+1 for seasonal variations - and variations within season ie start / middle / end are all a bit different as the market works out what this season's runners are likeDublin_Flyer wrote: ↑Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:37 pmHave you re-ran and included the orange line including the bad races to see was the recent flat line an arbitrary/seasonal fvck up? This month and next month are notorious for weird results with the changeover from flat to NH and likewise in April/May from NH to flat.
5500 races is only about 3 or 3.5 months because of summer racing quantities, could be worth running it a good while longer to see if the present streak is a seasonal change/aberration. The last 250 or so downhill streak only equates to about a 7 or 8 day period when there's 35-45 races daily, everyone has a bad week, prior to the last week it's growth was significant for the number of races involved.
I'm of the view that backfitting your system if you have a logical reason to do so is ok, it's when you start superbackfitting that it screws up.
+1 backfitting ok - all prediction is based on historical lessons - unless you are a seer