Why Am I so bad at Backing First?

The sport of kings.
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weemac
Posts: 1216
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:16 pm

Euler wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:36 pm
Most people don't seem to anticipate a move on steamers....
And what would cause most people to do so?
Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

Cookyweb - before you conclude that you are better at picking a drifter be sure that that is true - and if it is true that's a great skill to have. I used to think that of myself, believing that it was easier to spot weakness than strength - but in reality I found that I was just more likely to be looking further back in the field - and just happened to be 'right' more frequently - but when I was wrong it could be very punishing.
Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:25 pm
The book being a closed system
Although with xm etc it is 'closed', I would suggest that the 'container' is not completely rigid and has a fair degree of flexibility. We can witness this from the fluctuating book percentages even when the orders are flowing well.
cookyweb
Posts: 70
Joined: Sun Apr 29, 2018 5:00 pm

Hi Jukebox,

Your answer is exactly why I like this forum so much as it always gets you thinking

I have noticed that I’m mainly laying the 3rd or 4th horse for example, very rarely the favourite

I feel like I’m missing one key ingredient or angle of view that is holding me back at the minute, something that just needs to click and everything else will fit into place, frustrating times at the moment but I will keep plugging away

Thank for your answer and to everyone else who took the time to respond

Cookyweb
cappy77
Posts: 9
Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:12 pm

This is a good question by the OP, my preference has always been to lay first and for some reason it just suits me better, but when I first started and in first few years because of my bank I always limited to backing first but once I stopped doing this I very quickly began to notice a shift in my overall results
cookyweb
Posts: 70
Joined: Sun Apr 29, 2018 5:00 pm

I’ve watched back through peters videos where he backs first, interestingly I noticed he backs first in 6 videos but lays first in about 16

Anyway, I see a common theme in the backing ones, 2 common themes actually, but seeing that I’m more confused haha

I don’t know if I’ve done more harm to my thinking by seeing the similarities, unless I’m missing the point, I’m not sure how to relate that to what I’m doing

Grrrrrr confusing times
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Derek27
Posts: 23478
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

I haven't seen all the videos you're referring to but perhaps the individual reasons and circumstances of each trade are the focal points, rather than a common theme?
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

If you've had a natural tendency to choose drifters then you've probably 'practiced' them far more, so the fact you're weaker at them is to be expected. Perhaps have days, or a spells, when you force yourself to ONLY trade streamers..... And try to remember how long it took to crack drifters and how you managed it in the end. Be patient with yourself, don't overthink it. Fingers crossed that as your steamers get better, the drifters don't get worse :)

Then again I'm no manual trading wizard so that's all just supposition and generalisations about any kind of learning.
threedogs
Posts: 79
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:24 am

Jukebox wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:55 pm
Cookyweb - before you conclude that you are better at picking a drifter be sure that that is true - and if it is true that's a great skill to have. I used to think that of myself, believing that it was easier to spot weakness than strength - but in reality I found that I was just more likely to be looking further back in the field - and just happened to be 'right' more frequently - but when I was wrong it could be very punishing.
The skill is and thats if it is a skill ..in deciding when you were wrong and how fast you get out and start again and of course it often happens if you get out too early it reverses and you neednt have bothered haha ..
Waiting for confirmation of a drift has srood me well more often than not ...
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