Bookies odds and support / resistance

The sport of kings.
StellaBot
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Assessing the eg horse ability would be a starting point.
But having those would show price variants.
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ruthlessimon
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Johnedale wrote:
Sat Jul 28, 2018 4:03 pm
In markets with higher liquidity and widely available TV coverage would you expect there to be a higher ratio of regular punters to traders, and therefore bookies odds would play a greater role?
I've knocked this up super quickly, & I'll be the 1st to admit I'm not entirely sure (don't have a clue! ;) ) what it's showing

Image

Image

They were calced by taking: The June 2.xx shorties, sorting em by volume @ 5mins - then taking the top 50 (high volume) & the bottom 50 (low volume) as the samples

X-axis = Count
Y-axis = Each price point

Blue: the fav had high volume @ 5mins
Orange: the fav had low volume @ 5mins

.. Sometimes it's correlated sometimes it's not :? :?
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ShaunWhite
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I've seen this pattern several times this week or so it seems.
Untitled.png
Someone's been a bit too keen to get on and should have waited.

Big lay spikes can trigger drifts, it look slike big back spikes are sometimes doing the same which is bizzare.

Some nice examples of looking at 3.0, 3.25, 3.5 & 3.75 for the OP.

..and also a Mean Reversion example for Simon :) 3 -> 3.65ish -> 3.25ish
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Jul 28, 2018 5:48 pm
..and also a Mean Reversion example for Simon :) 3 -> 3.65ish -> 3.25ish
I've proven why "trading definitions" are a minefield :D

.. Or 2.5 -> 3.65 -> 2.5

A scalper (or better a bot) could anticipate an overshoot, & if the overround hit 100%, be an extra confluence for taking a quick tick
arbitrage16
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Jul 28, 2018 5:48 pm


Big lay spikes can trigger drifts, it look slike big back spikes are sometimes doing the same which is bizzare.

Is the only way to deduce whether this is back/lay bet by actually watching the market and seeing at which price the order comes in?
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ShaunWhite
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I'm talking big as in it's enough to move the price. You can see it on the price chart.
arbitrage16
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Actually, you made the distinction in your original post that big lays AND big backs caused market drifts, hence my question which your follow up post kind of misses the point of :)
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ruthlessimon
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Yeah come on Shaun watcha tryin' to say? ;)

A big back bet is just as likely to be a signal of a reversal.. but also provides amazing value to a layer (i.e. pullback i.e. your chart)??

Which then begs the question - why use volume at all if it's a 50/50 call?
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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Sun Jul 29, 2018 5:08 pm
Yeah come on Shaun watcha tryin' to say? ;)

A big back bet is just as likely to be a signal of a reversal.. but also provides amazing value to a layer (i.e. pullback i.e. your chart)??

Which then begs the question - why use volume at all if it's a 50/50 call?
I wasn't saying it was just as likely, I was saying that one was bizzare.
Again it's about terminology, I'd see a pull back on that chart as going back to 3.25 from 3. Not a massive drift to a new high.
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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Sun Jul 29, 2018 5:08 pm
Which then begs the question - why use volume at all if it's a 50/50 call?
Any old 'Volume' might is 50/50, I've not checked. But if you know what side it was on it's not 50/50.
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Jul 29, 2018 5:26 pm
Any old 'Volume' might is 50/50, I've not checked. But if you know what side it was on it's not 50/50.
That's a bold statement! I reckon you're right, but without extra context (i.e. defining "big"), it'll be slim

Tell ya what, you've made it my Sunday night focus :)
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