Winning Price stats

[ruthlessimon]

Looked at generically, sure, BFSP is fair.

But if SP was fair, I shouldn't see a table like this - everything should be 0%

God how I wish Mr. Butler was still around

[ruthlessimon]

Something else that has fascinated me, is BFSP even special? Is it better than 01:37 etc

[Atho55]

I struggle to see the value of constructing an IP based upon the result of a mechanism set up to settle bets or so it appears.

https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/FAQ ... kings.html

[spreadbetting]

Something else that has fascinated me, is BFSP even special? Is it better than 01:37 etc

Depends on your idea of special , 01:37 might not be much use to a trader wanting some kind of insurance his closing bet will be matched at the off if he hasn't managed to get closed beforehand, BFSP may be. For a gambler 01:37 may well offer a better price on the winner.

If we take BSP and 01:37 as a whole, both are likely to be returning to a 101% book so theoretically they'd be no advantage pricewise of taking one over the other.

[ShaunWhite]

Looked at generically, sure, BFSP is fair.

But if SP was fair, I shouldn't see a table like this - everything should be 0%

They would all be zero (ish) on a large enough sample? If there were specific points of value that were so easy to find, somebody would be taking them and the price would be affected. Remember even Mr king of the manual traders runs multiple servers (7+) all keeping everything in check. Btw How many horses are on each of those chart price points? I'm guessing the middle section which is iro zero gain represent more runners than the outlying ones. Bigger sample, closer to zero?

[ruthlessimon]

They would all be zero (ish) on a large enough sample?

Could be. This is one of those awkward dilemmas - a sample that's too big is called generic; & one that''s too small gets called insignificant.

The bit that's "interesting" was a sample of 564 trades over a 4mth period.

[elofan0]

price stats would change from different events

https://www.flatstats.co.uk/blog/turf/nursery1.html

[ColinB]

Big thanks Spreadbetting, these figures more or less confirm an idea that has been floating around in my head for a while.
If I could ask 1 more favour .... Could you confirm the date range that these figures were compiled in.
This will enable me to keep my preferred price range up to date from here on in.
Much appreciated,

[spreadbetting]

Big thanks Spreadbetting, these figures more or less confirm an idea that has been floating around in my head for a while.
If I could ask 1 more favour .... Could you confirm the date range that these figures were compiled in.
This will enable me to keep my preferred price range up to date from here on in.
Much appreciated,

27-03-2008 to 16-10-2018 , think it's all the data files since Betfair started releasing them. Think that's why some of the data has been reported as 1001, rather than 1000, in the early files. I'd also imagine the BSP prices are a lot closer to 100% books these days but the older data shouldn't skew the final figures much

[ps1967]

I can do you a dump from my database but there are over 50'000 unique BSP's that have been returned so you'll have to tweak the file yourself if you want it in bands, I can dump out the number of selection, number of winners, number of dead heats so easy enough to work out strie rates from those

Yes please

Here you go hopefully it's all quite obvious, in xlsx and wouldn't let me upload to the forum as csv or xls for some reason probably too large for the forum but only Mb's

http://www.mediafire.com/file/6owe99dlz ... .xlsx/file

Shouldn't be hard for you to query it in bands with a few sumifs, I stuck a simple range checker on it

You wouldn't happen to have something like this for greyhounds would you? Or any idea where I could possibly get something similar?

[spreadbetting]

Never bothered to collect the greyhound files but they're all here if you need them

https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices

There's an excel scraper somewhere on the site so you can automate the downloading of them

Here's the downloader Nigel made

viewtopic.php?f=54&t=14395

[ColinB]

Many thanks for the info, much appreciated.