Is this just part of the learning?

[cookyweb]

Hi There,

I've been working on my Pre race trading following a couple of posts on this forum and trying to follow the advice given.

I've been working specifically on drifting horses as I noted this being an area where I seem to be much better, my results have definitely improved massively in the last month or so but I wanted to run something past you guys.

In the last week and a half I've been winning in around 80% of my trades, sometimes more. On Sunday I only had 2 losses out of 16 trades, then Monday to Wednesday evenings only 3 losses from 15.

However last night I just couldn't hit a winning trade, I felt a bit lost and like nothing I'd been doing was working, I lost 5 of 7 and lost everything I'd built up over the last week and a half.

So my question is, is that just how it goes in Trading at times? where you are using the same strategies but they just don't work, like an off day?

Its easy to think I'm on the wrong track just because of one bad day, but I really thought I'd turned a huge corner and now I feel a bit like it was just a fluke or a lucky run if that makes sense.

I'm just looking for some inspiration I guess.

Thank you

Cookyweb.

[PDC]

Watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvOf8P98n_Q

[ShaunWhite]

There'll be others more qualified who no doubt give you advice but, yes, the good times and bad times will probably come in patches. Try and find out what was different about that poor session (low vol, high volatility?) and do your best to avoid them. Often the best thing to do is nothing.

Your overall strike rate was 28/38 (73% +) That's GOOD. The only issue seems to have been that 5 losers blew what you'd earned on the other 33.
Have a long look at your money management and be brutally honest with yourself about whether your initial gains were sensible given the risks you're taking and why the 5 losers were so big. Maybe it was red mist caused by one big loser and it's something you can learn to control, or maybe you're running too high a risk day in day out and it was inevitable it was going to bite you on the arse one day.

[Gauss]

If I may put in my tuppence worth?, if you’ve been doing exactly the same thing throughout just see it out as it will more than likely be down to variance, be totally mechanical in your execution and you should come out on top.

The markets are a mechanism, you just need to know where to place your cog to unlock or release what you think you are able to perceive.

[cookyweb]

Hi All,

As always thanks for the replies, that video link from Peter is brilliant, I've actually seen that one recently and although it makes perfect sense I suppose when you have a bad run you sort of start to doubt it and lose trust in yourself a little.

And just to follow up on the other reply I did see the red mist after a big ish loss and that without doubt is why I ended up losing all I'd built up, had I just took the losses instead of clicking and chasing trying to claw it back they wouldn't have been as large and I'd still be in profit.

I know I'm sort of answering my own question here and you could argue it's a pointless post, but it does just help to actually write it down and get feedback from others as it helps it sink in.

Thanks All!

[PDC]

And just to follow up on the other reply I did see the red mist after a big ish loss and that without doubt is why I ended up losing all I'd built up, had I just took the losses instead of clicking and chasing trying to claw it back they wouldn't have been as large and I'd still be in profit.

It can often pay to walk away for the rest of the day or even just for a cup of tea after a loss if it is a bad one and until you can learn to just accept it and move on to the next race without emotion.

[napshnap]

It can be variance, but it also can be that your strategy doesn't fit certain days of the week, daytime, types of race, venues and etcetera. I have to be very picky to make my employ strategy profitable.

[Derek27]

Hi There,

I've been working on my Pre race trading following a couple of posts on this forum and trying to follow the advice given.

I've been working specifically on drifting horses as I noted this being an area where I seem to be much better, my results have definitely improved massively in the last month or so but I wanted to run something past you guys.

In the last week and a half I've been winning in around 80% of my trades, sometimes more. On Sunday I only had 2 losses out of 16 trades, then Monday to Wednesday evenings only 3 losses from 15.

However last night I just couldn't hit a winning trade, I felt a bit lost and like nothing I'd been doing was working, I lost 5 of 7 and lost everything I'd built up over the last week and a half.

So my question is, is that just how it goes in Trading at times? where you are using the same strategies but they just don't work, like an off day?

Its easy to think I'm on the wrong track just because of one bad day, but I really thought I'd turned a huge corner and now I feel a bit like it was just a fluke or a lucky run if that makes sense.

I'm just looking for some inspiration I guess.

Thank you

Cookyweb.

If you toss a coin six times a day, you'd expect a close to 50% strike-rate at the end of the year, but for a particular day, there's a 1 in 64 chance of getting 0% and a 1 in 64 chance of getting 100%. As Peter suggested in his video you have to look long term when assessing your results.

That said, you need to be aware of changes in market activity and the psychological effects of getting overconfident and more relaxed about opening trades and stakes, something that even the most experienced traders can fall foul of.

[cookyweb]

Thank you for all the replies, such good advice as always and I'll take it all on board.

I've been trading this afternoon and am currently 6 trades 6 wins and £5.21 up (I'm only using £10 stakes).

I know there's so much said about the mind and the Phycology but I am starting to see just how vital that is, I've not played it down at all I've taken it very seriously but i'm only now starting to realise it's importance.

Cookyweb

[ruthlessimon]

Psychology aint getting me to Marbella - & I need some Vitamin D

It's a vital supplement sure; but I personally put more emphasis on the edge side.

I need oil to run a car properly - but where do I put the oil if I don't have an engine.

Paradoxically, a strong edge benefits a trader with a bad mentality. IMO, the mentality can always be learnt (it's everywhere) - what's difficult to learn is the edge side. It's rare that any analysis techniques will be posted on the forum (or maybe I've been livn' under a rock - but SB also thinks most advice on the forum is next to useless (except advice given to me) ), but I understand why - because done right, becomes a genuine edge.

