pulled...and bang? Is that a thing? I think I see it and it's a lot more common than straightforward spoofing.

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ruthlessimon
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Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:34 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:17 pm
Those times when everyone's sat with a couple of specultive orders, waiting for a bounce at evens or whereever, sat at what's expected to be support or resistance.....and if it starts getting taken too quickly or something changes....it gets pulled...and bang? Is that a thing?
Couldn't this all just be put under the umbrella of "order flow"?

If price is coming down to 2.0, does it matter if the money is pulled or matched? It would mean the same.

My query is in this day & age, is order flow enough - personally I don't think so - however, is certainly a vital component for execution.

Right time to get your dictionaries out lads :D Cue Mr. Stats: depending on how the other runners have reacted to the steam on the fav (& where the fav has come from i.e. mmwap) - does this influence the chance of the fav's price hitting 1.91.

Those are the question I try & answer using data, albeit perhaps not the optimal way to utilise such info.

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ShaunWhite
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Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:55 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:34 pm
If price is coming down to 2.0, does it matter if the money is pulled or matched? It would mean the same.
No.

My head's in footy mode now but my take is ..

If there's a queue of punters with a total of 5 grand and 5 grand is sat at 2.0; if they blink and the 5 grand has gone you know where the price is going....1.something.

but,
If there's a queue of punters with a total of 5 grand and 5 grand is at at 2.0, and it stays there, they'll all get matched and you'd need another queue of punters to turn up to push it lower.

Ordinary people move the market and their pockets are only so deep, the queue is only so long.

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