A bit of reassurance.... please

The sport of kings.
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cookyweb
Posts: 70
Joined: Sun Apr 29, 2018 5:00 pm

Hi all,

I’ve been trading the pre race horse markets for around 8 months now, but I’m getting a little frustrated.

I’m going through a phase now (which I’ve done many times) where I feel like I’m on completely the wrong track.

When I feel like that I hit the forums and YouTube and the information makes me feel worse lol

When people talk about an edge, and trading without an edge is silly, what does that mean? I don’t feel like I have an edge as such, I just try to read the market and get an understanding of where the prices are going... but is that an edge, or should I be looking for something in particular, a set of circumstances as such?

I tend to focus mainly on trying to spot a weak horse that will drift as I seem better at that.

There’s sooo many posts where newbies ask about edges, I feel like I’ve read them all, but I just feel a little lost at the moment

Any help is hugely appreciated

Cookyweb
Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

cookyweb wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:15 pm
Hi all,
I don’t feel like I have an edge as such, I just try to read the market and get an understanding of where the prices are going... but is that an edge
It might be an edge if your "reading" and "understanding" means you can determine where a price is going correctly often enough and act on it in time. After eight months of watching the markets it can't be a complete mystery.

Do some record keeping

Are you measuring yourself in any way? Are you getting better?

You say you're better at spotting a horse that will drift - so you must think you have recognized some signs- why not make that your edge - become one of the best at spotting them. Check your progress. If you are better than random you have an edge.
cookyweb
Posts: 70
Joined: Sun Apr 29, 2018 5:00 pm

Thank you very much for the reply, I’ve been poor at record keeping so I really need to do that.

And try to see how well I do and if I do better in certain race types?

I do really well, for example I went 2 weeks without a single losing day, but when I had a losing day I just couldn’t win a single trade, it’s like I’d lost the plot lol
And I’ve not really recovered since then, I’ve sort of lost my way a bit

Maybe a short break and then go again with record keeping is all I need
Thank you again for your help
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Take comfort in knowing that there are hundreds, possibly thousands of trader's in exactly the same position. I don't know anyone, myself included, who hasn't at some point questioned whether it's possible to succeed (includes Peter).

I'm of the opinion that "market reading" is a synergy of lots of minor quantitative edges. If something is truly significant it shouldn't be too hard to spot in some basic data. IMO anyone struggling to build "discretionary intuition" needs to get into data asap. I was in exactly the same position, & for me, it allows me to the big picture - & also allows me to quickly test ideas I spot either in the market/videos/forum (as you mention).

For example, Iambic recently was talking about whether it's better to hold/cut after a big spike. That's the type of "edge seed" I look for. "Hmm, I wonder what I should do after a spike?". Into the spreadsheets I go. If you're lucky, sometimes it'll fractal into something interesting/unique. But ideally, you need a trading partner around your level/better - someone impartial to your style of analysis who can offer their own opinion & potentially spot an error you've missed. So easy to get too excited, & then realise you've used "dodgy pseudoy practices".
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

cookyweb wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:15 pm
Hi all,

I’ve been trading the pre race horse markets for around 8 months now, but I’m getting a little frustrated.

I’m going through a phase now (which I’ve done many times) where I feel like I’m on completely the wrong track.

When I feel like that I hit the forums and YouTube and the information makes me feel worse lol

When people talk about an edge, and trading without an edge is silly, what does that mean? I don’t feel like I have an edge as such, I just try to read the market and get an understanding of where the prices are going... but is that an edge, or should I be looking for something in particular, a set of circumstances as such?

I tend to focus mainly on trying to spot a weak horse that will drift as I seem better at that.

There’s sooo many posts where newbies ask about edges, I feel like I’ve read them all, but I just feel a little lost at the moment

Any help is hugely appreciated

Cookyweb
Hi,

I went through a very similar patch once. Found myself feeling exactly how you felt. If you have got to this stage it means your very determined which is good. Well done for making it. That’s not patronising but genuine.

I hit this spot and it felt like I knew too much about the markets and at times felt like every video, book or advice was contradicting.

First, I think your struggling with your edge issues because at the moment there is so much which is over ridding your brain. Whilst your still learning and improving your actually multi tasking on a level on which you haven’t learned.

Heres an example: for the first 18 months I was trading, I would look at the today’s racing topic on this forum and I would notice how people were saying how there we’re a bias on that particular day. For example every fav was drifting. However although I traded them all, i didn’t even notice that. This was because i wasn’t “trained” mentally.

It’s going to take some time to find your edge. When people use that word people think it’s a system of such.

My edge is the fact I lose as little as possible. Defensive. Eventually the more you trade your start to see likely scenarios. Managing yourself in that moment is your edge.

Defensive, defensive, defensive.

All these market indicators, graphs etc are going to take a lot of time to become second nature.

Do you drive?

On the day you got your driving licence. Would you have been able to blast the music, smoke a ciggy at the same time. Possibly but the focus would have been needed.

It’s similar for you.

If your serious about it. Work on being defenisve.

I.e try not to lose money first than work forwards.

Hope it helps.
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

If you were a robot.. with zero emotions.

