A question for newbies & beginners

The sport of kings.
Bluesky
Posts: 420
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:26 pm

Excellent post eightbo, one of the best I have read on this site for ages.
User avatar
brimson25
Posts: 504
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

Bluesky wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:55 am
Excellent post eightbo, one of the best I have read on this site for ages.
Absolutely agree.
User avatar
Allan R
Posts: 31
Joined: Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:21 am

could anybody tell me why guardian only runs if i have it open and dont move to another market on the one click screen...if i change market on 1 click screen or shut guardian..the automation stops working??...any ideas plz.
Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

When you have the market open it naturally is refreshing as you would expect but when you close the market it will refresh as governed by your guardian. Have a look at the 'Advanced' tab in guardian - check if the restrict refresh is ticked - if it is - either untick or set the restriction to the period you require.
User avatar
Allan R
Posts: 31
Joined: Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:21 am

Jukebox wrote:
Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:10 pm
When you have the market open it naturally is refreshing as you would expect but when you close the market it will refresh as governed by your guardian. Have a look at the 'Advanced' tab in guardian - check if the restrict refresh is ticked - if it is - either untick or set the restriction to the period you require.
ill try that..thanks
User avatar
Allan R
Posts: 31
Joined: Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:21 am

hi, just 2 quick questions..as im new to this, i was just wondering if anybody has ever backed a horse at 1000/1..and also, why would somebody offer odds of 1000/1?
if anyone could take the time to answer, i would be grateful
thx
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23468
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Traders will back a horse at 1000 if they think the price will half, a gambler will back it if they think it has a better than 1000 chance.

Poeple lay at 1000 if they think (or hope) it has no chance of winning.
Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

There are many reasons - but mainly - as with any horse at any odds - because they hope to profit from it. The reason 1000 occurs so often though is because thats the highest Betfair allows - so if you think a horse has only a 2,000/1, 5,000/1 or 10,000/1 or even no chance - as a layer 1000 is the best you can offer.
I remember Peter Webb once saying that he'd both backed a 1000 winner - and laid a 1.01 loser - (There was at least one of those today at Ascot)
Outside of horse racing Leicester City famously won the premier league with early odds at the bookies of 5000/1 - you'd not have got better than 1000 on Betfair - but you might have laid it on the exchange.

Euler put up a list a few days ago that included a couple of golfers at The Open who started at 1000 and made the cut and their odds had consequently dropped considerably.
iambic_pentameter
Posts: 443
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm

There was a user by the name of Warwick Hunt on the Betfair Official Forums who laid a 1000 winner for £150

In his defence, the commentator had called the wrong horse but still would be filed under "Not a great day at the office"
User avatar
Dublin_Flyer
Posts: 688
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am

I've found 4 that started at 1000 on Horseracebase;
1000 BFSP winners.JPG
Reason being people might offer 1000 are many, maybe they've watched the horse and didn't like what they saw previously, maybe they're bookmaking and need to offer the max price on one horse to balance their book/make their margin, or the trainer got lucky.

In the 4 cases where the winner started at 1000, there was either an odds on fav, or a fav and 2nd fav way lower price than any others, basically A.N.Other winning what the market thought was a 2 horse race. Similar to the publicity around Cheltenham Gold Cup 2010 - Will it be Kauto Star, or Denman?? Imperial Commander said Hold my beer and watch this :lol:

Regarding In-Running horses reaching 1000, way more chance of that happening. 2 horses way clear in a chase and both fall at the last fence, you can be sure the rest of the field were in the 100's if not 1000 by then. I haven't got a current subscription to ProForm but you can check figures on how many horses hit 1000 IR and go on to win from there.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

Ironically the odds of a commentator making a mistake in the heat of the action should be considerably lower than 1000 - but it doesn't stop gamblers acting on their information and offering 1000.
User avatar
Dublin_Flyer
Posts: 688
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am

Jukebox wrote:
Sat Jul 28, 2018 8:22 pm
Ironically the odds of a commentator making a mistake in the heat of the action should be considerably lower than 1000 - but it doesn't stop gamblers acting on their information and offering 1000.
Dessie Scahill was notorious for doing this on the Irish racing. In his defence there was often 5 or more horses in the JP McManus colours. He commentated on the Irish National this year, 11/30 in Gigginstown colours, what could possibly go wrong?? Nothing, he called a tight finish in bad weather right!
User avatar
Allan R
Posts: 31
Joined: Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:21 am

Thanks for all your replies..
to just check i understand...."IF" u looked at a horses form, and decided it was a loser, so to speak...and u checked with a bookie it was 100/1 to back but when u checked on betfair the odds were 1000/1 to back (the next price was 100/1) but no lay price had arrived in the market at that point...u would back this horse to lay it when the lay price arrived?

am i thinking correctly here, or is it past my bedtime :lol:
thx again
Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

I'm not sure a bookie would necessarily offer as high as 100/1 even if they knew it had only three legs and a hangover.
User avatar
Allan R
Posts: 31
Joined: Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:21 am

Jukebox wrote:
Sat Jul 28, 2018 11:50 pm
I'm not sure a bookie would necessarily offer as high as 100/1 even if they knew it had only three legs and a hangover.
:lol: :lol: :lol:
Post Reply

Return to “Trading Horse racing”