Hi all,
I've had betangel for a while now, started well last year. Moved away from it then recently returned. Looking for any advice on how to read the race from 10 - 20 minutes out. When I do make a profit it often feels like I got lucky with the way the odds went rather than it actually being a concious decision on my part.
Any pointers would be much appreciated.
Luck or Judgement
Welcome to the forum Gazstoke. 
If you bet 11/10 on the toss of a coin, it's still pure luck whether you win but in the long run a profit would be guaranteed.
It's harder to tell with trading, a single winning trade could be lucky, and equally, a single losing trade could be bad luck. But over a reasonable period of time if you're in profit it can't be down to luck - you have an edge.
You should always have a concious reason for opening a trade. I'm sometimes guilty of breaking that rule. When I'm trading for a few hours my brain goes on autopilot, and when a trade goes against me I sometimes think "what the f**k did I do that for - I should have seen that coming", but ideally you should be able to briefly tell yourself why you think a trade is a good idea.
I used to be an early trader (30 minutes out) but I find these days the money comes later than it used to, sometimes in the last five minutes.The markets can be quite inactive 20 minutes out and if you open a trade it can be a struggle just to grab a one or two tick profit until the last 10 minutes when the prices start moving.
If you bet 11/10 on the toss of a coin, it's still pure luck whether you win but in the long run a profit would be guaranteed.
It's harder to tell with trading, a single winning trade could be lucky, and equally, a single losing trade could be bad luck. But over a reasonable period of time if you're in profit it can't be down to luck - you have an edge.
You should always have a concious reason for opening a trade. I'm sometimes guilty of breaking that rule. When I'm trading for a few hours my brain goes on autopilot, and when a trade goes against me I sometimes think "what the f**k did I do that for - I should have seen that coming", but ideally you should be able to briefly tell yourself why you think a trade is a good idea.
I used to be an early trader (30 minutes out) but I find these days the money comes later than it used to, sometimes in the last five minutes.The markets can be quite inactive 20 minutes out and if you open a trade it can be a struggle just to grab a one or two tick profit until the last 10 minutes when the prices start moving.
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iambic_pentameter
- Posts: 443
- Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm
You also need to consider the money arriving once the previous race has finished - this can sometimes change things.
Thanks Jukebox. I've tended to focus more on in-running trading. However in answer to the first question how to learn to read what's happening in the first 15 - 20 minutes of a market: my advice is that experience will be the greatest teacher. Also to watch as any of the excellent videos on youtuube. Initially it may very well be luck when you get it right however as you practice more and more you may well start to see subtle clues that may guide you in the right direction.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Just opinion, and not necesarily right but .....
Cold ladder trading is a strange breast. Throw all the super computer anaysis & Ai & machine learning at it and it's slim pickings. Watch a few thousand markets and it 'alledgedly' becomes crystal clear. The congnative dissonance you're continually faced with is that, "If the answers are on the screen in front of me, then why am I sitting here instead of just modelling it by AI and trading it by algorhithm".
It's easy to be fooled though, by having an opinion on a direction, that actually occuring, and then attributing that move to the parameters you were considering. If that happens enough times you become a victim of confirmation bias and then when it stops happening, anchoring bias takes over. It's a potential minefield. Knowing why you were right or wrong is much harder to explain than it might at first appear to be.
At this stage imo there might be something to be learnt by focusing on how you handle your position once it's open, rather than concocting a magic prediction formula based on all manner of esoteric metrics. Trade blind and you'll theoretically breakeven(?), so open blind and just try and make 55% on the ups and -45% on the downs?
That's easier said than done though when the logic you need for closing a trade, is essentially the reverse of the logic you needed to open it in the first place! People focus on strategising about when to open or when to close, when in fact that mental process needs to be happening almost everytime your screen refreshes. If you were writing a system to trade ladders, then it would need to do that?
I wish you well but don't expect to be able to do this soon, or even at all. That easy 50 quid you see someone make on youtube isn't just a case of see A and do Z as it might appear. It also needs an understanding of B, C, D, & E in varying amounts, and that's what we're all trying to do, day in & day out 16/7, panning for gold. ....it's been a long week
Cold ladder trading is a strange breast. Throw all the super computer anaysis & Ai & machine learning at it and it's slim pickings. Watch a few thousand markets and it 'alledgedly' becomes crystal clear. The congnative dissonance you're continually faced with is that, "If the answers are on the screen in front of me, then why am I sitting here instead of just modelling it by AI and trading it by algorhithm".
It's easy to be fooled though, by having an opinion on a direction, that actually occuring, and then attributing that move to the parameters you were considering. If that happens enough times you become a victim of confirmation bias and then when it stops happening, anchoring bias takes over. It's a potential minefield. Knowing why you were right or wrong is much harder to explain than it might at first appear to be.
At this stage imo there might be something to be learnt by focusing on how you handle your position once it's open, rather than concocting a magic prediction formula based on all manner of esoteric metrics. Trade blind and you'll theoretically breakeven(?), so open blind and just try and make 55% on the ups and -45% on the downs?
That's easier said than done though when the logic you need for closing a trade, is essentially the reverse of the logic you needed to open it in the first place! People focus on strategising about when to open or when to close, when in fact that mental process needs to be happening almost everytime your screen refreshes. If you were writing a system to trade ladders, then it would need to do that?
I wish you well but don't expect to be able to do this soon, or even at all. That easy 50 quid you see someone make on youtube isn't just a case of see A and do Z as it might appear. It also needs an understanding of B, C, D, & E in varying amounts, and that's what we're all trying to do, day in & day out 16/7, panning for gold. ....it's been a long week
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
We need a confirmed & backtested subtle clues thread.
But maybe those subtle clues are just the echo/shadow of the bigger and better actual clues...as I said, it's been a long week and I appear to have created as many circular references in my mind as I have on my worksheets
