2000 Guineas 2019

The sport of kings.
Halliday
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Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:40 pm

bobs71 wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:32 pm
That’s the way Ballydoyle/ Coolmore race there horses,



How many times has the perceived number one O’Brien horse been beaten by a lesser fancied one ?
Regarding O'Brien's record with horses where he has multi-entries (2 or more runners in a race) the following shows his record since 2011 with all runners in such races and filtered by Favoritism status & also Market Rank (SP) - along with various Betfair market metrics -Non Favourites as a group win around 10% but of course varies with position in the market AOB24.PNG

I would not specifically say that O'Brien campaigns his horses as you suggest , although does have higher race frequencies than say Gosden or Haggas
The following shows his average seasonal race frequency for 2yos and 3yos since 2011 - along with % figures of 5 runs and over for a 2yo and 6 runs and over for a 3yo AOB25.PNG
[/quote]

Interesting stats .. One thing I would say is that they way certain types of horses are campaigned now is totally different from say 2011, and his use of racing aids has changed significantly as well . There was an interesting article ( among many ) by Kevin Blake re use of the tongue tie by O’ Brien
Between 2009 and 2013 he only used it once .. Yet between 2014 and 2016 he used it 82 times resulting in 14 winning when first used .

And Coolmore have stated that they campaign there horses more aggressively than previously as they don’t want “false “ horses going to stud .

And again if you compared this years stats with last year you would come up with significantly different results in many areas .. no of group wins , strike rate in UK etc ... due in part to periods when his horses just weren’t 100%

Like with all stats it’s how you interpret them and how deep you dig .
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

bobs71 wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:50 pm
Seahorse - a few days ago i had "thought" i had sent you a large message on sectional / time data regarding Ten Sovereigns as requested - and now realise that i did not press send FFS :oops: - will get it to you later on pal. Very interesting horse.
No worries. I look forward to it.
bobs71
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:22 pm

Halliday wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:54 pm
bobs71 wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:32 pm
That’s the way Ballydoyle/ Coolmore race there horses,



How many times has the perceived number one O’Brien horse been beaten by a lesser fancied one ?
Regarding O'Brien's record with horses where he has multi-entries (2 or more runners in a race) the following shows his record since 2011 with all runners in such races and filtered by Favoritism status & also Market Rank (SP) - along with various Betfair market metrics -Non Favourites as a group win around 10% but of course varies with position in the market AOB24.PNG

I would not specifically say that O'Brien campaigns his horses as you suggest , although does have higher race frequencies than say Gosden or Haggas
The following shows his average seasonal race frequency for 2yos and 3yos since 2011 - along with % figures of 5 runs and over for a 2yo and 6 runs and over for a 3yo AOB25.PNG
Interesting stats .. One thing I would say is that they way certain types of horses are campaigned now is totally different from say 2011, and his use of racing aids has changed significantly as well . There was an interesting article ( among many ) by Kevin Blake re use of the tongue tie by O’ Brien
Between 2009 and 2013 he only used it once .. Yet between 2014 and 2016 he used it 82 times resulting in 14 winning when first used .

And Coolmore have stated that they campaign there horses more aggressively than previously as they don’t want “false “ horses going to stud .

And again if you compared this years stats with last year you would come up with significantly different results in many areas .. no of group wins , strike rate in UK etc ... due in part to periods when his horses just weren’t 100%

Like with all stats it’s how you interpret them and how deep you dig .
[/quote]

Certainly don't disagree with you mate regarding stats , although his average/ % of runners within the variables (seasonal runs) were pretty even when i checked year by year , with no noticeable spike - one area where there certainly is - is his total % of group/listed runners to total runners - 54% of all his runners this year have been in these contests , while it sat at 53% last year - increase last two years , which is probably due to volume and the ability range becoming tighter and tighter of the average runner due to better breeding practise - knock on effect of this is a bigger % of runners sent to contest in the UK and also the multi entry tactics per race increasing(have used 3+ runners per race) - Nearly 58% of all his runners this year in group/listed races have been in a race with at least another two stable runners.
AOB By Year - GroupListed.PNG
AOB2.PNG
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bobs71
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:22 pm

Interesting stats .. One thing I would say is that they way certain types of horses are campaigned now is totally different from say 2011, and his use of racing aids has changed significantly as well . There was an interesting article ( among many ) by Kevin Blake re use of the tongue tie by O’ Brien
Between 2009 and 2013 he only used it once .. Yet between 2014 and 2016 he used it 82 times resulting in 14 winning when first used .


[/quote]

Interesting stuff regarding the TT - my data ties in with Blake's findings , although i also used O'Brien's NH Runners in said period (only a small sample of 66 runs)- Noticed he has a decent record with horses wearing the TT on the third run - W% ~30% , smallish roi to BFSP overall - and showed breakdown by year with this - also the pattern here , 2nd run better than 1st run , 3rd run better than 2nd , win% wise is similar to his record with maidens overall and generally repeats year after year up to the 3rd run
A O Brien TT.PNG
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bobs71
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Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:22 pm

Seahorse - Ten Sovs - now NR from the Dewhurst on Saturday
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
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bobs71 wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:17 pm
Seahorse - Ten Sovs - now NR from the Dewhurst on Saturday
:oops:

Let’s hope for my sake he runs in the Guineas.
elofan0
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

well if Ten sovereigns runs in the guineas it could possibly be a good arb on the day for those who backed 8/1 :D
elofan0
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

a few of ten sovereigns rivals for the 2019 2000 guineas run today lets see how this alters the guineas betting :)
Last edited by elofan0 on Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SeaHorseRacing
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I like Advertise today. No bet for me in the race but that’s my opinion.
elofan0
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

well i thought too darn hot would win the race he put daylight in the last furlong from his rivals but races a little too far off the pace for my liking and takes time to get into top gear

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AZ5zTPyWVo
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SeaHorseRacing
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SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:54 pm
TEN SOVEREIGNS.

7/1 currently for 2000 Guineas. Think he’s special.

Not antipost fav... we’ll yet.
Wrote that on 23rd September last year. Looking a cracking bet now 💪💪

I know a couple of you put a few quid on. Are you trading it out or letting it run?

Just needs to win now please as I’m a greedy git.
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