Has anyone got any stats on the price of winners compared to how often they win that they could share...
For example.
Even money has a 50% implied chance but what is the actual strike rate of even money horses at sp?
Trying to gather data for each odds... whether it is industry sp or betfair sp I wouldn’t mind...
Thanks
Winning Price stats
Wouldn’t it be 50%?SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:52 amHas anyone got any stats on the price of winners compared to how often they win that they could share...
For example.
Even money has a 50% implied chance but what is the actual strike rate of even money horses at sp?
Trying to gather data for each odds... whether it is industry sp or betfair sp I wouldn’t mind...
Thanks
- SeaHorseRacing
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I just want to see how effecient the market is..Gauss wrote: ↑Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:34 amWouldn’t it be 50%?SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:52 amHas anyone got any stats on the price of winners compared to how often they win that they could share...
For example.
Even money has a 50% implied chance but what is the actual strike rate of even money horses at sp?
Trying to gather data for each odds... whether it is industry sp or betfair sp I wouldn’t mind...
Thanks
No I suspect that at industry sp the strike rate will be lower then the odds.
- wearthefoxhat
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Best I can do: (Evs to 11/8 category combined)SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:52 amHas anyone got any stats on the price of winners compared to how often they win that they could share...
For example.
Even money has a 50% implied chance but what is the actual strike rate of even money horses at sp?
Trying to gather data for each odds... whether it is industry sp or betfair sp I wouldn’t mind...
Thanks
Evs to 11/8 @ ISP since 2012 to-date
Evs to 11/8 @ BSP since 2012 to-date - No Comms
Evs to 11/8 @ BSP since 2012 to-date - 5% comms
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I can do you a dump from my database but there are over 50'000 unique BSP's that have been returned so you'll have to tweak the file yourself if you want it in bands, I can dump out the number of selection, number of winners, number of dead heats so easy enough to work out strie rates from those
Since 2009 there has been 496 with a BSP of 2.0 (50% IP)SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:52 am
Even money has a 50% implied chance but what is the actual strike rate of even money horses at sp?
243 Won (48.99%)
253 Lost
1103 had a BSP of 3.0 (33.33% IP)
366 Won (33.18%)
737 Lost
- SeaHorseRacing
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Yes pleasespreadbetting wrote: ↑Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:57 pmI can do you a dump from my database but there are over 50'000 unique BSP's that have been returned so you'll have to tweak the file yourself if you want it in bands, I can dump out the number of selection, number of winners, number of dead heats so easy enough to work out strie rates from those
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- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
Here you go hopefully it's all quite obvious, in xlsx and wouldn't let me upload to the forum as csv or xls for some reason probably too large for the forum but only Mb'sSeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:38 pmYes pleasespreadbetting wrote: ↑Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:57 pmI can do you a dump from my database but there are over 50'000 unique BSP's that have been returned so you'll have to tweak the file yourself if you want it in bands, I can dump out the number of selection, number of winners, number of dead heats so easy enough to work out strie rates from those
http://www.mediafire.com/file/6owe99dlz ... .xlsx/file
Shouldn't be hard for you to query it in bands with a few sumifs, I stuck a simple range checker on it
- SeaHorseRacing
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spreadbetting wrote: ↑Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:07 pmHere you go hopefully it's all quite obvious, in xlsx and wouldn't let me upload to the forum as csv or xls for some reason probably too large for the forum but only Mb'sSeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:38 pmYes pleasespreadbetting wrote: ↑Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:57 pmI can do you a dump from my database but there are over 50'000 unique BSP's that have been returned so you'll have to tweak the file yourself if you want it in bands, I can dump out the number of selection, number of winners, number of dead heats so easy enough to work out strie rates from those
http://www.mediafire.com/file/6owe99dlz ... .xlsx/file
Shouldn't be hard for you to query it in bands with a few sumifs, I stuck a simple range checker on it
Interesting that there’s little pockets of profits... for example 3.06 to 3.09..
Think this is a coincidence? Maybe just noise?
Just above every crossover point 2 3 6 all showing a profit.
Drat, I was 1.01% out on my reckoning, forgot to account for variance.Dallas wrote: ↑Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:02 pmSince 2009 there has been 496 with a BSP of 2.0 (50% IP)SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:52 am
Even money has a 50% implied chance but what is the actual strike rate of even money horses at sp?
243 Won (48.99%)
253 Lost
1103 had a BSP of 3.0 (33.33% IP)
366 Won (33.18%)
737 Lost