Trading Horse racing : A question for newbies & beginners

The sport of kings.
spreadbetting
Posts: 1690
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Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:55 pm

brimson25 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:12 pm


I've been around gambling and poker for many years. I've been (very) successful in both and taken some (huge) real beatings from both. My long-term failure in each is pretty much certain; my leak is my anger/ self-loathing and sabotaging behaviour.
Not sure you can be successful and a long term failure, the successful sections are probably just good runs of wins and then the inevitable long runs of losses are your beatings.

I've never been too convinced of the self sabotage argument people use , that's a kind of chicken and the egg type situation, the loathing and sabotage hardly comes when people are doing well it just comes out as an excuse when they start to do bad, of which poor runs will always be inevitable. In general people fail because they don't have an 'edge' over the market and then have bad money management skills when things go wrong which compounds the issue. It then becomes a case of people blaming the latter rather than admit the former as it's always easier to find quick answers.

brimson25
Posts: 287
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:33 pm

Maybe.

But I think it's at least conceivable that people self-sabotage.

I'm also not convinced that it's somehow preferable or more laudable to say that you're a self-sabotaging nutter, than that you don't have an edge.

It's probably for me a bit of both, but it's very hard to prove I suppose. And given it's hard to prove, you can pick either explanation - nutter vs no edge; losing is losing is losing.

In any case, to return to the question, how long do I think it's going to take me to crack? Probably never.

I shall log off for the final time (whenever that may be) with a shameful P/L history. Oh well. :)

arbitrage16
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Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:06 pm

brimson25 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:12 pm
I'm as close and as far as ever.

I've been around gambling and poker for many years. I've been (very) successful in both and taken some (huge) real beatings from both. My long-term failure in each is pretty much certain; my leak is my anger/ self-loathing and sabotaging behaviour. I suspect it will be the same for this. I sometimes think that catastrophic defeat is actually what I want. If I'm ever able to get a grip of my own mind, I think I could get good regular returns. Chances of getting said grip are probably somewhere between 10% and 20%. Time scale? Unsure, about 6 months, I'll know.

The sad truth to the question: why do many gamblers gamble if they keep losing? ... is that they want to lose because it's a sort of affirmation of their internal "I'm a screw-up" narrative. (That's why the "when the fun stops, stop" slogan is so funny. It stopped a long bloody time ago).

I think that's probably not quite as true of most traders, who, judging by this forum seem more level-headed and grown-up.
Recommend a book called psycho-cybernetics by Maxwell Maltz

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Korattt
Posts: 1328
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:16 pm

brimson25 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:33 pm

In any case, to return to the question, how long do I think it's going to take me to crack? Probably never.

I shall log off for the final time (whenever that may be) with a shameful P/L history. Oh well. :)
keep plugging away, you will find a way

spreadbetting
Posts: 1690
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:42 pm

brimson25 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:33 pm

It's probably for me a bit of both, but it's very hard to prove I suppose. And given it's hard to prove, you can pick either explanation - nutter vs no edge; losing is losing is losing.
But if you can correctly identify why you're losing it's a lot easier to correct it.

brimson25
Posts: 287
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:29 am

arbitrage16 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:06 pm
brimson25 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:12 pm
I'm as close and as far as ever.

I've been around gambling and poker for many years. I've been (very) successful in both and taken some (huge) real beatings from both. My long-term failure in each is pretty much certain; my leak is my anger/ self-loathing and sabotaging behaviour. I suspect it will be the same for this. I sometimes think that catastrophic defeat is actually what I want. If I'm ever able to get a grip of my own mind, I think I could get good regular returns. Chances of getting said grip are probably somewhere between 10% and 20%. Time scale? Unsure, about 6 months, I'll know.

The sad truth to the question: why do many gamblers gamble if they keep losing? ... is that they want to lose because it's a sort of affirmation of their internal "I'm a screw-up" narrative. (That's why the "when the fun stops, stop" slogan is so funny. It stopped a long bloody time ago).

