Horse falling in play trading.

[globi166]

Hi all,

I traded 144 races so far, so not too many. Out of them I had 1 horse that fall. Its a sad situation for a horse and jockey of course, but also sad for me, as my stop loss didn't trigger and huge loss occurred (huge in proportion to my normal losses on that in play trading, not huge in monetary terms as I trade very small stakes so far)
Did anyone knows or have some statistic how often that happens? As I think it may be crucial to the success of my in play trading.

Thanks for your help in advance

Btw only hurdle type race.

[Andriy]

Then you've been lucky so far, long term average for hurdles is pretty much spot on 3% (fell + unseated rider).

[arbitrage16]

Then you've been lucky so far, long term average for hurdles is pretty much spot on 3% (fell + unseated rider).

Interesting stat. Where is this from?

[Andriy]

From my own database, all hurdle races in UK&IRE, 1st Jan 2015 to current date, 10.7k races, 106k runners.

[spreadbetting]

Probably happens more often than you'd think and it'd be interesting to see the prices of the fallers as you'd probably expect the horses being put in contention to fall more often than ones plodding around the courses given a leisurely run. This article is from 2008 but no reason why it wouldn't also apply to todays top jockeys who are obviously going to be riding horses with a chance and pushing them harder to win.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2008/ ... -unseateds



What follows is a list of the top 20 jump jockeys from last season, with figures showing what percentage of their rides ended with a fall or with their being unseated. The statistics are taken from Raceform Interactive's form database and cover a two-year period to the end of September. They relate only to races run over steeplechase fences in Britain.

The sample size varies from 567 rides for Tony McCoy to 169 for Denis O'Regan. Tom O'Brien had the most falls (29) and unseateds (20) and Mick Fitzgerald the fewest falls (5) and unseateds (3). Fitzgerald has since retired, owing to injuries sustained in a fall in the Grand National.
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Fallers

1 Ruby Walsh 7.4% of rides ended with a fall

2 Tom O'Brien 7.3

3 Brian Hughes 6.1

4 Paddy Brennan 5.9

5 Dominic Elsworth 5.5

5 Timmy Murphy 5.5

7 Jason Maguire 4.9

7 Andrew Thornton 4.9

9 Denis O'Regan 4.7

10 Tom Scudamore 4.5

11 Richard Johnson 4.3

12 Noel Fehily 4.2

12 Paul Moloney 4.2

12 Robert Thornton 4.2

15 Graham Lee 4.1

16 Richard McGrath 4.0

17 Tony McCoy 3.7

18 Jamie Moore 3.6

19 Sam Thomas 3.5

20 Mick Fitzgerald 2.9

Unseated riders

1 Tom O'Brien 5% of rides ended with an unseated rider

2 Dominic Elsworth 3.7

3 Jamie Moore 3.3

4 Sam Thomas 2.9

5 Paul Moloney 2.8

6 Timmy Murphy 2.7

7 Ruby Walsh 2.6

8 Denis O'Regan 2.4

9 Brian Hughes 2.2

9 Robert Thornton 2.2

11 Paddy Brennan 2.1

11 Richard Johnson 2.1

11 Jason Maguire 2.1

14 Graham Lee 2.0

14 Richard McGrath 2.0

16 Noel Fehily 1.8

16 Tom Scudamore 1.8

18 Mick Fitzgerald 1.7

18 Andrew Thornton 1.7

20 Tony McCoy 1.4

[Halliday]

From my own database, all hurdle races in UK&IRE, 1st Jan 2015 to current date, 10.7k races, 106k runners.

There’s various sets of stats relating to fallers over both fences and hurdles, including stats on jockeys( Ruby Walsh last obstacle falls ) and trainers ,where the falls occur, price of horse ,distance going , track, size of field etc .All have an impact on the % chance of a horse falling to a greater or lesser extent.

Saw some stats on Irish Racing % of fallers by trainer which was quite an eye opener

The introduction of the “one fit padded hurdle “ at certain courses has reduced the number of fallers.

Think the % greatest variance not suprisingly is by course