Why Am I so bad at Backing First?

[cookyweb]

Hi All,

I've posted a few times recently about my Pre Race trading and making great progress I feel, I've been focusing heavily on laying first as I seem much better at picking a drifting horse then finding one that's price is shortening.

Historically I just seem to do better with a drifter and notice that I always seem to get stung by the steamers.

Do you have any tips at all for what to look for when backing first ?

What seems to happen to me is I all too often see a horse being supported, it's at the bottom of the range and looking (to me) like breaking through, I get involved and it just goes gradually against me or worse whipsaws back massively before I have chance to react.

I just feel this is a big weak spot in my trading and I also feel like if I improved at this it would improve even more my ability to spot to the drifters.

Do you guys have any advice on what to look for or what to avoid, or what I can do to go away and work on myself?

Thank you.

[Gauss]

Hi All,

I've posted a few times recently about my Pre Race trading and making great progress I feel, I've been focusing heavily on laying first as I seem much better at picking a drifting horse then finding one that's price is shortening.

Historically I just seem to do better with a drifter and notice that I always seem to get stung by the steamers.

Do you have any tips at all for what to look for when backing first ?

What seems to happen to me is I all too often see a horse being supported, it's at the bottom of the range and looking (to me) like breaking through, I get involved and it just goes gradually against me or worse whipsaws back massively before I have chance to react.

I just feel this is a big weak spot in my trading and I also feel like if I improved at this it would improve even more my ability to spot to the drifters.

Do you guys have any advice on what to look for or what to avoid, or what I can do to go away and work on myself?

Thank you.

Watch Peter’s videos, take note of markets in which he backs, there is a common theme there.

[iambic_pentameter]

Often, the price will go through the bottom of the range and come back before eventually going through. The trick is to not dive in at the first opportunity. Watch and see what is happening on the other runners.

It can sometimes be worth waiting till the previous race has finished as well - the money coming in from that market could change the price.

In the short term, a suggestion - rather than entering trades, just watch the market and gain some experience of what is happening.

Best of luck

Iambic

[Gauss]

If it’s any consolation cooky I had exactly that same problem until I sat down & thought about it, had to change my way of thinking.

[cookyweb]

Thank you for the replies, very much appreciated.

That's interesting Gauss that you went through the same stage, I do try to just watch the markets and not get involved but I feel like one thing is just not clicking, or I'm looking at it wrong.

I'm going to do as you said and watch Peters videos again over the weekend, hopefully something will jump out at me or click into place.

Cheers

[Derek27]

Stake size also has a bearing. I used to get caught out by sharp moves causing me to red-up. But reducing stakes gave me more time and leeway to get on the reversal and close for a profit.

[Euler]

Most people don't seem to anticipate a move on steamers, they seem to wait for confirmation then back it, but it's almost inevitable that you get a pullback on the way to a bigger steam.

[ruthlessimon]

Isn't this a bit of paradox?

The book being a closed system arguably makes it an invalid statement. In theory, when you profit laying something, you could've profited backing something else. Which means by being good at spotting layers, implies you're good at spotting steamers. & you just choose to lay

That said, it is much more complicated than that - & a reason (why I personally) struggle so badly with drifters (specific types of drifters)

[Euler]

If you look at prospect theory, you will see that it is indeed a paradox, but also embedded in the way the human mind works, apart from in people like me though

This is where psychology and logical trading processes merge.

[ruthlessimon]

If you look at prospect theory, you will see that it is indeed a paradox, but also embedded in the way the human mind works, apart from in people like me though

For me it just drives me psychotic outside of trading hours

I was looking at an edge on "a runner", which implied it was profitable in the opposite direction "on another runner" - but it wasn't.. & I'm like..

[weemac]

Most people don't seem to anticipate a move on steamers....

And what would cause most people to do so?

[Jukebox]

Cookyweb - before you conclude that you are better at picking a drifter be sure that that is true - and if it is true that's a great skill to have. I used to think that of myself, believing that it was easier to spot weakness than strength - but in reality I found that I was just more likely to be looking further back in the field - and just happened to be 'right' more frequently - but when I was wrong it could be very punishing.

[Jukebox]

The book being a closed system

Although with xm etc it is 'closed', I would suggest that the 'container' is not completely rigid and has a fair degree of flexibility. We can witness this from the fluctuating book percentages even when the orders are flowing well.

[cookyweb]

Hi Jukebox,

Your answer is exactly why I like this forum so much as it always gets you thinking

I have noticed that I’m mainly laying the 3rd or 4th horse for example, very rarely the favourite

I feel like I’m missing one key ingredient or angle of view that is holding me back at the minute, something that just needs to click and everything else will fit into place, frustrating times at the moment but I will keep plugging away

Thank for your answer and to everyone else who took the time to respond

Cookyweb

[cappy77]

This is a good question by the OP, my preference has always been to lay first and for some reason it just suits me better, but when I first started and in first few years because of my bank I always limited to backing first but once I stopped doing this I very quickly began to notice a shift in my overall results