Now after almost 2 years I am still not confident with my progress in trading horse markets.
And I am wondering why?
But it is getting better though. I trade in play and see that my problem is that I can not stick to one or few strategies.
I use one for a week after testing it successfully and then when it stops working for one or two days I get annoyed and look for a new one that works. And it continues like this for a while now. I don't know if it is normal or is it just me that can not settle down or go back to a previous strategy that once worked? Do I have to maybe find the right one that would work constantly or because of the ever changing markets one should always change strategies?
I thought that if one finds an edge or a weak spot in the market one then should employ that constantly but do edges actually stay for a long time or disappear and come up again or do they get lost forever?
I can not just sit there and watch and wait until the market will change and the bot will work again.
For me it is also kind of fun of problem solving in finding new ways and be creative in developing another new bot and see it in action but one part of me is saying that I have to be more confident with a working strategy and give it more time and start slowly scaling up and increase stakes.
Maybe I need to have a selection of strategies and see which one is the right one for the day, week, season or minute?
I would appreciate your comments and thoughts how you deal with this.
Thank you
Changing Strategies
it can be hard to exhibit variance in real time...if you're a human. Certainly a few negative days doesn't mean a strategy doesnt work, same as a few positive days doesn't mean that one does work. You need to back up it works with some sort of evidence, either through data, or letting things run for longer.
Hi Cmuddle,
Seems to me that you are not testing or using your systems for long enough to determine if they are reliable or not.
It all depends on the Variance as sm7med was saying. For instance if you have a strategy with a high Variance then you can only really be sure it works by back testing it for a sufficiently long time. Also if the strategy has a high variance then the fact that you didn't make any money with it for a week isn't significant - you would need to be testing and maybe doing for real for a few months (for instance).
Markets can change and opportunities can dissapear but it don't sound like that is your problem - looks like some of your strategies might just be patterns in noise.
The question is how long do you have to test a system to have a fair confidence that it is reliable. I don't know. I imagine that some googling might help. There must be some formula to give you an idea. There are also mathematical confidence tests which may be useful. Or if not just use all of your data. Actually no don't use all of your data its normal to split your data into two pieces , one to find the system on and one to test the system on.
Check out any articals on data mining.
Sounds like you are having a lot of fun doing the research and got an inquiring puzzle solving mind.. Just add some classical (data mining) methods to your approach and I think you will be fine.
Best of luck
Seems to me that you are not testing or using your systems for long enough to determine if they are reliable or not.
It all depends on the Variance as sm7med was saying. For instance if you have a strategy with a high Variance then you can only really be sure it works by back testing it for a sufficiently long time. Also if the strategy has a high variance then the fact that you didn't make any money with it for a week isn't significant - you would need to be testing and maybe doing for real for a few months (for instance).
Markets can change and opportunities can dissapear but it don't sound like that is your problem - looks like some of your strategies might just be patterns in noise.
The question is how long do you have to test a system to have a fair confidence that it is reliable. I don't know. I imagine that some googling might help. There must be some formula to give you an idea. There are also mathematical confidence tests which may be useful. Or if not just use all of your data. Actually no don't use all of your data its normal to split your data into two pieces , one to find the system on and one to test the system on.
Check out any articals on data mining.
Sounds like you are having a lot of fun doing the research and got an inquiring puzzle solving mind.. Just add some classical (data mining) methods to your approach and I think you will be fine.
Best of luck
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
There was a couple of simple excel things mentioned in this thread ...viewtopic.php?f=17&t=16547&hilit=steyx
As far as data processing and excel are concerned, I'm positively evangelical about Udemy at the moment. For the price of one bad trade (or half a bad trade!) you can have access to some really great online learning. And imo it's also not a bad thing sometimes to step away from BA for a week or two to re-think your whole approach or to build some core skills. There seems to be something for everyone on Udemy, from fairly basic excel stuff and data analysis, to things that are beyond me (only at the moment though) like machine learning, deep learning, ai & neural networks.
What I recognise from the forum is that the really sucessful guys (ie the ones who don't post much) don't just like a bit of sport and then play around in BA, they graft. When they trade it's like sinking a 20 footer on the 18th green, all the work has been done on the practice green, hour after hour, unpaid, often dull and boring. You aren't going to collect the trophy and kiss the dolly bird just by rocking up and whacking the ball around.