I think that's probably not quite as true of most traders, who, judging by this forum seem more level-headed and grown-up.
Recommend a book called psycho-cybernetics by Maxwell Maltz
Thank you, I'll have a look.

brimson25
Posts: 287
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:30 am

spreadbetting wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:42 pm
brimson25 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:33 pm

It's probably for me a bit of both, but it's very hard to prove I suppose. And given it's hard to prove, you can pick either explanation - nutter vs no edge; losing is losing is losing.
But if you can correctly identify why you're losing it's a lot easier to correct it.
That's true.

brimson25
Posts: 287
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:30 am

Korattt wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:16 pm
brimson25 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:33 pm

In any case, to return to the question, how long do I think it's going to take me to crack? Probably never.

I shall log off for the final time (whenever that may be) with a shameful P/L history. Oh well. :)
keep plugging away, you will find a way
Cheers. Well, something has to change soon.

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eightbo
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Location: Bristol, England, UK
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Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:08 am

brimson25 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:33 pm
Maybe.

But I think it's at least conceivable that people self-sabotage.
For the purpose of this post I'm going to assume by self-sabotage you mean you're deliberately making mistakes. And like you've probably already heard, this game is about eliminating mistakes -- or, not losing [significantly]. So in this post I'll talk about how you should be going about doing that, regardless of whether or not you're self-sabotaging.

Sure, self-sabotage may be the actual cause of your demise, but such psychological issues are very loosely in our control, meaning we don't have (or believe we have) much ability/likelihood to overcome these issues. Firstly I'd propose it's much more useful for you to blame something more tangible and in your control, for example, a lack of organisation and execution of that organisation.
e.g. "For me to avoid major mistakes, I must define my trading decisions based on logic to ensure I don't encounter mistakes, and not deviate from those decisions" - so that's having a trading plan and being able to follow it.

So this could result in 3 major camps:
A) no defined trading plan = significant long-term loser
B) defined trading plan (not consistently adhered to) = significant long-term loser
C) defined trading plan (strictly adhered to) = slight long-term loser / break-even / profitable (depends on edge)

If you're in camp A/B, there's no point worrying about if you have an edge or not, it's more beneficial to identify and eliminate any major mistakes you're repeatedly making, as once they're all gone, your results will literally tell you what your edge is (you can analyse + tweak from there)

I think that believing psychological issues such as self-sabotage to be the actual cause for you being a long-term loser sets you on the path for guaranteed failure regardless of whether or not its true. By believing you're the victim of your own psychological issues, you're essentially saying: "I keep deviating from my plan, and the cause is a psychological issue, which is out of my control"

...or perhaps more accurately:
"I keep deviating from my plan and the cause is a psychological issue which has formed gradually over many years and will likely take a huge amount of effort to change and may even be so cemented into my personality that it may never change at all

Can you see how these beliefs might be self-fulfilling? Dangerous stuff!

Instead, attempt to tie your losses to things within your control by attempting to identify triggers which set off whatever 'self-sabotaging' behaviour you think you might have (mistakes).
e.g. "I keep deviating from my plan because I'm unable to stomach losses above £x"

The process should be:
- Trade
- Log your mistakes
- Analyse them outside of trading hours (calm, logical state)
- Identify trigger for those logged mistakes (guess if nothing is obvious)
- Implement a new behavioural change which aims to avoid the trigger in the first place

Repeat until you've eliminated the mistake. Move on to the next mistake.

Realise that even if you truly are self-sabotaging, this will still be triggered behaviour, and is as such avoidable.
e.g. you begin to make mistakes (deviate from your trading plan) when you're up x amount in the day.

...In such a case you'd first seek to identify what the amount was (prudency is your friend), then come up with and implement a behavioural change such as "If I ever reach +£x in the day, I will stop trading to prevent my self-sabotaging behaviour"

gl

brimson25
Posts: 287
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:21 pm

Thanks very much for this post, it's incredibly thoughtful, and helpful. An awful lot for me to think about.

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