Bookies odds and support / resistance

[StellaBot]

Not sure there Shaun
I would be looking more at their overound also
and factoring that in
So eg if 10/1 with 120% overound
Is that 8/1?
Is the 8/1 pure maths or does it matter?
Dunno if that makes a diff.

[StellaBot]

Im also sure
There are ways to look at this if eg
My post regarding data capture is answered

[ShaunWhite]

It's just a guide.

btw the overround, it's spread over all the selections, so a 140% on a 10 horses is about on 4% each. Noise in the market is more than that usually.
I know lots of ex-bookies will pop up to explain that it's different for favs and a book is never perfectly balanced, but as a rough rule of thumb it's not far off.

It's why backing individual horses on the exchange at 100%, doesn't give you a 40% better return than the bookies, if only, but dutching all runners does.
The fewer the number of runners the more the overround affects each one.

...well that's how I understand it anyway.

[Johnedale]

It's difficult, because let's say the low is consistently 2.46, is that a hold of 6/4?

..Or is it a hold of 2.46

In markets with higher liquidity and widely available TV coverage would you expect there to be a higher ratio of regular punters to traders, and therefore bookies odds would play a greater role? Are there other factors you could use to estimate this, for instance if the price had lingered around the next fractional odds up the list on its way down to 2.46? As others have said, I know nothing is set in stone and you would need other indicators as well.

[ruthlessimon]

Devil's advocate incoming

Understanding how punters think is key to trading imo. So is your average guy in street going to want to back something down to 2.5 or to 2.412754 ? And if they're old school or not especially bright, (ie most punters), then they'll be thinking in terms of what they're used to & can work out easily, 6/4, 7/4, 4/5 etc.

Wouldn't that make it "current fair value"; not "support/resistance"?

That's the irony I've always thought when it comes to S&R levels - a proper S/R level will hardly do any volume

[to75ne]

learn to trade first then when (if you do) then worry about nuances in the differences between fractional and decimal odds.

[StellaBot]

Here is an example bookies with 10% overound odds v betfair 5% commision odds
Maybe Shaun can now show the true support and resistance.


21 17.50
16 13.33
14 11.67
12 10.00
10 8.33
9 7.50
8.5 7.08
8 6.67
7.5 6.25
7 5.83
6.5 5.42
6 5.00

[ShaunWhite]

Devil's advocate incoming
Wouldn't that make it "current fair value"; not "support/resistance"?

What's the difference?
Isn't support/resistance just the limit of what people consider to be fair value?

[ruthlessimon]

In markets with higher liquidity and widely available TV coverage would you expect there to be a higher ratio of regular punters to traders, and therefore bookies odds would play a greater role?

That's a decent shout - & certainly testable. I'll have a quick look at this on the June shorties & post up the findings

[spreadbetting]

I'd be surprised if you find any reliable formula between bookies odds and betfair odds there are too many variables to go into and the bookies are more inclined to follow Betfair odds than the other way round so there's little point in worrying about them. A 5/1 shot at the bookies can happily trade at a steady 6 to 12 depending on the course. Bookies will generally bet to between 1-2% a runner but that overround isn't evenly spread when translated to exchange odds as their liabilities aren't spread the same.

[ruthlessimon]

What's the difference?
Isn't support/resistance just the limit of what people consider to be fair value?

This was the 15:50 - & I'd call 2.46 the resistance level, not 2.5. & interestingly the number 2.46 crops up a lot



Caveat: - You can't just assume price always returns to fair value, markets are simply way more complicated!

[ShaunWhite]

Maybe Shaun can now show the true support and resistance.

Or maybe he can't really be bothered

I was only going to have a quick look at the forum, I finished my week at about 6am this morning so it's not someting I want to get hugely involved in on a day off.

The OP asked a question, I gave him my opinion. If you agree then fine, if you don't, then fine. I don't really mind either way.

[Dallas]

I'd tend to view them more as 'Sticking' points until I see some decent traded volume build at them

[ShaunWhite]

What's the difference?
Isn't support/resistance just the limit of what people consider to be fair value?

This was the 15:50 - & I'd call 2.46 the resistance level, not 2.5. & interestingly the number 2.46 crops up a lot

If you're talking swings then I'd call that the abolute textbook example of 2.5 support. The slight noise is perfectly centered around peak vol at 2.5.

2.52-2.46 as a scalping range sup/res maybe, but in terms of swings, that's 2.5 all day long.

2.46? narrr that's just a few overexcited punters prepared to take a bit less than most people.

[ruthlessimon]

Or maybe he can't really be bothered

I finished my week at about 6am this morning so it's not someting I want to get hugely involved in on a day off.

Day off??

The market never sleeps!