Also, as a side, I honestly believe most people (who claim they have an edge) wouldn't be able to explain their edges simply (even in private) - which I think is fundamental to their failure. There's a great video of a senior prop-trader, asking new inters what their edge is - & he reckoned there was a correlation between those who gave "fuzzy/unsure" answers, & those who quit/removed from the firm after a few months.

I remember when I told Shaun about a pattern - I explained it in like 6 words - & he was able to go & verify it.

So my question would be, are you absolutely sure it's an edge - & why? (i.e. over the last 1000 markets it's +ve etc)

[ShaunWhite]

IMO, the mentality can always be learnt (it's everywhere)

I agree with most of what you said but I disagree with the quoted bit and always will. Expecting 100% of 'flawed' people to be able to permenantly alter the fundamentals of their personality takes a big stretch of the imagination. Klingon logic about edges just doesn't cut it, and if it does for you then that's probably because of your pre-existing personality not something that's easily over come by listening to Brad Goodman.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czFe4TP14MM

[ruthlessimon]

Expecting 100% of 'flawed' people to be able to permenantly alter the fundamentals of their personality takes a big stretch of the imagination

I'm constantly being told my personality isn't right, from all sides! Peter would call me flawed (& he has), Dallas would, SB would, Linus would, etc etc

But accepting that as fait accompli - to me - is a regression. & I'm honestly surprised more people don't have that view.

The person in the world with the best psychology (i.e. a bot) - is still limited by the quality of their edge. The only way for that person to improve is by improving the edge - which I believe - has a much higher ceiling than simply reading Trading in the Zone.

It's bloody difficult though!!

[ruthlessimon]

Expecting 100% of 'flawed' people to be able to permenantly alter the fundamentals of their personality takes a big stretch of the imagination

I would put myself in a very similar bracket to Jeff - & Peter probably would too.

The only difference - I don't think Jeff even had an edge - or understood his edge. I know this for a fact, because there were aspects of pre-race that he denied were useful - because he couldn't see it in his own data.

Now, I have a lot of respect for that. I far prefer someone to have principals that they can stick by (& Shaun you're one of em ) - than bending to wind & accepting/believing whatever TPTB say (without fully understanding it themselves).

For example, I only accepted race type was an important variable - when I saw it in my own data/analysis. Until that day, I would've been against race type - & I would cite my analysis (during that period of time - viewtopic.php?p=167463#p167463) - which someone who did understand how race type was an edge, had a chance to correct (i.e. "you need to look at it this way..") - that said; there's no way I'd post something like that publicly!

That is why Jeff failed imho.

Now I'm assuming the silver spoon wasn't forced down Jeff's throat. But if it was, he's the utter minority. Most people with a simple edge forced down their throats won't refute it!

P.S. Jeff if you're reading this, drop me a PM & I'll walk you through it - just so you can prove em wrong. It's all about edge, psychology 2nd. Missin' yah

[wearthefoxhat]

Hi There,

I've been working on my Pre race trading following a couple of posts on this forum and trying to follow the advice given.

I've been working specifically on drifting horses as I noted this being an area where I seem to be much better, my results have definitely improved massively in the last month or so but I wanted to run something past you guys.

In the last week and a half I've been winning in around 80% of my trades, sometimes more. On Sunday I only had 2 losses out of 16 trades, then Monday to Wednesday evenings only 3 losses from 15.

However last night I just couldn't hit a winning trade, I felt a bit lost and like nothing I'd been doing was working, I lost 5 of 7 and lost everything I'd built up over the last week and a half.

So my question is, is that just how it goes in Trading at times? where you are using the same strategies but they just don't work, like an off day?

Its easy to think I'm on the wrong track just because of one bad day, but I really thought I'd turned a huge corner and now I feel a bit like it was just a fluke or a lucky run if that makes sense.

I'm just looking for some inspiration I guess.

Thank you

Cookyweb.

FWIW, when I have losing trade(s), I compliment the skill/success of the trader(s) that made a profit. (my loss). Essentially, I leave my ego at the door. There are better traders than me out there that can capitalise on my mistake(s), however, when I get it right, I'll pat myself on the back and accept my success and believe I'm learning and moving forward in the right direction.

In the early days, I recognised I needed a push in the right direction, so I attended PW's masterclass a while ago. This seemed to "unlock" some of the mystery and sorted the wheat from the chaff. It wasn't put on a plate, but there was enough good information on offer to help me focus in on the key profitable areas.

We all learn in different ways and at our own pace, try not to be too hard on yourself. Also try and enjoy the process. If it feels like a chore, take a break and come back to it another time.

I also found L2B trading (to liability) profitable for long periods before being undone by one or two results. I now focus more on B2L momentum trades as "punters" tend to like to latch onto a gamble in the old fashion way.

[Bog]

I've been trading this afternoon and am currently 6 trades 6 wins and £5.21 up (I'm only using £10 stakes)
Cookyweb

Hi. Do you check your p & l often, after every race? Try to focus more on trading the right way all the time and focus less on how many races you won and how much you are up in a day. We need to think long term, in my opinion it's not important how many races you won in a day.

For me checking p & l too often it's not a good habit, you will put pressure on yourself to produce positive results and after a bad trade, if you are not prepared, you can lose control and start chasing losses.

Every race it's different, don't expect nothing from it, just trade how you normally trade and move on to the next one. Start from zero every race, don't bring your past results into the next race.

Have discipline, trust the process, be patient and good results will come.