Data Fluctuation on sample

The sport of kings.
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foxwood
Posts: 390
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:54 pm

jimibt wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:51 am
I actually wondered if it was due to the courses being overly hard due to the lack of rain in August
That was first thought on seeing the graph in the OP and laughed when saw that post afterwards.

Have a look at splitting out graphs for Flat / NH / AWT - maybe that will help diagnose if is going related.

Graph looks very tight to trend to me - certainly one to run with a fair bit harder than you seem to be if the bank will take it.

Don't be scared of the dips - consider longest losing PL and depth ie from first loss to recovering back to same point - bank has to be able to cover at least that to get back on trend at any time - that is of course if its going to go back up ;)
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jimibt
Posts: 3641
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

foxwood wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:28 pm
jimibt wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:51 am
I actually wondered if it was due to the courses being overly hard due to the lack of rain in August
That was first thought on seeing the graph in the OP and laughed when saw that post afterwards.

Have a look at splitting out graphs for Flat / NH / AWT - maybe that will help diagnose if is going related.

Graph looks very tight to trend to me - certainly one to run with a fair bit harder than you seem to be if the bank will take it.

Don't be scared of the dips - consider longest losing PL and depth ie from first loss to recovering back to same point - bank has to be able to cover at least that to get back on trend at any time - that is of course if its going to go back up ;)
well, today was one of the 3 in a row losing days -lol. but this is obviously a great test to see if the averages are maintained. and yes, i agree that i should have ramped it up around the 24th day, but happy to spin it out on min stakes and compare to actuals, just to be certain that criteria is sound and selections are consistent with BF historical selections. next phase is the slow ramping up and will bear in mind your points regards allowing for the dip AND recovery, as opposed to just spinning out of the dip!! very good point.

thanks for inputs from all, will keep you posted on progress and feel free to ping further observations... as and when!!
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