Winning Price stats

The sport of kings.
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Has anyone got any stats on the price of winners compared to how often they win that they could share...

For example.

Even money has a 50% implied chance but what is the actual strike rate of even money horses at sp?

Trying to gather data for each odds... whether it is industry sp or betfair sp I wouldn’t mind...

Thanks
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Gauss
Posts: 137
Joined: Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:11 am

SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:52 am
Has anyone got any stats on the price of winners compared to how often they win that they could share...

For example.

Even money has a 50% implied chance but what is the actual strike rate of even money horses at sp?

Trying to gather data for each odds... whether it is industry sp or betfair sp I wouldn’t mind...

Thanks
Wouldn’t it be 50%?
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Gauss wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:34 am
SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:52 am
Has anyone got any stats on the price of winners compared to how often they win that they could share...

For example.

Even money has a 50% implied chance but what is the actual strike rate of even money horses at sp?

Trying to gather data for each odds... whether it is industry sp or betfair sp I wouldn’t mind...

Thanks
Wouldn’t it be 50%?
I just want to see how effecient the market is..

No I suspect that at industry sp the strike rate will be lower then the odds.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3207
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:52 am
Has anyone got any stats on the price of winners compared to how often they win that they could share...

For example.

Even money has a 50% implied chance but what is the actual strike rate of even money horses at sp?

Trying to gather data for each odds... whether it is industry sp or betfair sp I wouldn’t mind...

Thanks
Best I can do: (Evs to 11/8 category combined)

Evs to 11/8 @ ISP since 2012 to-date
Evsto11-8ISP.PNG
Evs to 11/8 @ BSP since 2012 to-date - No Comms
0%BSP.PNG
Evs to 11/8 @ BSP since 2012 to-date - 5% comms
5%BSP.PNG
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Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Evs bookies price last 10 years

SR 45.1%

424/941
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liero1
Posts: 36
Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:28 pm

Use Adrian Masseys database mate, got all you need..
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

I can do you a dump from my database but there are over 50'000 unique BSP's that have been returned so you'll have to tweak the file yourself if you want it in bands, I can dump out the number of selection, number of winners, number of dead heats so easy enough to work out strie rates from those
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Dallas
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Location: Working From Home

SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:52 am

Even money has a 50% implied chance but what is the actual strike rate of even money horses at sp?
Since 2009 there has been 496 with a BSP of 2.0 (50% IP)
243 Won (48.99%)
253 Lost

1103 had a BSP of 3.0 (33.33% IP)
366 Won (33.18%)
737 Lost
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gstar1975
Posts: 615
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2011 11:59 am

What about the BSPs with 2.01 or 2.04, 1.98 etc or 3.04 etc?
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:57 pm
I can do you a dump from my database but there are over 50'000 unique BSP's that have been returned so you'll have to tweak the file yourself if you want it in bands, I can dump out the number of selection, number of winners, number of dead heats so easy enough to work out strie rates from those
Yes please
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Thanks for all your responses
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:38 pm
spreadbetting wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:57 pm
I can do you a dump from my database but there are over 50'000 unique BSP's that have been returned so you'll have to tweak the file yourself if you want it in bands, I can dump out the number of selection, number of winners, number of dead heats so easy enough to work out strie rates from those
Yes please
Here you go hopefully it's all quite obvious, in xlsx and wouldn't let me upload to the forum as csv or xls for some reason probably too large for the forum but only Mb's

http://www.mediafire.com/file/6owe99dlz ... .xlsx/file

Shouldn't be hard for you to query it in bands with a few sumifs, I stuck a simple range checker on it
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Dallas
Posts: 22674
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Location: Working From Home

gstar1975 wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:28 pm
What about the BSPs with 2.01 or 2.04, 1.98 etc or 3.04 etc?
I don't have the time to do them all I just picked out 2.0 and 3.0 as examples, you can get all the rest from the dump Spreadbetting has kindly uploaded
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:07 pm
SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:38 pm
spreadbetting wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:57 pm
I can do you a dump from my database but there are over 50'000 unique BSP's that have been returned so you'll have to tweak the file yourself if you want it in bands, I can dump out the number of selection, number of winners, number of dead heats so easy enough to work out strie rates from those
Yes please
Here you go hopefully it's all quite obvious, in xlsx and wouldn't let me upload to the forum as csv or xls for some reason probably too large for the forum but only Mb's

http://www.mediafire.com/file/6owe99dlz ... .xlsx/file

Shouldn't be hard for you to query it in bands with a few sumifs, I stuck a simple range checker on it

Interesting that there’s little pockets of profits... for example 3.06 to 3.09..

Think this is a coincidence? Maybe just noise?

Just above every crossover point 2 3 6 all showing a profit.
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Gauss
Posts: 137
Joined: Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:11 am

Dallas wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:02 pm
SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:52 am

Even money has a 50% implied chance but what is the actual strike rate of even money horses at sp?
Since 2009 there has been 496 with a BSP of 2.0 (50% IP)
243 Won (48.99%)
253 Lost

1103 had a BSP of 3.0 (33.33% IP)
366 Won (33.18%)
737 Lost
Drat, I was 1.01% out on my reckoning, forgot to account for variance.
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