I signed up for the C# beginners course last week, 12 quid and about 18hrs later (i already knew VB) it's tick, job done and I'm just about to start the Intermediate course when I've done typing this. Next week that will get a tick and I'll go from 'I wish I knew', to 'I know'. You could do the same with Excel I'm sure and I think you'll feel quite empowered.
It won't be easy, or exciting, but get over that, this work afterall not playtime. Watching sport in your pants while your PC acts like an ATM is the prize, not the route to the prize.
As far as data processing and excel are concerned, I'm positively evangelical about Udemy at the moment. For the price of one bad trade (or half a bad trade!) you can have access to some really great online learning. And imo it's also not a bad thing sometimes to step away from BA for a week or two to re-think your whole approach or to build some core skills. There seems to be something for everyone on Udemy, from fairly basic excel stuff and data analysis, to things that are beyond me (only at the moment though) like machine learning, deep learning, ai & neural networks.
What I recognise from the forum is that the really sucessful guys (ie the ones who don't post much) don't just like a bit of sport and then play around in BA, they graft. When they trade it's like sinking a 20 footer on the 18th green, all the work has been done on the practice green, hour after hour, unpaid, often dull and boring. You aren't going to collect the trophy and kiss the dolly bird just by rocking up and whacking the ball around.
I signed up for the C# beginners course last week, 12 quid and about 18hrs later (i already knew VB) it's tick, job done and I'm just about to start the Intermediate course when I've done typing this. Next week that will get a tick and I'll go from 'I wish I knew', to 'I know'. You could do the same with Excel I'm sure and I think you'll feel quite empowered.
It won't be easy, or exciting, but get over that, this work afterall not playtime. Watching sport in your pants while your PC acts like an ATM is the prize, not the route to the prize.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
https://www.udemy.com/courses/search/?q=excel&src=ukw 
There's one on there rather ambitiously titled "Excel Beginner to Expert in 6hrs" (83 lectures).
This time tomorrow or this time next week, you could be posting grins rather than rolled eyes when the subject comes up
There's one on there rather ambitiously titled "Excel Beginner to Expert in 6hrs" (83 lectures).
This time tomorrow or this time next week, you could be posting grins rather than rolled eyes when the subject comes up
Been there - sharp pin and the Racing Post has about as much idea as they seem to have for discovering meaningful choices with horse racingShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:49 pmthings that are beyond me (only at the moment though) like machine learning, deep learning, ai & neural networks.
Then again I've almost certainly been feeding them irrelevant data that doesn't have anything to do with outcomes
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
foxwood wrote: ↑Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:15 pmBeen there - sharp pin and the Racing Post has about as much idea as they seem to have for discovering meaningful choices with horse racingShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:49 pmthings that are beyond me (only at the moment though) like machine learning, deep learning, ai & neural networks.
Then again I've almost certainly been feeding them irrelevant data that doesn't have anything to do with outcomes
In that case it's plan B.....You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
I trade UK flat racing inplay, last stages, without video and I must say that day and evening trading is not the same: day trading is terrible (except Friday, Friday is awesome). And there are some good and awful venues.cmuddle wrote: ↑Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:21 pmNow after almost 2 years I am still not confident with my progress in trading horse markets.
And I am wondering why?
But it is getting better though. I trade in play and see that my problem is that I can not stick to one or few strategies.
I use one for a week after testing it successfully and then when it stops working for one or two days I get annoyed and look for a new one that works. And it continues like this for a while now. I don't know if it is normal or is it just me that can not settle down or go back to a previous strategy that once worked? Do I have to maybe find the right one that would work constantly or because of the ever changing markets one should always change strategies?
I thought that if one finds an edge or a weak spot in the market one then should employ that constantly but do edges actually stay for a long time or disappear and come up again or do they get lost forever?
I can not just sit there and watch and wait until the market will change and the bot will work again.
For me it is also kind of fun of problem solving in finding new ways and be creative in developing another new bot and see it in action but one part of me is saying that I have to be more confident with a working strategy and give it more time and start slowly scaling up and increase stakes.
Maybe I need to have a selection of strategies and see which one is the right one for the day, week, season or minute?
I would appreciate your comments and thoughts how you deal with this.
Thank you
So, yes, you should be specific. But you'll never know if you are not consistent and don't analyze carefully your PL.
How can you tolerate those awful C# method's bracketsShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:49 pmThere was a couple of simple excel things mentioned in this thread ...viewtopic.php?f=17&t=16547&hilit=steyx
I signed up for the C# beginners course last week, 12 quid and about 18hrs later (i already knew VB)
. VB.net so nice and clean.