The edge to overcome on betfair is so tiny that from 100 trades 52 profitable trades would be enough to profit. Assuming you lost the same as you won.

Think about that...

If you see a horse that has been steaming heavily.. you could argue that it has 55% chance of steaming right? That’s enough of an edge to be profitable.

All theses systems etc... you don’t even have to be a very good market reader to make it pay. Just lose less than you win.

Once you get there... than concentrate on getting more out of your wins. Letting you winning trades move. Don’t take profits too quick.

Mentality and taking care of your bank and your open trades is what every new trader should concentrate on.
You can never stop learning about an everloutionary market, so why would you want to know the edge.

Trying trading with the intention of not losing money.

Open trades on the thought that, you will not allow your position to get behind. Practise scratching your trade.
Don’t allow yourself to get in any silly position. Test a few days and see where your at. Ignore everything else. See what happens.

It’s not easy will take some time.
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Derek27
Posts: 23471
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

cookyweb wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:17 pm
I’ve been poor at record keeping so I really need to do that.
Keeping full and accurate accounts of your trading is absolutely crucial to trading.
cookyweb
Posts: 70
Joined: Sun Apr 29, 2018 5:00 pm

Thank you for the replies, such brilliant advice as always, I’m going to try to take this onboard when I start again next week.

Cookyweb
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brimson25
Posts: 504
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

There's loads of really good advice - it's really nice that people are so often helpful here!

(By contrast, on many poker forums, a similar post would have led to an orgy of "you're losing because you're not as clever as me" responses.
iambic_pentameter
Posts: 443
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm

OP - I purchased a course from another trader a few years back and he said that the pre-off racing markets are the toughest to crack and in his opinion, it takes around 3 market cycles to really understand what is happening. At the time, I thought this was a bit extreme but I'm at month 27 on my journey and I agree with that statement 100%.

As well as understanding the markets, you also have to be able to use the software correctly, have excellent money management and risk management skills. And this is before you factor in the hardest battle of all- the one that goes on between your ears.

I think about it like this:


A sports trader who is experienced and at the top of their game can earn the sort of money that professionals like accountants, solicitors or doctors earn. We all know that all of these professionals have to put in a lot of hours before they become experts in their fields so why should sports trading be any different?

It is a tough, lonely road to go down but you only have to look at some of the brilliant minds on this forum to see that it is possible.

Enjoy your journey and just take it a day at a time.

Iambic
mickypaul72
Posts: 115
Joined: Tue May 15, 2018 1:52 pm

Hi I know the feeling but my trouble is with bots and finding one that delivers consistant profits I find it hugely frustrating, I will have a good day when everthing falls in place and then the next day it will smack me in the teeth. I'm actually on the verge of packing it in but i've gone so far that it would be a shame to do that. Good Luck.
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jimibt
Posts: 3641
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

mickypaul72 wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:43 pm
Hi I know the feeling but my trouble is with bots and finding one that delivers consistant profits I find it hugely frustrating, I will have a good day when everthing falls in place and then the next day it will smack me in the teeth. I'm actually on the verge of packing it in but i've gone so far that it would be a shame to do that. Good Luck.
micky -you may find that the days that your bots don't do so good is down to some very simple factors:

1. The course(s) on the BAD day may not suit your rule (stats will back up or disprove this)
2. Weather affects the race outcome tremendously - i.e both the going and a horses temprement to extremes of heat or cold
3. Race distance and field size (as well as course) can play havoc with a rule that did really well the previous day

In short, by keeping accurate records/snapshots of your trades, as well as having solid historical data to refer back to, you might just be able to track down the anomalies of a succesful day vs a poor day. The difference between a bad day without filters vs a bad day with filters added may amount to dropping 50% of the races but at the same time, losing only 1 or 2 points over the day.

[edit] - don't know how long you've been doing this and am only guided by your BA forum signup date. I'd suggest that you allow yourself a minimum of 12-15 months to really get to grips in a manner that becomes intuitive. that goes for the generation of succesful bots as much as for manual pre-trading.
JTEDL
Posts: 536
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:21 pm

I need ' a bit of reassurance' today - that Betfair won't crash!
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gutuami
Posts: 1858
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 4:06 pm

JTEDL wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:33 pm
I need ' a bit of reassurance' today - that Betfair won't crash!
if there was a market for it I would've offered you a lay bet for that. depends on the price of course.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

mickypaul72 wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:43 pm
Hi I know the feeling but my trouble is with bots and finding one that delivers consistant profits I find it hugely frustrating, I will have a good day when everthing falls in place and then the next day it will smack me in the teeth. I'm actually on the verge of packing it in but i've gone so far that it would be a shame to do that. Good Luck.
Too many people set up bots just because they've dug thru some stats and found something that's won in the past, to win long term you need to understand the reason why something should be winning. Once you know why it should win you'll understand why it's losing also , it may simply be long term there's just no edge to what you're doing.

Don't simply trawl thru more stats in the hope you can turn a losing idea into a winning one because you'll always be able to backfit something that used to win. By all means use stats to prove or disprove something you think should work but don't simply look thru the stats to find your 'winning' strategy blind.
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